TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

MOD:
Keep musings that are not rigorously market-oriented to the General thread, please. Relying on Mods to back up the moving van umpteen times a day is not the way to have them behave generously to you when you step out of line.
And "But Johnny posted something that I've just gottagottagotta respond to!" don't work no how no way.

Sorry, my fault. I think I actually wanted to post in the General thread, but the 2 tabs are always open in my browser, and got confused.

 

[Tenable]

Purchased 335 weekly calls as lottos. We've been holding above 329.99, if it maintains itself as support we could shoot up to 337. Not an advice, purely a gambool.

Edit: I paid 1.08

 

[Menifeer]

I'm currently short the 340, 342.50, 345 and 360. Let's shoot for 339 so we can both be happy...

 

[Lessmog]

Oh BTW wth is this? Do others see this too? Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

TSLA's Nasdaq Last Sale has not been updated
*

*Real-Time - data as of 2/15/2018 9:11:06 AM -

Replying to myself:
It took over two hours but it seems it's all up again, even the graph which took longer. So All Clear.

 

[NicoV]

Unfortunately I don't get the option to participate in share-holder votes, I'm not sure if this is a general constraint for shares held outside the USA, or just with my broker. If I could vote then it would be "Yes" - if we go 12x the current capitalisation then I'll have a very wealthy retirement AND the world will be a better place, I don't care how much they give Elon to achieve that.

It’s typical for Belgium, maybe even Europe. I asked my bank (Keytradebank, maybe the same as yours) last year how I could vote for the SolarCity merger, and the answer was that I couldn’t. They could provide me with a certificate of how much stock I own for 10 euro, I would have to contact Tesla and hope that they let me vote based on that certificate. That was too much for me to even try.

Edit: I now read that you use keytrade, apparently they didn’t tell you the whole story.

 

[bdy0627]

There should be some substantial resistance in these low to mid $330s. Let's see if we have enough volume to shoot through. I doubt it.

 

[kbM3]

I think I've made my position crystal clear; don't you think?

He’ll take it.

Voting no means being prepared for Elon to walk away. It is no 100% sure thing he would stay if the comp package is voted down.

Taking any chance of Elon walking, to try and leverage some kind of better deal is irresponsible IMO.

 

[avoigt]

It’s typical for Belgium, maybe even Europe. I asked my bank (Keytradebank, maybe the same as yours) last year how I could vote for the SolarCity merger, and the answer was that I couldn’t. They could provide me with a certificate of how much stock I own for 10 euro, I would have to contact Tesla and hope that they let me vote based on that certificate. That was too much for me to even try.

Edit: I now read that you use keytrade, apparently they didn’t tell you the whole story.

I could not find a way to vote as well. It looks like all international stock owner are excluded from it. Although I hope that the vast majority is voting yes anyway its not a good feeling that owners are treated in different ways just because they live in different parts of the world.

Has anybody insight about the voting process and rules?

How much % means victory (more than 50%)? Is 100% all Stocks in the market , all weighted stock that could vote in the US or ... whatever?

 

[Iceman]

Same sort of non-response I got from Nordnet. But Handelsbanken undertook to vote my shares held there.
Not sure I'll bother trying to register this time though, as the outcome is almost certain and anyway less mission critical now.

I have 800 TSLA shares with Avanza here in Sweden. Do you swedes know if there is any way I can vote??

Jag skal självklart rösta ja om jag får chansen!

 

[jhm]

After many disappointments i am more conservative
though still bullish.
If and When the facts change, them My views will change

Guess estimates
1 qtr 1000/ week = 12,000 total
2 qtr 2000/ week = 24,000 total
3 qtr 3000/ week = 36,000 total
4 qtr 4000/ week = 48,000 total

Total model 3 2018 production 120,000 units

At $55,000 per car = $6.6 bln in revenues

Nothing wrong with being a conservative bull. I like the ramp. It seems plenty doable and adds 55% growth to revenue. So that is enough to keep me believing and well invested in Tesla. Anything beyond this is pure gravy.

They say the secret to happiness is low expectations. I think it is healthy for all of us to have a sense of what minimal performance is sufficient to keep us invested in the stock. There's really no need to expect much more than that. We can have hopes, wishes and fantasies for higher performance, but no need to set expectations that high.

So If Tesla sells 120k Model 3 and 100k Model S/X in 2018 I'd be quite satisfied. Of course, my wish is that they would sell 240k or more Model 3 plus 120 Model S/X.

