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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I enjoy reading the (sometimes heated) conversations and learning as much as I can.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Good, largely realistic, "Forbes" Article: tesla-motors-three-risks-that-could-affect-our-price-estimate/ gives a price estimate of $41.
In other news, Fisker reports ("Fisker On Death’s Door? Big Recall, Exec Shuffling, Money Woes For Electric Carmaker") seem to have stopped the TSLA surge today. The market needs to learn Fisker and Tesla are not the same.
To paraphrase George Orwell: Tesla good, Fisker bad. :wink:
In other news, Fisker reports ("Fisker On Death’s Door? Big Recall, Exec Shuffling, Money Woes For Electric Carmaker") seem to have stopped the TSLA surge today. The market needs to learn Fisker and Tesla are not the same.
To paraphrase George Orwell: Tesla good, Fisker bad. :wink:
smorgasbord
Active Member
OK, I'll bite. Here's an idea: Jan $27 Puts are bringing in a lot of money: over $4.
Earlier today people would have paid you $4.20 for the right to make you buy TSLA between now and Jan 19, 2013 from them at the price of $27. That's an effective buy price of under $23.
Clearly some people are thinking Tesla won't make enough deliveries in 2012. If you think they will, this is a good way to put your money where your mouth is.
I don't trade in options but as far as I know, a put is an option to sell, not buy. The contract you mention would bring in $400 but you're betting that at no time between now and Jan will the stock price drop below $23.
Krugerrand
Meow
Daily volume has been quite low for the past several days...therefore, not much is happening. :shrug:
I decided to move the Off-Topic posts about Bonnie's avatar to random chitchat - Page 22 because, well, it's off topic but might be fun to discuss...
NuclearPowered
Member
He is referring to selling the put and collecting the option premium. By chance if the option comes into the money, then he would be able to buy at the effective price stated, (strike - premium). You would be correct if he was to purchase the puts.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Right, the person buying the PUT option from you is buying the right to sell you shares, which is the same as making you buy the shares.
It's not solid that "at no time" can the stock to drop below $23. There's the remaining time value, there's that you didn't sell the PUT to a specific investor so some people paid more and some paid less for the option which affects the breakeven for them, and there's also that you end up in a pool from which assignments are given. Finally, if your approach is that you want to buy more TSLA then this is a way to either make some money or buy at more attractive price.
What do you think of the new GeorgeB blog post that only 74 cars have been built for reservation holders … Sept is only days away … seems we should be much further along. We see what happens tomorrow.
Inside Tesla - 08.21.12 | Blog | Tesla Motors
Inside Tesla - 08.21.12 | Blog | Tesla Motors
Krugerrand
Meow
That seems about right given the numbers. It was something like 1 car/day to start. Then a few weeks later they went to 2 cars/day. It's been, what?, 8 weeks since the release...9 maybe? Not sure how many it is per day now, but I'd say the 100 less the 26 for other purposes sounds about right to this point.
mitch672
Active Member
It made news that wall street investors will see:
StreetInsider.com - Tesla Motors (TSLA) Manufactures 100th Model S
Norbert
TSLA will win
The question isn't so much how many cars they have built until now, but more how much work they have left to do before they can ramp up on a larger scale.
I suppose production rate depends on the slowest component, perhaps on one minor small thing. So we can't tell from the outside how much it will take, and very likely they can't exactly tell in advance, until all individual components are ready for higher rates. Plus they may still have to do lots of additional manual testing, to avoid missing any problems at each increase of rate for each component, until they can rely on each step to work well automatically, before they can reduce testing to a normal level.
I suppose production rate depends on the slowest component, perhaps on one minor small thing. So we can't tell from the outside how much it will take, and very likely they can't exactly tell in advance, until all individual components are ready for higher rates. Plus they may still have to do lots of additional manual testing, to avoid missing any problems at each increase of rate for each component, until they can rely on each step to work well automatically, before they can reduce testing to a normal level.
Citizen-T
Active Member
So they doubled the total number of cars in 3 weeks? That sounds right on par with what Elon said would happen. Remember, this is an exponential ramp!
100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400
So they need 6.5ish sets of 3 weeks to make the 5000 unit goal. There are about 20 weeks left on the the year. Let's see...20 divided by 3 is... Oh my gosh, 6.7.
They're fine as long as they stay on the exponential curve, which they keep saying time and time again is the plan. The problem is humans are really bad at imagining the exponential. So, before fretting, write it down.
EDIT:
Actually, I counted wrong. They only need 5.5. So they actually have a nice buffer to boot.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
However if there are delay issues there is no reason to think they can still hit the exponential curve, so it's probably going to be tight.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Just responding to "seems like we should be much further along". No, I don't think we should be further along, I think we are right on target, if not ahead of schedule.
Edit: where did you see they doubled the total cars in 3 weeks? I just see that they build the 100th car, but they'd had 10 Founders + ~10(?) test drive cars back on ~6/22. That leaves 80 cars build in the last 8 weeks. Did I miss something?
Anyway, 20k/year run rate is about ~1150 in 3 weeks. Even at 30k/year that's ~1725 in 3 weeks. They'll never hit a production rate of 3200 or 6400 cars per 3 weeks. They could make it though even at the 20k/year rate if they don't miss a step:
8/20-9/10 = 200 cars
9/10-10/1 = 400 cars
10/1-10/22= 800 cars
10/22-11/12 = 1150 cars <-- 20k/year run rate
11/12-12/3 = 1150 cars
12/3-12/24 = 1150 cars
total = 4850 cars
So, it's certainly possible, though it's a high volatility target since missing a step somewhere along the line cuts off a lot of end year production.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Agree on this, remember Elon tried to down-play 5000 ("soft target") but it has become important for them to hit it. At least for the short term stock price. In the longer run though it will mean nothing if it's 4000 cars in 2012 (and the 5000th comes in say week 3 of January).
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