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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Thumper
Active Member
Squeeze is looking improbable to me. Shorts have dropped almost 20% in a week and there seem to be plenty of sellers. It will be good overall to get the speculators out and leave mostly value investors.
How is it possible they dropped by 20%? There hasn't been enough volume for that many trades, has there?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
no problem, there's another great site for implied/realized volatility (on individual options and the average IV for options on the security as a whole). Also has Call/Put volumes daily. Super helpful if you ever use options and dont want to be ripped off (selling puts at times of high IV, buying them back at low IV is pretty easy to do with tesla since its IV on puts gets absurd).
Here's that site if your interested
International Securities Exchange, LLC. :: Statistics :: Quotes, Volatility & Calculator
Yah I agree, that 20% drop in short interest was mostly from yesterday, explains the huge volume. But the price action wasn't nearly what I expected or enough to cause the rest to panic cover, which is what you need.
Today was the slow and steady reshort throughout the day, hence its trading like crap all day. No short squeeze imminent, unless there's news. It's not going to happen.
I sold some dec 31 calls to offset a bit of my gains (about 1/5 of pos) and picked up some Jan 14 puts, 15 strike for 1.90. The puts are not because I'm bearish, but so I can sell a Jan 14 strike 30 puts for a debit spread when it pulls back (and IV rises a bit, it's reaching historical lows). I don't have the $ to just do naked puts in significant amounts, so I spreads. I'll post the trade when I do it. Planning on selling when the stock hits that new support line (at about 31.70 right now).
Repost of the chart with the new support line. I'd update it but traveling ATM. From Friday I think.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/taking%20off.JPG
(Where the line came from and was proven)
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla%20openin/11.19.JPG
Despite Tesla's terrible trading today, it's still in a strong uptrend until it breaks that support line. After today, it will likely test it at the very least. Which means there's about a dollar more to the downside at these levels, wait till it hits the line to buy calls. Then bak to resistance at 33 then only Goldman knows.
Kinda decided I'm going to pretend to be a market maker for tesla stock and enjoy the ride up. I'm relatively new to this stuff (2 years, junior at JHU majoring in applied math/econ) and only working with 7 grand for now(+margin
, so take anything I say with a grain of salt. On a completely unrelated note, I've been applying for summer internships and just found this tesla posting:
Tesla - [url]www.teslamotors.com | High Performance, All Electric Vehicles[/url]
It looks really sweet. And seems incredibly perfect for someone like me who loves the idea of tesla and would work there but has no engineering background. Unclear if it's a summer internship though.
Anyone got any suggestions for the cover letter? Think I should mention my ventures into Tesla equity or stick with the traditional template?
If any Tesla staff read this, I'd love some tips or just info about the application process. PM or Email.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Which graph are you looking at? I think the percentages are precent of daily trading volume, or something like that. Not total short interest.
^
This
The charts aren't labeled very well. See how short and long always sum to 100% (which is also the daily volume)
The short % is the number of shares that are shorted in order to meet market demand. So yesterday, with a short % of 30%, that means that the majority (70%) of shares which were bought on the market came from people selling their shares of tesla stock. Only 30% of shares were short (i.e. created out of thin air). It's bullish because the shorts were not eager to increase their position (but i suspect today's number will tell a different story) but more bearish because the stock didn't move up very much, despite very little short pressure.
I'm going to write a more fluid explanation after I finish my internship applications.
But don't loose hope yet still in a super strong upward channel. If it doesn't break 31.70.
palmer_md
Member
I don't know if it is just my computer or what, but people keep writing "this" and then there is not any attachment or link attached. The only graph I saw was from way up thread.... http://www.shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=tsla It does show short going from 60% to 30% in a week, but I'm not sure how to interpret the graph. Perhaps it is just the percent on the day and not the total percent.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sorry if that was confusing. I also need to stop using the term Short Interest. Short Activity would be more descriptive.
Just did a recap on the Hourly and I actually still really like what i'm seeing.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-21%20at%208.31.50%20PM.png
closed above the 50 and 30 ma. just a healthy pullback imo.
Just did a recap on the Hourly and I actually still really like what i'm seeing.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/tsla/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-21%20at%208.31.50%20PM.png
closed above the 50 and 30 ma. just a healthy pullback imo.
Worth posting here (sorry if I missed it):
A lot of things I have had in my mind put to paper really well.
Will Tesla Disrupt? - Seeking Alpha
Not really much pushback in the comments. Anyone here see any holes in his calcs? (JPR3's optimistic comment is noted)
I think he missed something in the Tesla-positive but can't put my finger on it.
