Permaban is not within my powers. I recommended it but it wasn't actioned. Temporarily banned again, a couple of others on the edge but currently behaving.
"Instabanning" had a major problem with the "Insta" part. I/we do as well as I/we can.
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"Instabanning" had a major problem with the "Insta" part. I/we do as well as I/we can.
bdy0627
Active Member
You win some and you lose some. Spiegel did win that round.
I sent Pamela Anderson a msg on her instagram to meet today at noon for some coffee and casual conversation. Wish us both luck.
Hey, you never even got to see half of his posts!This isn't exactly Mike117's first rodeo; he's been doing this repeatedly, and each time people have been calling for mods to act, and each time nothing has happened.
Hopefully you've taken care of the problem.
(ED: Happy 2000th page, everyone!)
The most optimistic legal analysis I’ve seen suggests that Elon has only a 50/50 shot in court. Most analysts think this case is as straight forward as it gets for the SEC (probably why it only took them two months to file).
I know there is a tendency on this board for bulls to say everything negative is a short conspiracy, but for people convinced that Elon is right to turn the settlement down which required him admitting no guilty or stepping down from CEO can you please point to some legal analysis by an expert for this basis? This is Elon’s ego over everything. Elon might genuinely believe that he did nothing wrong and I personally believe he had no ill intent. But the fact is, according to legal analysis I’ve read, when he tweeted funding secured as a public CEO he should’ve had the damn funding secured. A belief that he would get the funding is not the same as being secured, this is the crux of the case and why most legal analysts view this as a slam dunk for SEC.
Also it just got that much harder for Tesla to keep their talent or execute as this is an enermous cloud hanging over the company now.
I really hope Elon reconsiders soon and takes the settlement.
Btw I am not concerned by the DOJ investigation at all. As I understand it, Criminal would require intent and there was none.
I know there is a tendency on this board for bulls to say everything negative is a short conspiracy, but for people convinced that Elon is right to turn the settlement down which required him admitting no guilty or stepping down from CEO can you please point to some legal analysis by an expert for this basis? This is Elon’s ego over everything. Elon might genuinely believe that he did nothing wrong and I personally believe he had no ill intent. But the fact is, according to legal analysis I’ve read, when he tweeted funding secured as a public CEO he should’ve had the damn funding secured. A belief that he would get the funding is not the same as being secured, this is the crux of the case and why most legal analysts view this as a slam dunk for SEC.
Also it just got that much harder for Tesla to keep their talent or execute as this is an enermous cloud hanging over the company now.
I really hope Elon reconsiders soon and takes the settlement.
Btw I am not concerned by the DOJ investigation at all. As I understand it, Criminal would require intent and there was none.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So the price is at $270. I think things are looking up from here.
Recent news is quite a shock, but I think that as the market sorts out what it all means, price will recover. Time is basically on our side. As we move out of this news cycle. Increasingly attention will turn to the Model 3 growth story.
With or without Musk, the Model 3 may be the most valuable new model to enter the market in ten years. It is the envy of any automaker of substance.
The greater risk right now is that a low share price could provoke a hostile takeover of the company, especially to the degree that Musk himself is marginalized. So it is important for longs to hold tight. We own the Model 3 and all the rest, so any buyout offer needs to register that full value.
So I see this as a battle for who will own Tesla. It is not because Tesla is worth so little, but to the contrary, because Tesla is worth quite alot and Elon owns 22% of it. Marginalizing Musk makes Tesla a much easier acquisition. Not to presuppose any conspiracy, collective greed has made Musk a prime target.
Recent news is quite a shock, but I think that as the market sorts out what it all means, price will recover. Time is basically on our side. As we move out of this news cycle. Increasingly attention will turn to the Model 3 growth story.
With or without Musk, the Model 3 may be the most valuable new model to enter the market in ten years. It is the envy of any automaker of substance.
The greater risk right now is that a low share price could provoke a hostile takeover of the company, especially to the degree that Musk himself is marginalized. So it is important for longs to hold tight. We own the Model 3 and all the rest, so any buyout offer needs to register that full value.
