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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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FSD cannot be solved at the individual vehicle level with brute force because the car cannot communicate with the server or the rest of the fleet in real time to decide what to do. It has to be able to decide what to do by itself and immediately, it doesn't have time to think about what to do either. The best chess master loses to the computer because the computer has all the sum total of computations it has ever done to reference. The car on the road doesn't have all data gathered by the whole fleet on board nor could it have a computer powerful enough to reference all that data in real time, nor can it rely on the computer which has done all the computations because that's on a server somewhere and the car isn't 100% guaranteed a connection, and especially not one with zero latency, to help it think about the road it's on right now.

Do we really know what data is sent to the car? It’s possible local caching could occur as well.
 
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All TSLA traders should be prepared for the market to react on the unmotivated answer of Elon linked above. Why bring up the ugly word again ?

Go read Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive. Elon has been in this mode forever. This is the same tone he used in many of Tesla's internal communication, like urging free flow of information. You can even hear that same tone in mkbhd's interview, where he mentioned many times how powerful the competitors are.

But I guess that's one way people can spin it. Probably wise to prepare for another drop.
 
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So I’m reading the book, The Everything Store, about Amazon’s early years. These passages were very interesting:

But the deluge of spending and the widening losses had fueled fear among Amazon’s management team—a fear that Bezos, still a young and volatile thirty-five-year-old CEO, needed additional help. And after hearing persistent grumbling from the ranks that Bezos didn’t listen to his subordinates, the Amazon board initiated one of the biggest misadventures of the company’s first decade. The board members asked Bezos to search for a chief operating officer.

...

Galli hit Amazon like an angry bull let loose on the streets of Pamplona. Everywhere around him, he saw employees operating without the discipline he had learned during his nineteen years at Black and Decker. “There were all these brilliant kids from Stanford and Harvard running up and down the halls,” Galli says. “But we lacked operational rigor and control. It was the Wild West.”

...

Bezos and Galli’s collaboration was troubled from the start. Though Bezos had drawn the new organizational structure himself, he kept his hands firmly on Amazon’s steering wheel throughout Galli’s tenure, voicing detailed opinions about everything from acquisitions to minute changes in the appearance of the home page. Galli thought he had signed up to run the company, and eventually he began to agitate for more authority. “Frankly, Joe was disruptive,” says board member Tom Alberg. “What Joe wanted was to be CEO, but he wasn’t hired to do that.” Bezos took some time off after the birth of his first child, Preston, and then returned to find the company in an uproar over Galli’s abrasive style. Amazon and its board of directors now had a leadership crisis.
 
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All TSLA traders should be prepared for the market to react on the unmotivated answer of Elon linked above. Why bring up the ugly word again ?
Perhaps I'm misreading this, but my view is Elon is saying - I got home from the factory, I've seen the progress of the last two months, we got this - bankruptcy is not going to happen. Or do I have on my rose colored glasses?
 
Perhaps I'm misreading this, but my view is Elon is saying - I got home from the factory, I've seen the progress of the last two months, we got this - bankruptcy is not going to happen. Or do I have on my rose colored glasses?

I also thought he meant bankruptcy is not an option...

Elon Musk Says Changing His Way of Working Is Not an Option

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Why did he mention bankruptcy? What the heck has Ford to do with anything??
 
What surprised me about Munster's note after the NYT article is that he did not point out any of the speculativeness of the article. He took it at face value regarding Elon. Most of us here absolutely do not. It seems so obvious to me. I'm puzzled that Munster doesn't share our skepticism about the article. Elon's interview with MKB the same day shows Elon as the Elon we are used to - tired and in need of a haircut, but he certainly doesn't look like he is on the verge of losing it.

Andrea James actually indicated she thinks the NYT article will be a positive in the longer term. She also made some comments that there really wasn't anything new from the article. She did embrace the idea from the article that the Board is actively searching for a COO, which appears to be completely speculative. CNBC and others really ran with that idea, blowing it up into the idea that Elon should either be let go, or at the very least, take a leave of absence.


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I doubt stockholders would want Tesla stock to be based on company fundamentals. It would be a bloodbath for the stock. Tesla valuation is all about Elon and his vision. Without that Tesla is an auto stock.
 
I also thought he meant bankruptcy is not an option...



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Why did he mention bankruptcy? What the heck has Ford to do with anything??

He means that he is putting in the long hours to ensure that we sustain 5K/week and thus profitability in Q3/Q4. & that bankruptcy is not an option. He understands why he is doing it and is sacrificing himself to meet these goals.
 
In mid 2000, in the middle of the dot com bust, Amazon had to deal with Wall Street bears as well. Here’s another passage from that book which I think is timely [Suria was a bearish analyst]:

The real danger for Amazon was that the Lehman report might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Suria’s predictions spooked suppliers into going on the equivalent of a bank run and demanding immediate payment from Amazon for their products, Amazon’s expenses might rise. If Suria frightened customers and they turned away from Amazon because they believed, from the ubiquitous news coverage, that the Internet was only a fad, Amazon’s revenue growth could go down. Then it really could be in trouble. In other words, the danger for Amazon was that in their wrongness, Suria and other Wall Street bears might prove themselves right. “The most anxiety-inducing thing about it was that the risk was a function of the perception and not the reality,” says Russ Grandinetti, Amazon’s treasurer at the time.
 
9,000 VINs registered in the last 24 hours:

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Is the goal here to oust musk and fight
Your friend is thinking in terms of corporations and entities. He needs to change his mindset to a country called Saudi Arabia, where its funds are entirely reliant on oil, a commodity that may not be as popular 20-30 years from now as it is going to be replaced. The Saudis are hedging against an epic downfall of oil prices, which will be replaced by alternative energy that is cleaner and more efficient. If the Saudis don’t make that hedge, their country may fall not only into poverty one day, but they might be looking at revisiting the Stone Age.

Oil is also a finite resource. Even if there's still some left, there becomes a point where the cost of extraction makes it no longer feasible. Having the world slowly move to electric also has the effect of extending oil supplies. Saudis will sell less oil but for a longer time.
 
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All TSLA traders should be prepared for the market to react on the unmotivated answer of Elon linked above. Why bring up the ugly word again ?

I only see 1 problem in that tweet: he should have directed it to @BobLutz as a response to his latest bad-mouthing of Elon/Tesla. The one who bankrupted GM should not lecture him about how to run a manufacturing company.
 
The article was explicitly focused on Musk's state of mind, not production numbers. Arguably, his state of mind is relevant. The question is how balanced their reporting really was (I don't know the answer, but I suspect not very.)
Seems more like a personal attack on him. It's definitely relevant cuz Musk is half of Tesla's share price!
He means that he is putting in the long hours to ensure that we sustain 5K/week and thus profitability in Q3/Q4. & that bankruptcy is not an option. He understands why he is doing it and is sacrificing himself to meet these goals.
H
That would probably be the case, if they are currently negotiating privately with said investors, but only explain why the entities involved in that negotiation do not add. But there have to be players that won't be allowed to own big stakes in a private corp, so they will stay away from those negotiations. If there was a reasonable chance for a buyout at $420 to happen, i'd assume they would increase there holdings to profit from the upside, should that deal go through.
The simple answer to all this in my opinion is that if the deal appears to be real/going thru, through stock will rise toward the set price of the deal. So, the reason it's so low is the market doesn't believe it's imminent or even close to happening. All the rest is too unknown to discuss. Any positive news of a deal going thru will increase the stock price. Long tsla via stock and options.
 
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