JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yeah, I don't think coddling people is a good way to teach them anything. The constant complaints become annoying and pointless.
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TSLA Investor Discussions
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
The "Oh no. The stock is down!" doesn't bother me. I'm more the "Oh no. The stock is up, I can't afford it!" type. But no more. I'm hoping to go way up so I can sell a bunch (less than 1/4 my holdings) and then hope it falls so I can buy even more back. Some people (definitely not me) have made a great deal buying and selling the same stock over and over again.
I very seriously though about putting in a trailing stop at $37 back when TSLA almost touched $40, for about 1/4 of my holdings. But I was busy that day...ah well, still happy to have the stock.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Not the least bit concerned with Apple. If it gets any cheaper, its valuation won't make sense going forward. Believing it has peaked is just silly. Also, you are correct that I'm not going to talk about that here. I actually don't belong to any stock trading forums. I read all the comments on this forum to get a greater picture of how current reservation holders feel about things as well as to get an idea of what problems Tesla may encounter/ what are their biggest challenges going forward. My concerns are guided by a lack of information about Tesla as well as my stomach telling me that I am missing something. The phrase, "short sellers typically do more research then longs" comes to mind. In truth, it wouldn't surprise me if the market corrects tremendously in the coming months, leading to everything getting a 20-40% haircut based on some political/economic problem. I believe in Tesla, but I really wish I could find some answers to questions that leave me a bit worried. 1) What happens if Elon leaves the company/is forced to leave for reasons out of his control? 2) What happens if the Model S doesn't get a 5 Star Rating? 3) How do car companies convince people to adjust their garages to be able to accommodate plugging in their cars? 4) How do people that live in big cities that don't have access to private parking spaces/ garages purchase an EV? A friend of mine that recently spoke to better place mentioned currently their services are only being offered to people with private parking spaces. 5) Why can't Nissan/Mercedes /other car companies make Tesla obsolete? If Tesla beats them to the road with the Model S (Which is seeming very likely), will they be able to beat them with the Bluestar? If prices really do come down that much, won't any car manufacturer be able to produce a 20-30k EV? If Tesla has success, what's to stop GM/Ford, Mercedes/etc from devoting 3-4billion into development of more efficient systems? 6) Will Tesla be able to defend their patents? 7) How will trade ins work for EVs?
Many of those questions can't be answered until they happen. If you truly believe the stock market is headed for a 20-40% dip in the next few months and having Tesla stock go down 4% without any obvious explanation distresses you, I'd probably get out of stocks for the time being. Good post though as it addresses your concerns rather than just taking about the stock going down. Also, things are a little easier to read sometimes with some formatting. Good luck in your decision about the stocks.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What if a giant asteroid strikes the earth?
What happens when other vehicles don't get a 5 star rating?
Exactly as they have been, by showing the benefits over ICE vehicles and gas stations. It's an easy sell, made easier by high gas prices.
They probably don't. That still leaves a huge potential market that is no where near being served by OEM's.
How could that happen? ICE builders don't make other ICE builders obsolete.
Because the efficiencies are already high. A 90% efficient system will not be significantly worse than a 92% efficient system, and quite obviously efficiency is far from the only criteria in auto purchases. Plus Tesla has a large head start in the sector.
Who knows?
The same as they would for ICE's.
Regarding 1) Bad Analogy lol. Elon is the heart and soul of the company. If he leaves, Tesla is in big trouble.
Regarding 2) Tesla is being sold as a 5 Star car. Couldn't this void contracts? Could this hurt sales? Maybe we should make a topic : "Would you still buy a Model S if it doesn't get a 5 Star Rating?"
Regarding 3) My bigger concern is the high number of people I know with messy garages/ older wiring. Would the majority of people be responsive to plugging in their car over night? I realize this is a simple fix, and costs virtually nothing to do, but customer responsiveness to cleaning up their garages might not be simple. I have nothing to base this on lol.
Regarding 4) I wonder if inductive charging panels/options for cities would fix this. However, when I asked Tesla about this, they mentioned they have no plans for adopting this and cited the current efficiency problems of inductive charging. Companies like witricity and the Halo thing I have heard about look promising. I would love to see how this is implemented.
Regarding 5) You are correct.
Regarding 6) Tesla does have a large head start. I had an abstract conversation with someone from BMW about Tesla who mentioned something about them having a 1-2 year head start. I wonder how much this means for the future, if other companies desire to poor billions into R and D citing the success of Tesla. Tesla would basically have a functioning early Bluestar by mid to late 2014/2015 to stay ahead of the competition. Again, I am basing this on nothing, only my gut instinct.
