TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lklundin]

Here is a very informative and fact based post that outlines why it is a bad idea to go short on Tesla:
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Short Tesla (TSLA) Stock

The above article asserts:

"Pro tip: share prices around $300 are not indicative of companies with problems raising capital."

Does that actually make sense, without implicitly assuming something about the number of shares issued?

For Tesla there is f.ex. about 170 million shares outstanding, for a market cap of 51 billion dollar at 300 dollars per share. I find it hard to believe that the above would hold equally well for a company with 170 thousand shares outstanding (i.e. a market cap 1000 times smaller than Tesla's) - and even more so for a (hypothetical) company with just 170 shares outstanding (i.e. a market cap of 51 thousand dollars, at 300 dollars per share).

PS. I am again far behind on this thread, so apologies if I have missed a discussion of this.

 

[gavine]

Camry sales plunged more than 22 percent in July.

Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. Sales for July 2018 | Corporate

And it's a new design that is MUCH nicer than the previous design that it replaces. This is very surprising. Could the Model 3 be having an impact on standard sedans too (Camry, Accord, Altima), and not just premiums (BMW, Mercedes, Audi)?

 

[Cosmacelf]

The above article asserts:

"Pro tip: share prices around $300 are not indicative of companies with problems raising capital."

Does that actually make sense, without implicitly assuming something about the number of shares issued?

For Tesla there is f.ex. about 170 million shares outstanding, for a market cap of 51 billion dollar at 300 dollars per share. I find it hard to believe that the above would hold equally well for a company with 170 thousand shares outstanding (i.e. a market cap 1000 times smaller than Tesla's) - and even more so for a (hypothetical) company with just 170 shares outstanding (i.e. a market cap of 51 thousand dollars, at 300 dollars per share).

PS. I am again far behind on this thread, so apologies if I have missed a discussion of this.

You’re overthinking it. The writer was using shorthand, colloquial language to say that Tesla could raise money today if it wanted to.

Which begs the question, why isn’t it? A bunch of possible reasons, like they haven’t finished site selection on the next factory, so they don’t need the money today. Or they think the stock price will soar in 6 months, so do it then.

 

[shlokavica22]

And it's a new design that is MUCH nicer than the previous design that it replaces. This is very surprising. Could the Model 3 be having an impact on standard sedans too (Camry, Accord, Altima), and not just premiums (BMW, Mercedes, Audi)?

That's the beauty of Tesla- it draws customers from so many different groups, including Toyota drivers that were never inspired by status symbols cars, even though they could afford them.

 

[dmital]

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[Boomer19]

Nope, it's not worthless, I just don't think it has as much value as you attribute it too.
They were leaders, but since divorcing from MobilEye, Tesla needed to redevelop lots of the same technology, and it has been slow and excruciating progress.

I'm not convinced that they have anything more than usual suspect Mobileye etc, yet, value of that tech is rapidly dropping and I think they're quite a bit behind Google. Now, I think they're still well positioned to succeed and be on the forefront, but that whole effort has turned out much messier than I expected.

I feel jury would be out on how much value there was, should they spin it out. Few $B sure, but $14B? I highly doubt it... But then, Tesla is worth more than the sum of its parts, so this is not how I would prefer to evaluate it.
I hope this makes sense. I just felt you're taking for granted something (AP value) that's arguable, hope that's helpful...

i think starting from scratch on this is going to end up being the best thing that could’ve happened to them, from a long view

 

[TintDepot.com]

Production is up at Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

That's the beauty of Tesla- it draws customers from so many different groups, including Toyota drivers that were never inspired by status symbols cars, even though they could afford them.

I'm going to a Model 3 LR AWD PUP + Air suspension & tow package (if available), from a 2000 Honda Insight with 742k kilometers on it and a broken HV battery, which does 0-100 kph in over 21 seconds if I redline the engine.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Very odd...

• Q2 Model 3s in transit: 11,166
• Estimated July Deliveries: 14,250
• Estimated July Production: 16,000 (Skabooshka's estimates, 4k/week)

11.2k + 16k - 14.25k = 12,916 Model 3s not yet delivered

If Tesla was hoarding inventory at the end of Q2 for the tax benefit, shouldn't inventory/in-transit be going DOWN, not up?

Edit: Also, concerning to see S/X deliveries down 21% compared to July 2017.

 

[theschnell]

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

The primary bottleneck now is deliveries....

 

[gringotuanis]

Really? Huh, didn't realize I was the only one who had comments blocked on SA when posting (politely written) comments critical of Fossi's story (specifically, I was merely asking why it had changed twice, from "Just leaving to focus more on my investments" to "Elon called my boss" to "Elon sent an email to my boss and a coworker called him". Also, whether he actually had any evidence of "threats" to his boss). I found it rather ironic, in an article focusing on "censorship of criticism", that my questions (which weren't even criticism) were censored.