 

[Curt Renz]

Unfortunately I don't get the option to participate in share-holder votes, I'm not sure if this is a general constraint for shares held outside the USA, or just with my broker. If I could vote then it would be "Yes" - if we go 12x the current capitalisation then I'll have a very wealthy retirement AND the world will be a better place, I don't care how much they give Elon to achieve that.

It’s typical for Belgium, maybe even Europe. I asked my bank (Keytradebank, maybe the same as yours) last year how I could vote for the SolarCity merger, and the answer was that I couldn’t. They could provide me with a certificate of how much stock I own for 10 euro, I would have to contact Tesla and hope that they let me vote based on that certificate. That was too much for me to even try.

Edit: I now read that you use keytrade, apparently they didn’t tell you the whole story.

I could not find a way to vote as well. It looks like all international stock owner are excluded from it. Although I hope that the vast majority is voting yes anyway its not a good feeling that owners are treated in different ways just because they live in different parts of the world.

Has anybody insight about the voting process and rules?

How much % means victory (more than 50%)? Is 100% all Stocks in the market , all weighted stock that could vote in the US or ... whatever?

I have 800 TSLA shares with Avanza here in Sweden. Do you swedes know if there is any way I can vote??

Jag skal självklart rösta ja om jag får chansen!

All shareholders should be able to vote regardless of nationality. Perhaps your brokerage has lent your shares to a short seller. In that case, the party that bought the shares from the short seller is the one who would vote what you thought were your shares. Check with your brokerage regarding that possibility. Also check with Tesla Investor Relations: Contact Investor Relations | Tesla, Inc.

 

[Tenable]

I have exited my 335 weeklies, I debated closing around 332 but hoping for further continuation I held. I've closed them about even. Still hopeful we continue up, just not trading that hope short term.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Voting no means being prepared for Elon to walk away. It is no 100% sure thing he would stay if the comp package is voted down. Taking any chance of Elon walking, to try and leverage some kind of better deal is irresponsible IMO.

I don't think he's motivated by money, I don't think what I'm proposing is a major change, and I think he'd understand it's a fair suggestion.

 

[elasalle]

I don't think he's motivated by money, I don't think what I'm proposing is a major change, and I think he'd understand it's a fair suggestion.

So you with Chanos or EM choose and let us know.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Voting no means being prepared for Elon to walk away. It is no 100% sure thing he would stay if the comp package is voted down.
Taking any chance of Elon walking, to try and leverage some kind of better deal is irresponsible IMO.

Apologies if others have already pointed out similar opinions. I think Elon is confident Tesla over the coming 10 years will grow to a 600+ billion valuations. His existing shares should that occur would make him hugely wealthy, enough to finance Mars colonization missions if governments won't pony up. If this is mostly true, then I think the point of his new 10 year comp plan is to demonstrate to the market that he plans to lead Tesla hands on for the next ten years. While making this known to the market has not by itself greatly boosted the SP, it may help significantly once M3 ramp insecurity is resolved later this year, and new GFs are announced.
While Elon likely doesn't spend time fretting over short term volatility, I expect he wants to see large increases in SP as that will make getting additional capital easier/cheaper, and that will help get Tesla back on the hyper accelerated track Elon wants.

 

[jhm]

$333

 

[ValueAnalyst]

So you with Chanos or EM choose and let us know.

I’m long, but I like that you can’t tell. Equally hated by bulls and bears alike. What a dream come true.

 

[Lessmog]

I expect Elon to recuse himself, as well as all other board members affected by the program. That would take well over 20M votes off the table. Worth pondering.

 

[Nakata]

$333

 

[mongo]

I expect Elon to recuse himself, as well as all other board members affected by the program. That would take well over 20M votes off the table. Worth pondering.

It's required.

Approval of the CEO Performance Award requires (1) the affirmative vote of the holders of a majority of the total votes of shares of Tesla common stock cast in person or by proxy at the Special Meeting, pursuant to the rules of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (the “ NASDAQ Stock Market Rules ”), (2) the affirmative vote of a majority of the voting power of the shares present in person or represented by proxy at the Special Meeting and entitled to vote on the proposal, pursuant to Tesla’s amended and restated bylaws, and (3) the affirmative vote of the holders of a majority of the total votes of shares of Tesla common stock not owned, directly or indirectly, by Elon Musk or Kimbal Musk, cast in person or by proxy at the Special Meeting, pursuant to the resolutions of the Board approving the CEO Performance Award.

Interesting that, although considered by some to be too large, this compensation package in full, is about 60% of what Elon already owns.