Regarding 7) This is more of an abstract concern. I have no idea how lawsuits in the automotive industry work.
Regarding 8) I'm not so sure. Anyone buying the current Model S/ Model X may have trouble selling it in 3-5 years. I have no idea how the depreciation of EVs works, given the high cost of the battery. How much is the value of an EV hurt, when the range is reduced after X number of years or how this compares to depreciation of ICE cars. I know with laptops from 4-5 years ago, the computers are virtually worthless, because of the outdated parts/ the cost of upgrading them. I realize the saw is true about the majority of cars anyway, but I'm curious how improvements in range/ the cost of the battery would compromise the value of older cars. I know nothing about depreciation of cars. Also, I assume the warranty is transferable? Does the warranty cover reduced range from normal use?
Note : Poll made in Model S section.
Regarding 2) Tesla is being sold as a 5 Star car. Couldn't this void contracts? Could this hurt sales? Maybe we should make a topic : "Would you still buy a Model S if it doesn't get a 5 Star Rating?"
Regarding 3) My bigger concern is the high number of people I know with messy garages/ older wiring. Would the majority of people be responsive to plugging in their car over night? I realize this is a simple fix, and costs virtually nothing to do, but customer responsiveness to cleaning up their garages might not be simple. I have nothing to base this on lol.
Regarding 4) I wonder if inductive charging panels/options for cities would fix this. However, when I asked Tesla about this, they mentioned they have no plans for adopting this and cited the current efficiency problems of inductive charging. Companies like witricity and the Halo thing I have heard about look promising. I would love to see how this is implemented.
Regarding 5) You are correct.
Regarding 6) Tesla does have a large head start. I had an abstract conversation with someone from BMW about Tesla who mentioned something about them having a 1-2 year head start. I wonder how much this means for the future, if other companies desire to poor billions into R and D citing the success of Tesla. Tesla would basically have a functioning early Bluestar by mid to late 2014/2015 to stay ahead of the competition. Again, I am basing this on nothing, only my gut instinct.
Regarding 7) This is more of an abstract concern. I have no idea how lawsuits in the automotive industry work.
Regarding 8) I'm not so sure. Anyone buying the current Model S/ Model X may have trouble selling it in 3-5 years. I have no idea how the depreciation of EVs works, given the high cost of the battery. How much is the value of an EV hurt, when the range is reduced after X number of years or how this compares to depreciation of ICE cars. I know with laptops from 4-5 years ago, the computers are virtually worthless, because of the outdated parts/ the cost of upgrading them. I realize the saw is true about the majority of cars anyway, but I'm curious how improvements in range/ the cost of the battery would compromise the value of older cars. I know nothing about depreciation of cars. Also, I assume the warranty is transferable? Does the warranty cover reduced range from normal use?
Note : Poll made in Model S section.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
From current Roadster experience there seems to be little to no range reduction in a 3 year time frame, I'd expect at least the same or better from the Model S, and considering the high demand for the Model S I'd think used ones will sell quite well at reasonable prices. Initially the market may under value used EV's since there is an unknown quantity involved, but when people start to see how long the batteries actually last and how well the rest of the drive train holds up compared to an ICE, I'd expect values to hold up well. 10 year old RAV4EV's have held their value better than most ICE's. Getting a 10 year old ICE past a smog test can be a difficult and costly endeavor, something an EV will never have to deal with. Assuming constantly improving battery technology a used EV could get a new pack in 10 years or so and be better than original, ready for another 10+ years of service.
We're breaking up the "Are you also investing in Tesla?" topic, because it is getting unwieldy.
This is the place to post chat about investment strategies, short squeezes, options, "oh no the stock went up/down", etc.
TSLA Investor News is the place to post quarterly calls, 10-Ks, analyst reports, and other news related to TSLA stock.
Thanks!
This is the place to post chat about investment strategies, short squeezes, options, "oh no the stock went up/down", etc.
TSLA Investor News is the place to post quarterly calls, 10-Ks, analyst reports, and other news related to TSLA stock.
Thanks!
iamthecaliflower asked some good, provocative questions that I don't think should be lost as we shift threads:
My thoughts:
- Elon's departure would fall into the "very bad thing" category, which is why Daimler has conditioned its investment on his retention. I am not concerned, therefore, that this is a probable event unless we are already in a S-hits-the-fan state of the world.