So I see this as a battle for who will own Tesla. It is not because Tesla is worth so little, but to the contrary, because Tesla is worth quite alot and Elon owns 22% of it. Marginalizing Musk makes Tesla a much easier acquisition. Not to presuppose any conspiracy, collective greed has made Musk a prime target.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Care to share a link to this "most optimistic legal analysis"?
If we assume that the facts as presented about which meeting took place when, as cited in the lawsuit, are correct, then I find it more than credible that he should have known that his presentation on Twitter of what happened behind closed doors was misleading. Here is a pertinent question for you : "Assume that the $420 buyout price was never discussed with the Saudi fund, would you then accept that Elon's tweet about the $420 price was reckless?" On the opposite argument, I would accept that if Elon discussed with the Saudi's something like : "a 20% premium to the stock price as a target" then that's enough to support the reasonableness of his tweets on the price.
I agree it is one-sided and incomplete, that's just how the process works. Elon can answer with his side of the story. That SEC's lawsuit is not supported by law seems like a very dubious proposition. Recklessness as a sufficient basis for scienter in securities fraud is a thing.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Has any of those "legal analysts" noted that the SEC trying to dictate the format of truthful statements of Elon where he informs shareholders creates prior restraint on speech by a federal agency, which is highly frowned upon on constitutional grounds, as it violates the First Amendment? Prior restraint of speech falls under the most stringent review under the First Amendment, with very few exceptions granted in general.
Just to see how strong the prohibition against prior restraint of speech is, here's the SEC requiring a convicted fraudster to restrain his speech, in the "Lowe v. Securities and Exchange Commission" precedent:
Even that restriction of someone who was convicted of misappropriating client funds was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. (!)
The SEC requiring Elon to format truthful speech in a certain manner and punishing him for truthful speech is unprecedented, and in obvious conflict with the First Amendment, IMO.
Also, why did the SEC only ask for a 'slap on the wrist' settlement with a symbolic fine, if their case is so strong?
I've read their complaint and I think their case is weak for various other reasons as well, FWIIW.
His lawyer would claim otherwise.
It was not as CEO speaking for Tesla, it was as a ~20% share holder.
A correct belief is not fraud. The 3rd party teams brought in said the conversion had sufficient backing.
The only way this lawsuit makes sense to me is if Elon had produced the plan, the shareholder voted for it, and then there was no funding.
Or if an investor said they would buy the whole company at atime when the price was say $280 a share x 176 million shares = 49 billion or so. And you use that as a reference for the amount they are willing to invest to go private. So at $420 that is ~117 million shares or 67% of the company. If 33% of shareholders carry over to the private version, that is totally rational.
Elon screwed up when he tweeted that crap. He definitely messed me up as I committed funds that I had absolutely no plans on committing. These funds are looking ugly now. No, I am not suing. What do you take me for? Am picking up an M3P- on Saturday instead.
With the deal refusal he is letting perfection be the enemy of the good. Love Elon, but he is not helping anyone with this behavior, most of all himself.
He is also unnecessarily jeopardizing the ultimate mission of I believe most everyone here: electrification of the global fleet, retirement of fossil fuels.
Spoke to some people with experience (noone in the SEC to be clear). Some salient points:
1). This will take no less than a year. This was described as a time frame for an aggressive SEC and a judge friendly to the SEC. If not for the fact that the SEC is obviously pushing this it would easily take three to six years. Maybe it still will.
2). Criminal charges are doubtful at this point as usually the DOJ takes the lead and the civil part is secondary. For example, that should have been a joint press conference with the DoJ. Since they are no shows as of now it appears that they are not interested in pressing criminal charges.
Really have no idea where SP is going right now, but it appears all of this may put Tesla into doubt unless the profits actually appear. Musk better be delivering on that or this sugarshow is just getting started.
Ugh, why is he making this so hard? Tesla is on the verge of real and lasting success. Did not need this to say the least.
Elon, please make me look like a complaining idiot. Get to it.
With the deal refusal he is letting perfection be the enemy of the good. Love Elon, but he is not helping anyone with this behavior, most of all himself.
He is also unnecessarily jeopardizing the ultimate mission of I believe most everyone here: electrification of the global fleet, retirement of fossil fuels.