A lot of things I have had in my mind put to paper really well.
Will Tesla Disrupt? - Seeking Alpha
Not really much pushback in the comments. Anyone here see any holes in his calcs? (JPR3's optimistic comment is noted)
I think he missed something in the Tesla-positive but can't put my finger on it.
Zzzz...
Member
Really interesting article to read. Lots of work involved, and I want to thank author for writing it.
Few things I want to point out. 85kWh Model S uses ~7600 cells 46g each. That totals to ~350kg battery cells weight. Model S weight 2,100Kg.
By using cells with twice the specific energy density - how big would be weight savings? Obvious savings of cells weight, smaller battery pack, some savings of the support structure... But I do not feel that those combined would bring over 20% weight reduction, shaving off over 420kg from Model S (that is more then all cells of 85kWh pack weights!). After all you still have to carry 68kWh pack on board.
And his "optimistic" Model S shaving off 26%, or 545 kg!
$444 is a price per kWh at which TM sells extra capacity to customers. But that price include distribution, battery pack production(bigger pack cost more) and margins of premium class car. The price that TM paying Panasonic probably do not not exceed $300. Which is realistic guess, you can find li-ion cells(LiFePO4) that retails online at $400 per kWh.
So while he is talking about predictions of $125 and $175 per kWh, that is wholesale price and should be compared to current wholesale price of the cells, compared to less then $300 and not to $444. Not to mention that those prediction most likely overoptimistic to get in two to three years timeframe.
That said he used 2x multiplier in his calculations, but I still feel like reality would be less rosy.
Nevertheless awesome read.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Yes, I agree expecting 2x by 2015 is probably slightly unrealistic. However, eventually we'll get there. Elon sounded like the battery improvements in the next few years, for start of Gen III, will be *very* good.
Just re-reading this thread, and that quote explains for me why EM was making such a point of mentioning "cash flow break-even" for Nov. 2012. MS thought it would be a "watershed accomplishment" if it were achieved sometime in 2013!!
"Watershed"; no wonder EM now feels they've passed beyond the Valley of Death. Cash flow break-even about 10X faster than the optimistic scenario MS proposed.
Just re-reading this thread, thought I'd correct this mis-apprehension.
If the share proceeds improve the company's worth/valuation by 5% or more, there is no true dilution. You have a slightly smaller share of a slightly larger pie, and share value is stable or higher.
But if the share proceeds are just to feed cash burn, and don't improve matters beyond staving off collapse, then dilution has occurred and per-share value drops.
Re-reading old comments, and thought I'd expand your universe a little.
I'm way right of center, and support Tesla enthusiastically. I think the eco agenda and assumptions are 90% dreck, and disagree with Elon's goal/analysis of oil dependance and CO2 reduction.
My conclusions, which have real-world data behind them vs. seriously incompetent primitive climate models, are that CO2 is a minute marginal player whose climate effects are trivial, readily and thoroughly counter-acted and swamped by the dominant water feedback cycles. CO2 levels, moreover, are almost entirely determined by sea water outgassing when warming (in multi-century and multi-millennium cycles) and absorption when cooling. That warming is mainly driven by cloudiness over the Western Pacific, or rather lack of cloud which permits solar heating.
CO2 levels are crucially involved with life processes; it is exploited by plants and phytoplankton which laid down coal and limestone etc. and continue to do so. These processes are almost too efficient for their own good; we are only now recovering from the near-famine levels of the previous few centuries. We and our crops would do much better at 1,000 ppm. With little or no warming effect, unfortunately: the current warming cycle is the lowest in a declining sequence since the big one that melted the ice sheets over much of the Northern Hemisphere. You won't like it if the dip currently beginning gets back to 19th C lows, or worse. Not to mention the possible overdue return of the big sheets.
As for oil, frac'ed tight oil reserves have about quintupled US reserves in the last 3 yrs., to the point that they equal the rest of the world combined. The US is doomed to be an Oil Empire for centuries to come. Obama's blocking of approvals to drill on federal lands is a trivial and temporary delay; private plays are more than enough to push capacity to the limit for many decades to come.
So, why Tesla? It's simply got superior technology, which improves energy efficiency and quality of life for all who use it.
Remember that long-term TM sees its sales and market split about in equal thirds: US, EU, Asia. (I think the Asia ramp-up may be the most interesting and dynamic, when it begins!)
Except that there seems to be a production slow down this last week in gearing up for Canadian Sigs and GP. It could just be the holiday though.
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