TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

How are you voting?

I'm all for it.
It's insane reward, yes, but for superhuman type of goal.
If any other CEO was offered comp plan to increase market cap 10x (for a large cap company), there would be calls to replace board on the grounds of insanity...

 

[DragonWatch]

Interesting after hours major spikes down and then back up to almost equal days trading compared other stocks. I was looking at TSLA, GOOGL, AMZN, and NVDA. Just kinda wacky since typically each stock does its own thing. Spikes are normal with TSLA, but for all of them to experience the same kind of negative spike(s). Probably just the volatile market playing with my glass of water.

Yep, i’ll vote yes or for. Not that anyone cares; oh well, back to another glass of water and put the dishes away. God, life is so rough

 

[madodel]

On every proxy vote I always vote no to compensation packages because the package usually rewards management handsomely for just showing up. I voted my shares yes in favor for Tesla's package.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Elon's saving the planet, saving US tax payers billions of $ with cheaper rocket launches, going after BigAuto+dealerships, utility companies, dirty power plants, established NASA handout hogs, and maybe even TelCos, not to mention making Twitter actually bearable. If he was born a US citizen, and if I had the money, I'd throw in billions just to give him a chance at POTUS.

So I voted yes.

 

[bdy0627]

Your Model 3 ASP assumption is about $10k too low, considering the fact that SR is now in 4Q18 at the earliest, and EAP take-rate is high (i.e. 80% and will only go higher), even if we assume FSD take-rate remains at current 20% through year-end. Also consider that AWD will cost $4k to $5k, and it's now pulled forward. P will cost an arm and a leg. I would estimate Model 3 ASP at $55k through 2018, and I think that's low for 1H18. On the other hand, I don't see Tesla producing 200k+ units of Model 3 in 2018, so maybe that's an offset idk.

I have Tesla 2018 Rev at $23.3B, but it's really what's coming in 2019 (i.e. "sustainable" operating profitability and 10k/w Model 3 along with S/X refresh as well as further progress and higher take-rate of FSD) that will lead to multiple expansion later this year imho.

I agree with the lower number of M3 produced for 2018. 200,000+ is pretty optimistic at this point, in my opinion. To be conservative, I would assume something more along the lines of 160,000 - 180,000. With the higher ASP, it still doesn't make a huge difference to the revenue numbers. At an ASP of $55,000, M3 2018 revenue should be $9 - $10B. With an ASP of $50,000, it's $8 - $9B.

 

[ZsoZso]

When I got my Model S in 2014, Teslas were rare around here, got lots of stares. Today I just drove a couple of blocks to a grocery store and met 2 other Teslas on the way, so they are no longer rare. And yet, when I stop at a red light and some kids (12-14 year olds) cross in front of me, they take a good long look at my car and then give me big thumbs up with smiles.

This never happened driving a BMW.
So I do not care how many dinosaur juice burning ICE-age machines they sold last year.
The future has already been won by Tesla, BMW does not have a future, they live in the past, end of story!
The Model 3 production will ramp up within a year or so, exact date does not matter as the other companies dont even have working prototypes that would be capable of competing with it let alone battery production capability for hundreds of thousands of cars per year. That means, once Model 3 ships in volume, it is game over for BMW, its life expectancy is shorter than my cat's. Their market cap is a joke, who wants to hold shares of a dying company ? Those people should buy steam machine shares instead.

 

[bdy0627]

Turns out it was a false alarm, but make no mistake: 2018 will be volatile. Position accordingly (i.e. limit margin)

Since when was TSLA not volatile? The market is starting to act more like TSLA in that fashion. We are pretty used to it here, but the rest of the market will need to adjust.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I agree with the lower number of M3 produced for 2018. 200,000+ is pretty optimistic at this point, in my opinion. To be conservative, I would assume something more along the lines of 160,000 - 180,000. With the higher ASP, it still doesn't make a huge difference to the revenue numbers. At an ASP of $55,000, M3 2018 revenue should be $9 - $10B. With an ASP of $50,000, it's $8 - $9B.

ASP has been $55k+ and they’re about to add AWD and roll out FSD-exclusive feature later this year. Don’t think ASP will decline below $55k in 2018. Maybe in early 2019 when SR is prevalent. It any even get closer to $60k until SR comes out at the end of this year. With that, I think Model 3 revenue at $10.5B in 2018.

 

[Tslynk67]

Unfortunately I don't get the option to participate in share-holder votes, I'm not sure if this is a general constraint for shares held outside the USA, or just with my broker. If I could vote then it would be "Yes" - if we go 12x the current capitalisation then I'll have a very wealthy retirement AND the world will be a better place, I don't care how much they give Elon to achieve that.

 

[Mike Smith]

3 pieces of news came after hours that could propel tsla higher tomorrow:

1) Nasdaq futures up another 45 points
2) New batch of model 3 configuration invites
3) CFRA analyst Efraim Levy raised his price target from $275 to $300 and says he thinks Tesla will make 5k/wk target by end Q2.

 

[Lessmog]

Unfortunately I don't get the option to participate in share-holder votes, I'm not sure if this is a general constraint for shares held outside the USA, or just with my broker. If I could vote then it would be "Yes" - if we go 12x the current capitalisation then I'll have a very wealthy retirement AND the world will be a better place, I don't care how much they give Elon to achieve that.

Could be your broker. I had to go through some hoops to vote my shares held in a bank before the SolarCity merger, phone calls to London and NY and several emails. The other shares, held with a different broker, could not vote at all. Like you, I am in EU.
If you really really want to vote, buttonhole your brokerage.

 

[Lessmog]

Elon's saving the planet, saving US tax payers billions of $ with cheaper rocket launches, going after BigAuto+dealerships, utility companies, dirty power plants, established NASA handout hogs, and maybe even TelCos, not to mention making Twitter actually bearable. If he was born a US citizen, and if I had the money, I'd throw in billions just to give him a chance at POTUS.