Spoke to some people with experience (noone in the SEC to be clear). Some salient points:
1). This will take no less than a year. This was described as a time frame for an aggressive SEC and a judge friendly to the SEC. If not for the fact that the SEC is obviously pushing this it would easily take three to six years. Maybe it still will.
2). Criminal charges are doubtful at this point as usually the DOJ takes the lead and the civil part is secondary. For example, that should have been a joint press conference with the DoJ. Since they are no shows as of now it appears that they are not interested in pressing criminal charges.
Really have no idea where SP is going right now, but it appears all of this may put Tesla into doubt unless the profits actually appear. Musk better be delivering on that or this sugarshow is just getting started.
Ugh, why is he making this so hard? Tesla is on the verge of real and lasting success. Did not need this to say the least.
Elon, please make me look like a complaining idiot. Get to it.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I would not accept that at all.
I actually read Elon's tweet live as it was sent, and within moments I knew that $420 is the standard +20% buy-out opening bid on top of the current stock price at the time of the tweet which was around $350. (I have even commented about it as it happened.)
So to me the communications from Elon were clear, and his subsequent tweets filled in some of the other details and constraints. None of it was misleading to me personally in their original context, and I don't think it should have been misleading to a regular investor either.
There was (understandable) uncertainty as shareholders would have to agree to it which are mostly institutional investors who'd have trouble going private, but the other parameters the SEC tries to make such a big deal out of were comparably small details.
Selling or buying based on that information would have been probabilistic - I assigned a high probability to Elon taking Tesla private, but I knew that it was not 100%.
But I'd have been upset if today was the first time I learned about it.
Premarket volume is very high at almost 2M already. And then next week we get deliveries which could be even more turbulent the day after! A lot of buyers and sellers, place your bets and best of luck to you all! =)
No matter what, panic sale in this kind of situation is extremely dangerous. This is a reminder for myself only. Not an advice. I did not sell when it dropped to 150 and many times at 255. Why I would sell now that Tesla is finally in good shape of M3 and beyond. Coilin Rusch is right. He reiterated his 385 target this morning.
Please realize he is not being sued for fraud. Everyone keeps talking about intent here, and intent doesn’t matter. He can be found guilty of recklessness.
My first thought driving to work today. The car and the stock are in great contrast to each other. There is absolutely no drama with the car. It goes when you ask it to and it does not make loud noises as if struggling to do what you ask of it. The controls are remarkably simple and TACC handles all the stop and go calmly and steadily.
I honestly can't imagine the stock would have acted much differently had the settlement been announced yesterday instead. It isn't down that much now considering we were at this price 3 weeks ago.
Now, I look forward to October. Not only because of how delivery numbers might help the stock, but also because I hope once the end-of-quarter push is done someone can get around to fixing my account so I start getting app access.
I honestly can't imagine the stock would have acted much differently had the settlement been announced yesterday instead. It isn't down that much now considering we were at this price 3 weeks ago.
Now, I look forward to October. Not only because of how delivery numbers might help the stock, but also because I hope once the end-of-quarter push is done someone can get around to fixing my account so I start getting app access.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Some good points. Other bits and pieces I picked up scouring the interwebs:
- apparently the SEC charge was filed in New York, not San Francisco, although it was mainly SEC San Fran looking into the case. Whatever this means, we don't know, but some find it odd and assume SEC San Fran didn't have a strong enough case;
- the SEC charge is paper thin and rushed, containing little fact / proof. SEC "likes deals" and this might be a way to pressure Elon into accepting a deal;
- with the charge, Tesla cannot raise money. Shorts belief Tesla is definitely doomed now since they expect no profit in Q3 and the debt coming up early 2019. (This point confuses me as the charge is pointed at Elon, not Tesla. Help?)
- as stated by Traxila: this is a civil case and will take at least a year. There are a lot of predictions being thrown around, but Tesla will in the worst case have to deal with Elon stepping down around 2020. Enough time for Tesla to show profitability and the stock to recover.
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It's funny how with TSLA every time we're nearing something fundamentally great, that would logically propulse the SP higher. Something bad happens, that stifle the effect....
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