- Little or nothing. If the Model S has one or two 4-star categories, and the rest are 5s, I doubt it will have a material effect on 99% of potential purchasers. After all, BMW, Daimler, Porsche, Audi, etc. seem to do just fine selling 4+-rated cars.
- Car companies convince people to wire their garages by pointing out how much cheaper and more convenient it is to plug an EV into the wall at night rather than to drive to a gas station on the way home.
- Urban charging is a problem. Where I live, ~80% of cars are street-parked, so clearly at-home charging is not a good option for them. Some urbanites may be able to use EVSE at work; my parking garage, e.g., has 10 J1772 30A chargers ($0 cost). Many businesses in Boston are adding chargers in their parking lots, so perhaps you recharge while at dinner. Still, work to be done here.
- "Why can't Nissan/Mercedes /other car companies make Tesla obsolete?" This is the core question, IMO. There is no doubt that these giants have the financial and technical resources to do just that. But
- ICE manufacturers will be reluctant to cannibalize their core product line with "too good" an EV. This is why I believe we haven't seen a >100-mile vehicle yet; this is the line of demarcation that traditional OEMs have set between their "around town" EVs and "real auto" ICEs.
- Tesla's patented IP provides it comparative advantage
- Tesla's brand name creates an "electric chic" halo
These are tenuous advantages, however, so unless Tesla stays at the top of its game, it could be over-run.
- Yes, though not without financial resources. Most likely, Tesla will follow the path of the chip-makers and aggressively cross-license tech.
- Same as any other car. The condition of the vehicle--including its battery--will figure into the resale value.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Regarding #5 above, I think any new player in the EV market, be it established car maker or new, is good for Tesla. What it will do is push the infrastructure development, push for new charging stations to augment/replace gas stations. The more charging spots around, the more viable EVs become, the more the EV market will grow.
Suppose the EV market today is 100 and Tesla is looking at a potential 40% market share. If major car makers enter the picture, push the infrastructure and the EV market becomes 1000, but Tesla's market share shrinks to 10%, Tesla is still better off.
New major players will not cannibalize each other at this stage, they will just grow the market... and that is a good thing. Ford, Nissan, Chevy... they are all your friends. I would see them as colleagues rather than competitors... at least for now.
Suppose the EV market today is 100 and Tesla is looking at a potential 40% market share. If major car makers enter the picture, push the infrastructure and the EV market becomes 1000, but Tesla's market share shrinks to 10%, Tesla is still better off.
New major players will not cannibalize each other at this stage, they will just grow the market... and that is a good thing. Ford, Nissan, Chevy... they are all your friends. I would see them as colleagues rather than competitors... at least for now.
Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
The issue of an established car maker entering the market is complicated. Car owners can be very loyal to their brand. I know people who love my Roadster but they love their BMW also and "wouldn't it be great if BMW made one."
This also reminds me of a similar thing which happened about 30 years ago... The IBM PC. The IBM PC "legitimized" the personal computer. Whether is was a good computer or not, it convinced the world that the personal computer didn't just have to be a toy. Getting a major car maker into the EV world would give EV's real traction and make the naysayers look more foolish to the world. When you think about it, Apple was there with the personal computer before IBM and it's still around and even bigger now. (Another comparison of Tesla with Apple I'm afraid.)
This also reminds me of a similar thing which happened about 30 years ago... The IBM PC. The IBM PC "legitimized" the personal computer. Whether is was a good computer or not, it convinced the world that the personal computer didn't just have to be a toy. Getting a major car maker into the EV world would give EV's real traction and make the naysayers look more foolish to the world. When you think about it, Apple was there with the personal computer before IBM and it's still around and even bigger now. (Another comparison of Tesla with Apple I'm afraid.)
BYT_P1837
Member
It's something all companies strive for. Xerox loves that people frequently call Copy Machines, Xerox Machines. Band-Aid for a bandage, Kleenex for a tissue. Google for a Search Engine, ect. My father-in-law used to tell everyone I worked for IBM because in his mind, anyone who worked on computers worked for Big Blue. iPad may become the generic name for a Tablet.
How awesome would it be is all electric cars were referred to as a Tesla? I have co-workers who have nicknamed me Tesla for fun (because I brag about the Model S and how badly I want one). As a shareholder as well, dude, I say bring it!
How awesome would it be is all electric cars were referred to as a Tesla? I have co-workers who have nicknamed me Tesla for fun (because I brag about the Model S and how badly I want one). As a shareholder as well, dude, I say bring it!
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