BTW, at what time are the Q2 update letter / investor call? I assume 2:30 PM PDT for the call? So... 2:00 for the update letter?

230 pm pacific...430pm central for the call yes. Not sure on the letter. Probably 45 or 30 minutes before.

 

[dmunjal]

For sure, about the only thing dumber and more crooked than a Tesla troll is an Apple troll. I've been laughing at them for over 20 years. Especially at this point, it is just lunacy to attack Apple. 20-25 years ago they had a chance to actually kill Apple, but couldn't because Apple's products were just too good and their user base too obsessed. In both cases they lie and misinform for an agenda to destroy a company to benefit some truly sugarhole competitor(s) that don't deserve to even be in the same realm. With the Model 3 Tesla is now relatively safe and they will sell every one they can make. But the lying trolls will keep on making up insane conspiracies to explain why reality isn't real. Next up they will start claiming EM is dying.

Speaking of Apple and Tesla.

 

[theschnell]

Very odd...

• Q2 Model 3s in transit: 11,166
• Estimated July Deliveries: 14,250
• Estimated July Production: 16,000 (Skabooshka's estimates, 4k/week)

11.2k + 16k - 14.25k = 12,916 Model 3s not yet delivered

If Tesla was hoarding inventory at the end of Q2 for the tax benefit, shouldn't inventory/in-transit be going DOWN, not up?

Does seem odd, but perhaps a few still delivered in Canada in July as well? They also have a delivery bottleneck. That is clear from the Model 3 forum

 

[theschnell]

I'm going to a Model 3 LR AWD PUP + Air suspension & tow package (if available), from a 2000 Honda Insight with 742k kilometers on it and a broken HV battery, which does 0-100 kph in over 21 seconds if I redline the engine.

A model 3 with air suspension and tow package? When are you going to take delivery on that? July 2019?

 

[ZachShahan]

When Elon said there was a short burn coming, I looked back at his "Tsunami of Hurt" comment. That "tsunami of hurt" happened eventually, but it didn't happen for *six months*. Six months after Elon's "short burn" comment would be sometime in *December*. No more need be said.

i didn't look at the specific timeframe, but this is what i remembered and had been expecting.

the thing that shocked me back then was the amount of good news, the opportunity shorts had to get out, and that they didn't till they got burnt at the last second (or didn't at all). it seems like an extremely similar pattern this time around.

hold strong.

 

[Neweyes]

The big day is here! How are we all? Excited? Nervous? Drunk?

 

[ZachShahan]

OK, so you agree with us. The really problematic part is how those dishonest liars spreading disinformation about Tesla manage to *push their disinformation to the top of Google search results and Yahoo news feeds* and the like.

This has led to more reasonable people, bears and even bulls, believing some of the outright lies that they've been peddling -- the fire nonsense, the paint shop limits nonsense, and false claims about debt maturing in the near term are three lies I've heard repeated by *otherwise reasonable people*, some of whom were *bullish*. The disinformation campaign is quite effectively planting false ideas in people's heads. I think this is affecting both "sane" bears and bulls who don't do their research.

i try to get to the bottom of any claims sent my way. i've received the ones regarding paint shop limits a number of times, but haven't seen a solid response. can you provide any more info on this?

 

[ZachShahan]

I'll take it. I initially agreed that TSLA would drop after the ER and I still think that's got 50% likelihood. But here's the other possibility.

Suppose that nearly all the TSLA bulls are wise analysts like us and expect the Q2 ER to look awful, so we *expect* the stock to drop after it. We're just waiting until right after the ER to start buying stock. Lots and lots of stock. Huge purchases. What does that cause the stock to do after ER?

Which scenario happens is dependent basically on what percentage of bulls are expecting a drop after ER. If it's a small percentage of bulls, then it makes no difference, and we still see a drop after ER. If it's nearly all bulls, then we probably will see a *rise* after ER -- it'll be a self-defeating prophecy.

50% likelihood — you're not giving us much to work on here.

 

[mongo]

Very odd...

• Q2 Model 3s in transit: 11,166
• Estimated July Deliveries: 14,250
• Estimated July Production: 16,000 (Skabooshka's estimates, 4k/week)

11.2k + 16k - 14.25k = 12,916 Model 3s not yet delivered

If Tesla was hoarding inventory at the end of Q2 for the tax benefit, shouldn't inventory/in-transit be going DOWN, not up?

Edit: Also, concerning to see S/X deliveries down 21% compared to July 2017.

InsideEVs can only estimate Tesla's numbers since they are not reported. They adjust the third month of the quarter to match the officially released totals.
GIGO...

 

[Hogfighter]

The big day is here! How are we all? Excited? Nervous? Drunk?

Yes