So I voted yes.

If and if ... If the Koch Group succeeds in convening a constitutional convention, the natural-born criterion might also be dropped, along with whatever other pesky rights they may like to abolish. Many people already view the U S Constitution as just another piece of pergament, ready to be scrapped.

Perhaps we will live to see.

 

[Tslynk67]

Could be your broker. I had to go through some hoops to vote my shares held in a bank before the SolarCity merger, phone calls to London and NY and several emails. The other shares, held with a different broker, could not vote at all. Like you, I am in EU.
If you really really want to vote, buttonhole your brokerage.

Well, I asked, again...

"Dear Sir, Unfortunately, it's not possible to participate at US shareholder voting through Keytrade."

Not that my vote would make that much difference...

 

[aubreymcfato]

When I got my Model S in 2014, Teslas were rare around here, got lots of stares. Today I just drove a couple of blocks to a grocery store and met 2 other Teslas on the way, so they are no longer rare. And yet, when I stop at a red light and some kids (12-14 year olds) cross in front of me, they take a good long look at my car and then give me big thumbs up with smiles.

This never happened driving a BMW.
So I do not care how many dinosaur juice burning ICE-age machines they sold last year.
The future has already been won by Tesla, BMW does not have a future, they live in the past, end of story!
The Model 3 production will ramp up within a year or so, exact date does not matter as the other companies dont even have working prototypes that would be capable of competing with it let alone battery production capability for hundreds of thousands of cars per year. That means, once Model 3 ships in volume, it is game over for BMW, its life expectancy is shorter than my cat's. Their market cap is a joke, who wants to hold shares of a dying company ? Those people should buy steam machine shares instead.

This.
I've tried to write a quick post just after the Falcon Heavy launch:
How to grow a generation of space explorers — Steemit

I think that Elon has an uncanny instinct in appealing to young people.
He thinks from first principles, so he always thinks about the next generation of customers, engineers, computer scientists, space explorers. His gimmicks (sendind a f***ng car through space, with Spaceman listening to Space Oddity, and all the other nerdy things) are understandable/wowable from 6 year-olds to millenials. He'll be probably responsible for a lot of guys and girls choosing scientific faculties in college. And, of course, he's cultivating a lot of customers of the next 5-10 years.
This is why I'm constantly hoping he'll really make a 35k car, or even less: young people have more time but less money. Tesla Network will help, of course.

 

[Lessmog]

Well, I asked, again...

"Dear Sir, Unfortunately, it's not possible to participate at US shareholder voting through Keytrade."

Not that my vote would make that much difference...

Same sort of non-response I got from Nordnet. But Handelsbanken undertook to vote my shares held there.
Not sure I'll bother trying to register this time though, as the outcome is almost certain and anyway less mission critical now.

 

[Tslynk67]

This.
I've tried to write a quick post just after the Falcon Heavy launch:
How to grow a generation of space explorers — Steemit

I think that Elon has an uncanny instinct in appealing to young people.
He thinks from first principles, so he always thinks about the next generation of customers, engineers, computer scientists, space explorers. His gimmicks (sendind a f***ng car through space, with Spaceman listening to Space Oddity, and all the other nerdy things) are understandable/wowable from 6 year-olds to millenials. He'll be probably responsible for a lot of guys and girls choosing scientific faculties in college. And, of course, he's cultivating a lot of customers of the next 5-10 years.
This is why I'm constantly hoping he'll really make a 35k car, or even less: young people have more time but less money. Tesla Network will help, of course.

Not just the kids, the way he thinks, the fiction he reads and references all the time, his whacky sense of humour, it could be me, and I'm 51. (note that I didn't mention the intelligence part though... )

 

[Ulmo]

this is discussion for another day.

Good morning! Today is a new day.

if EM doesn't get it and decides to leave Tesla, who takes over? Or should we start buying "PUTS"

If you like. Who’s taking over? Are they remaining public, or going private?

 

[bdy0627]

Market futures are quite positive, which means we are probably likely to see an early short attack on TSLA. I'm expecting a MMD to get traders to look elsewhere in this new market uptrend that is gaining speed.

 

[Ulmo]

Well, I asked, again...

"Dear Sir, Unfortunately, it's not possible to participate at US shareholder voting through Keytrade."

Not that my vote would make that much difference...

Sounds like “Since we can, we’re taking away your voting so we can cast your votes our way instead, to better our concerns, not yours.” Who controls their decisions?

 

[Ulmo]

When I got my Model S in 2014, Teslas were rare around here, got lots of stares. Today I just drove a couple of blocks to a grocery store and met 2 other Teslas on the way, so they are no longer rare. And yet, when I stop at a red light and some kids (12-14 year olds) cross in front of me, they take a good long look at my car and then give me big thumbs up with smiles.

This never happened driving a BMW.
So I do not care how many dinosaur juice burning ICE-age machines they sold last year.
The future has already been won by Tesla, BMW does not have a future, they live in the past, end of story!
The Model 3 production will ramp up within a year or so, exact date does not matter as the other companies dont even have working prototypes that would be capable of competing with it let alone battery production capability for hundreds of thousands of cars per year. That means, once Model 3 ships in volume, it is game over for BMW, its life expectancy is shorter than my cat's. Their market cap is a joke, who wants to hold shares of a dying company ? Those people should buy steam machine shares instead.

It’s easy to pick just one loser to fit your narrative. You’re ignoring the many companies that will come out with competent electric cars in the next half decade or so. Tesla is among the winners. Arguing about a loser is like arguing about how many bread crumbs each winner will make, longer term. Which is the purpose of this forum. Good job!