-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
- Start date
-
- Tags
- investment market TSLA
- Status
The slowdown IMHO started right after the election/Q3 earnings.The frequency in which "bursting with pride"new owners posted seems one fourth of the mid october rate.Now unfortunately since the delivery spreadsheet is no longer accessible/open/whatever it might only be a feeling, but anyway....
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
As usual, I have no clue. But the volume has been low, so it probably doesn't take much to change the price. I have to sell some (75-100 shares) in the next two or three weeks, so I still want it to go up some more.
getting worried. testing that support line
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-27%20at%2012.33.38%20PM.png
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-27%20at%2012.33.38%20PM.png
Something just occurred to me. I wonder if Tesla plans to open another factory to accommodate the future demand for the 3rd Gen.
In theory the Tesla factory in California can accommodate demand for approximately 500k cars.
However, I suspect at the current reservation rate, they are looking at demand for the Model S at being 30-40k per year. This will likely jump to 50-60k fairly soon. If Reservations jump by 30% Quarterly for the next 2 quarters, this will happen. I think they might come in faster. Pricing isn't even available for Europe yet. I see no reason they cannot achieve 300 reservations per day by the end of next year. 150-180 in USA, 80-100 in Europe, and 20-40 in Asia seems realistic. They currently have no significant presence in Asia and I expect this will change fairly quickly, especially with the Chinese government pushing for Electric Vehicles. Once this happens the achievable number could be much higher.
The Model S and X is a western made high end luxury sedan that packs Amazing performance, is priced competitively, and is considered to be the best car on the Road. I have a hard time believing those in the Market for a high end car won't look at Tesla.
I wonder if there is a figure for what 5-10% of the intended market in China would be?
I suspect this is more then achievable once the car is approved. As for the rest of Asia, I would love to see what possible future demand will look like. (Future demand being 1-2 years from now). I find it difficult to find a reason they won't see demand of 300-400 per day (Especially accounting for the Model X).
300-400 Reservations annualized is 109,500 - 146,000 per year. The supercharge network isn't up and running yet, and these figures appear to be reasonable. I suepect we'll see huge jumps in the reservation rate following any Positive News. I see no reason that 200-400k reservations won't be achievable for the Gen 3, especially with demand for the Model S being this high. This would put them at 500k cars per year by 2015-2016. I think these numbers may be too low. With public perception being that the Model S and Roadster are a rich persons toy, I have a very good feeling they will change their mind once the 30k car comes around. (If not sooner). A 30k Bluestar will be an undeniable value proposition. I wouldn't be surprised if demand exceeds anyones wildest expectations.
Any thoughts? I have seen the reports published by "Major Analysts" and they seem to discount the rate at which reservations are coming in. They also don't accept the 25% Gross Margins as realistic. Most seem to model for 16-18% Gross Margins and assume they won't deliver 20k cars in 2013. The "Analysis" I have seen seems to only model for 100k Gen 3 in 2016. Something seems very fishy about the "Expert" valuations. Any thoughts? If Demand is Europe is high enough, it might make sense for them to seek out another "Discounted Acquisition" which would allow to engage in further expansion. By that point they might be able to build their own from scratch with the money they'll be bringing in. 146,000 x 70,000 = 10,220,000,000 (400,000 x 40,000 or 16,000,000,000) = 26,220,000,000 x .25 = 6.5billion in profit - 1billion operating expenses = 5.5billion in earnings. 5.5billion x 20 = 110billion valuation.
The only hiccup I am able to spot is if the NADA is able to force Tesla to close all stores. I see this as very unlikely. I surely must be missing something, otherwise the media would be all over this. Am I?
Any thoughts?
In theory the Tesla factory in California can accommodate demand for approximately 500k cars.
However, I suspect at the current reservation rate, they are looking at demand for the Model S at being 30-40k per year. This will likely jump to 50-60k fairly soon. If Reservations jump by 30% Quarterly for the next 2 quarters, this will happen. I think they might come in faster. Pricing isn't even available for Europe yet. I see no reason they cannot achieve 300 reservations per day by the end of next year. 150-180 in USA, 80-100 in Europe, and 20-40 in Asia seems realistic. They currently have no significant presence in Asia and I expect this will change fairly quickly, especially with the Chinese government pushing for Electric Vehicles. Once this happens the achievable number could be much higher.
The Model S and X is a western made high end luxury sedan that packs Amazing performance, is priced competitively, and is considered to be the best car on the Road. I have a hard time believing those in the Market for a high end car won't look at Tesla.
I wonder if there is a figure for what 5-10% of the intended market in China would be?
I suspect this is more then achievable once the car is approved. As for the rest of Asia, I would love to see what possible future demand will look like. (Future demand being 1-2 years from now). I find it difficult to find a reason they won't see demand of 300-400 per day (Especially accounting for the Model X).
300-400 Reservations annualized is 109,500 - 146,000 per year. The supercharge network isn't up and running yet, and these figures appear to be reasonable. I suepect we'll see huge jumps in the reservation rate following any Positive News. I see no reason that 200-400k reservations won't be achievable for the Gen 3, especially with demand for the Model S being this high. This would put them at 500k cars per year by 2015-2016. I think these numbers may be too low. With public perception being that the Model S and Roadster are a rich persons toy, I have a very good feeling they will change their mind once the 30k car comes around. (If not sooner). A 30k Bluestar will be an undeniable value proposition. I wouldn't be surprised if demand exceeds anyones wildest expectations.
