TSLA Investor Discussions

[NuclearPowered]

We will likely open tomorrow above the same point we did last Thursday.

If you can't handle the volatility, move to a weekly time frame. I traded options for a living in college. This volatility is nothing.

As long as you didnt buy last week, what is there to worry about?

 

[JRod0802]

Furthermore, you have not lost any money until you sell, and then you only lost money if you sell for less than you paid. Since buying at the bottom and selling at the top is a matter of luck, the only thing you can hope for is to sell for more than you paid. But again you have not lost any money until you sell your shares.

It's been a few months since Danial posted this, so I just thought I'd put it up as a reminder. It's a good point.

Personally I am bullish on TSLA, and I don't intend on selling until it hits at least $80.00. Whether or not it hits $80.00 is a matter of how well Tesla does as a company, not how well TSLA (the stock) does on a day-to-day basis. I wouldn't feel sick to my stomach at all if TSLA lost 20% tomorrow on no news. Losing 20% tomorrow wouldn't cost me any money, wouldn't affect the quality of Tesla's vehicles and wouldn't affect the price of the stock 4 years from now, which is around when I'll probably sell (to buy my Gen III vehicle).

Just thought I'd try to put this in perspective.


Edit: And by "this" I mean that fact that the stock dropped from 35.96 to 32.15 in the last two days. There, now my post can have historical context

 

[Iamthecaliflower]

@ Charged Up I expect it to either drop significantly, if it turns out Tesla cant be an OEM, or or to go to $300. My Sell order is at $300. I half expect $600 if they have no problems over the next 6 months. I will not sell, especially not after speaking so highly about Tesla to so many people.

 

[dsm363]

I watch it daily because I am bored at the moment. Simple. Also, because this is the most frightening time of Teslas existence. I would like to believe that Elon knows what he is doing, and that he is able to do something that no other company has done before. I want to take his words at face value. However, the short interest, combined with the medias perception of Tesla scares the hell out of me. Now is when they are supposed to be building their cars, however, some are still questioning if they can do it. I know nothing (Zero) about the automobile manufacturing process. Also, I still don't have an explanation about why only Elon can do what he is doing. My gut tells me they can get 40k reservations annually, with ease. My stomach is also telling me that I should be questioning his ability to ramp up production. I don't know what to think.

I would think the most frightening time in Tesla's existence would be the multiple times Elon used his own funds to keep Tesla alive during the early Roadster days. If this is a long term stock for you, these swings don't matter at all. Only what the stock is X years into the future when you decide to sell.

@ Charged Up I expect it to either drop significantly, if it turns out Tesla cant be an OEM, or or to go to $300. My Sell order is at $300. I half expect $600 if they have no problems over the next 6 months. I will not sell, especially not after speaking so highly about Tesla to so many people.

Wow. $600 by next year might be a little high. Again, if you're not going to sell not matter what, then sit back and enjoy the ride. If you're right, you'll have made a lot of money. No sense in stressing out about it if selling is not an option.

 

[Doug_G]

I'm going to go get the screen cleaner and see if I can wipe most of this mess off my screen. Anyone want to borrow it when I'm done?

Me. Thanks for wading in.

Chill everyone. I've had enough of the childish behavior on both sides. I will not tolerate any further personal attacks in this thread. You have been warned.

 

[Iamthecaliflower]

I don't expect $600 by next year, although I don't see how Tesla can be less then $100 ($150?) by December of 2013, By December 2014 $300, and by 2015 $600 if they succeed in all categories. The current price wont make sense.

In 2015 they expect to sell 100k of the gen 3. Assuming 35k Model S (65K?) and 35k Model X (65K?)
and 100k Gen 3 (35K?) we get revenue of 8,050,000,000. (.25 Margins) = 2,012,500,000 +(300mil?) from power trains +(300mil?) from the sale of EV Credits - OPEX of (400mil?) = 1 612 500 000 profit (20 "Half of the Current forward PE") = 32 250 000 000 (40 "Current Forward PE) = 64 500 000 000

By the end of 2015, Tesla should be worth between 32 250 000 000 (9.83231707 x the current price or $316.108994) and 64,500 000,000 (19.6646341 x the current price or $632.217986 ), assuming all goes as planned.

Anyone wish to comment on these figures?

 

[treehugger350]

Edit: And by "this" I mean that fact that the stock dropped from 35.96 to 32.15 in the last two days. There, now my post can have historical context

Hurray historical context! Seriously, thanks to all who have been posting. When I mentioned adding context to posts a week ago, I didn't expect a ton of people to notice my post, but everything has been much easier to follow since then. Please keep it up!

 

[Citizen-T]

Hurray historical context! Seriously, thanks to all who have been posting. When I mentioned adding context to posts a week ago, I didn't expect a ton of people to notice my post, but everything has been much easier to follow since then. Please keep it up!

It was a good point. I often think about it after posting and go back and edit to give more context.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

 

[mfarendt]

I don't expect $600 by next year, although I don't see how Tesla can be less then $100 ($150?) by December of 2013, By 2014 $300, and by 2015 $600 if they succeed in all categories. The current price wont make sense.

The operative statement is "if they succeed in all categories". Currently it is somewhat difficult to value a company when it has no earnings and there remains a large amount of uncertainty as to whether they will deliver upon their promises. In some cases, the folks at Tesla are not "masters of their own domain" and alot of their success or failure will depend upon the actions of others. Alot of companies that had great ideas and great people did not survive because the market, whether for logical reasons or not, chose to not support their business plans.