Any thoughts? I have seen the reports published by "Major Analysts" and they seem to discount the rate at which reservations are coming in. They also don't accept the 25% Gross Margins as realistic. Most seem to model for 16-18% Gross Margins and assume they won't deliver 20k cars in 2013. The "Analysis" I have seen seems to only model for 100k Gen 3 in 2016. Something seems very fishy about the "Expert" valuations. Any thoughts? If Demand is Europe is high enough, it might make sense for them to seek out another "Discounted Acquisition" which would allow to engage in further expansion. By that point they might be able to build their own from scratch with the money they'll be bringing in. 146,000 x 70,000 = 10,220,000,000 (400,000 x 40,000 or 16,000,000,000) = 26,220,000,000 x .25 = 6.5billion in profit - 1billion operating expenses = 5.5billion in earnings. 5.5billion x 20 = 110billion valuation.
The only hiccup I am able to spot is if the NADA is able to force Tesla to close all stores. I see this as very unlikely. I surely must be missing something, otherwise the media would be all over this. Am I?
Any thoughts?
Last edited:
I think your numbers might happen in 2020, if things go well. Gen3 will take a bit to ramp up... let's say we see first models (a few thousand) come out in 2015, and production ramps in 2016 with 100k cars produced. 2017 might see 125-150k gen3 cars, 2018 150-250k gen3 (inc. crossover), 2019 250-350k gen3 cars, 2010 350-450k gen3 cars (like your prediction).
Following your numbers of 6.5b gross revenue (inc model s/x, gen3), earnings will likely be 4b (or even less) x 10 would equal a 40b valuation (note: Ford and GM's market cap is about 40b currently). (I'm not sure where you're getting a 20x multiplier... 10x is closer to the auto industry, which isn't valued like the technology sector is.)
Again, this would be a very, very optimistic scenario.
A few other notes:
1. Entering the Asian markets might be difficult considering all the barriers to entry. I think Tesla can do it but it will take time, probably several years to get decent penetration. Ie., China, Korea, Japan markets are fairly protected IMO.
2. I don't think Tesla needs to be thinking of another factory for at least the next several years.
But overall, I'm very bullish on Tesla. I just think it'll take longer than you're expecting.
Following your numbers of 6.5b gross revenue (inc model s/x, gen3), earnings will likely be 4b (or even less) x 10 would equal a 40b valuation (note: Ford and GM's market cap is about 40b currently). (I'm not sure where you're getting a 20x multiplier... 10x is closer to the auto industry, which isn't valued like the technology sector is.)
Again, this would be a very, very optimistic scenario.
A few other notes:
1. Entering the Asian markets might be difficult considering all the barriers to entry. I think Tesla can do it but it will take time, probably several years to get decent penetration. Ie., China, Korea, Japan markets are fairly protected IMO.
2. I don't think Tesla needs to be thinking of another factory for at least the next several years.
But overall, I'm very bullish on Tesla. I just think it'll take longer than you're expecting.
I could be mistaken, but I think we're less then 2 quarters away from 50k per year 
According to the reservations page we are currently at 80 per day in USA, 8-10 per day in Europe, and 2-4 per day in Asia. 90 x 365 = 32850 +(.30 x 32850) = 42,705 + (.30 x 42,705) = 55,516
30 percent increase quarterly may be too low. Once the supercharge network is fully up and running, the rate could easily double (And fast). Someone surely must have spiked my Koolaid
- - - Updated - - -
I agree that it may take longer then I think for them to ramp up production. This could lead to them being very supply constrained, which may increase demand even further. What company with this type of growth rate only has a PE of 10? Elon mentioned Tesla would produce "At least 20k" in 2013. He also said Tesla will have gross margins of "At least 25%". He never said what demand would be. I suspect he is under-promising and planning on over-performing. Perhaps this is the tsunami of pain he was talking about?
What types of costs would be involved with building 150-200 cars per day? How many additional workers would be needed to make this happen? Is the current factory capable of achieving this scale?
I wonder what would happen if Elon were to announce that he is raising guidance to 40k cars in 2013. Perhaps this is the tsunami of pain he was talking about?
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bluestar beta by the beginning of 2014. I believe Elon said the secondary was to speed up production of the 3rd Gen. If this is right, the bluestar may be ready earlier then 2015.
According to the reservations page we are currently at 80 per day in USA, 8-10 per day in Europe, and 2-4 per day in Asia. 90 x 365 = 32850 +(.30 x 32850) = 42,705 + (.30 x 42,705) = 55,516
30 percent increase quarterly may be too low. Once the supercharge network is fully up and running, the rate could easily double (And fast). Someone surely must have spiked my Koolaid
- - - Updated - - -
I agree that it may take longer then I think for them to ramp up production. This could lead to them being very supply constrained, which may increase demand even further. What company with this type of growth rate only has a PE of 10? Elon mentioned Tesla would produce "At least 20k" in 2013. He also said Tesla will have gross margins of "At least 25%". He never said what demand would be. I suspect he is under-promising and planning on over-performing. Perhaps this is the tsunami of pain he was talking about?
What types of costs would be involved with building 150-200 cars per day? How many additional workers would be needed to make this happen? Is the current factory capable of achieving this scale?
I wonder what would happen if Elon were to announce that he is raising guidance to 40k cars in 2013. Perhaps this is the tsunami of pain he was talking about?
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bluestar beta by the beginning of 2014. I believe Elon said the secondary was to speed up production of the 3rd Gen. If this is right, the bluestar may be ready earlier then 2015.
Last edited:
blaz
Member
On the National Geographic documentary they said the factory could expand to 1M cars a year.
byt
Member
NuclearPowered
Member
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
That would be my guess too. Cranking up production = cranking up stock price.
No, I mean that Tesla has to have some big ones to raise the price of their only car. Confidence like that may be seen by investors that Tesla either knows something or is simply riding on the hubris of the action itself.
ETA:
related
What These Risky Bets Reveal About Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla Breaks Another Rule -- Will It Pay Off? (TSLA)
Last edited:
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