 

[Steph]

Hurray historical context! Seriously, thanks to all who have been posting. When I mentioned adding context to posts a week ago, I didn't expect a ton of people to notice my post, but everything has been much easier to follow since then. Please keep it up!

Yeah, we all changed our writing styles for you.

Happy now?

 

[ckessel]

At $300, TSLA would have a market cap the same as GM with just a tiny, tiny fraction of GM's sales.

So, no, that's not going to happen.

 

[Steph]

At $300, TSLA would have a market cap the same as GM with just a tiny, tiny fraction of GM's sales.

So, no, that's not going to happen.

Is Facebook having a larger cap then GM problematic?

 

[Citizen-T]

At $300, TSLA would have a market cap the same as GM with just a tiny, tiny fraction of GM's sales.

So, no, that's not going to happen.

Hmm... Got to keep that multiple in mind. Investors pay for growth, not sales. If Tesla is able to grow from selling 500 cars a year to selling 200,000 cars a year within 5 years, and I think you'll be surprised what investors will be willing to pay for that kind of growth.

Maybe not $300, but I wouldn't write it off completely.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

 

[dmckinstry]

Not that it will do any good, but lighten up, Cali.

Everyone here who holds TSLA lost some money today. And I guarantee that some of them also had a bad day and really didn't need the loss. You're not unique. And the drama is just too much.

How 'bout you just be part of the conversation? We'd all like that.

And of course, we haven't really lost (or made) anything until we actually sell. I've made over $9k this week and then lost close to $8k. Still up over my cost basis though. And I'll never sell even part of the stock at less then $10/share profit.

 

[Iamthecaliflower]

The only other factor that comes to mind is that the factory has maximum capacity of 500k cars. After 2015, with 70k Model S and X and 100k Gen 3, they can still grow for another 3 years at <30% YOY for the next 5-10 years, and not have to splurge for a new factory, keeping OPEX at similar levels. I'd guess OPEX would grow to the 600mil area by 2015. However, Elon has also stated that he wouldn't be surprised if they realize greater than 25% Margins. Given the dispersion of reservations, I would be very surprised if they peaked by 2015. Even if the "50% of new cars sold by 2020 will be electric" doesn't come true, it won't matter, since 200k cars will be no-where near 1% of total automotive sales.

Just for fun. This is Math that shows a real case for a 2016 stock price of $500-1000. : 70k (65K) +100k (35k) (.30) = 2415000000 + 300mil from EV Credits and 300mil from PowerTrains = 3015000000 - 500mil OPEX= 2,515,000,000 (PE20) = 50,300,000,000 , (PE40) = 100,600,000,000 = 15.3353659- 30.6707317x the current price or 493.032014 - 986.064024.

Regarding comparisons to GM. How many types of cars does GM make? What is the average price of their cars? How much do they make on their cars? What is their OPEX?

 

[joefee]

I am focusing on the 2012-13 time frame and can see the stock at $57 to $65 in that time period. The sell call today @ $28 is also very possible in the next 2 weeks (buying opportunity :crying

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[smorgasbord]

...in the worst case scenario Tesla will end Q2 with some $250-300m cash resources available.

In one of his latest SA comments, Petersen is still claiming a capital raise is absolutely necessary:

There is no arguing the reality that they're going to run out of working capital this quarter...I for one will be amazed if new money comes in at more than $25 a share. I've seen other companies settle for far bigger haircuts in circumstances that were far less desperate.

 

[NigelM]

In one of his latest SA comments, Petersen is still claiming a capital raise is absolutely necessary:

In order for him to be anywhere near correct, Tesla would have to be showing Q2 losses of >$150 million. Even with all the capital investments in Q1 the net loss was <$90m. The big capital investments were basically all done by Q1 and the big cost growth areas would be in wages etc.....unlikely to add up to $60m additional costs.

Note that converting cash into inventory (buying parts ahead of production) doesn't affect working capital calculations. Even if they were running short of working capital Tesla still had (as of March) $104m of the DOE loan available to draw down; they could call that in as cash and it would be added to long term debt outside of working capital calculations.

JP is wrong.

 

[dflye]

The only other factor that comes to mind is that the factory has maximum capacity of 500k cars.

Is that metric based upon the prior production rate before the facility was shut down and sold for pennies on the dollar?

Other than the square footage and basic infrastructure, I doubt the Tesla purchase included much of the expensive manufacturing equipment needed to produce automobiles, and even if it did, how much of it would be relevant for an EV vs ICE platform?

Some of the equipment that Tesla is using to produce the Model S was picked up at fire-sale discount prices in other regions of the US and shipped to the factory. Is such a discount likely to be available to acquire the additional manufacturing equipment needed to increase the production rate past a few hundred cars a day?

The expense that got Tesla to the current theoretical Model S max production rate is likely far cheaper than what it would cost to dramatically increase that capacity to the theoretical maximum of 500k cars annually at the old NUMMI facility.

So, don't expect to ramp up to that theoretical and magical max of 500k cars produced per year without a serious capital investment from Tesla; it certainly isn't a freebie to just throw into equations without consideration on how one goes from 20k per year to 500k per year.

I currently do not hold any position of TSLA, long or short, so I don't have a pony in this race per se. If I did, it would be a long-term position and I'd take off my reading glasses and ignore the minor fluctuations when reading the TSLA ticker. :tongue: