TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lklundin]

1. European 'black market' @Lang&Schwarz is already trading +10% on TSLA

Thanks for the helpful recap.

Since I think I provided the above link and since I stated that TSLA was 10% up, I wanted to point out that I later realized that this number from that German market maker is the mid price of the bid/ask at the close of their Sunday session. Their last actual trade was somewhat lower, at 249 €, a gain of about 9%.

Btw, this is moot in about 11 hours when the Nasdaq pre-market trading starts, at which point I expect to be watching the ticker...

 

[NikeWings]

You guys are forcing Bloomberg to take note.....musk's army out in full force!
Terms of Service Violation

 

[Fact Checking]

We have seen this type of price action before several times throughout the past 4-5 months, and the open is often a 60-90 minute high, met with selling and a better buying oppty if one wants to truly get long. so, just sayin'

On Monday the Rule 201 uptick rule restrictions of short sellers are still going to be in effect until the close: shorts will be significantly limited in their price manipulation tools, they won't be able to spike down the price during lower mid-morning liquidity as they usually do when they try to fade the opening rise for an intraday play.

We saw the resulting lack of the Mid-Morning-Dip very clearly the last time the uptick rule was in effect a couple of weeks ago, after the "David Gelles NYT drop".

Just saying, not advice!

 

[Fact Checking]

Their last actual trade was somewhat lower, at 249 €, a gain of about 9%.

249€ is ~$289.

I do have the feeling that the seller is probably going to regret that transaction on Monday and Tuesday.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What does this mean?

There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip - Wikipedia

Proverb similar to "don't count your chickens before they hatch".

 

[dmunjal]

On Monday the Rule 201 uptick rule restrictions of short sellers are still going to be in effect until the close: shorts will be significantly limited in their price manipulation tools, they won't be able to spike down the price during lower mid-morning liquidity as they usually do when they try to fade the opening rise for an intraday play.

We saw the lack of the Mid-Morning-Dip very clearly the last time the uptick rule was in effect a couple of weeks ago, after the "David Gelles NYT drop".

Just saying, not advice!

I expect shorts will be covering at the open before Q3 delivery numbers come out. They will come back to short again after the pop.

 

[Fact Checking]

I expect shorts will be covering at the open before Q3 delivery numbers come out. They will come back to short again after the pop.

Currently there are over 33 million shares short TSLA.

How many of those short positions do you expect to be covered before the Q3 delivery report is out, i.e. by the end of Monday?

 

[dmunjal]

Currently there are over 33 million shares short TSLA.

How many of those short positions do you expect to be covered before the Q3 delivery report is out, i.e. by the end of Monday?

It really depends on the price of the short position. I expect all shorts initiated on Thursday and Friday to close out because they missed the weekend bullish news.

Some percentage of recent shorts will also close their positions to come back again from a stronger position. Reading SeekingAlpha, it seems many are expecting a run to ATH to put on a new position.

Long term shorts like Speigel will likely hold.

 

[RFernatt]

By the way, though I love the playful Krugerrand cat, your's reminds me of a Wellesley girl who once said "what do you expect from a day that begins with getting out of bed." Also, did your cat drink too much last night? (With all due respect to Amy Klobuchar.)

LOL, that is my cat Loki. She and her sister are 3 year old torties rescued as kittens. She was in "crazy time" looking out the window when I snapped that. She is half dog I think. She likes to play fetch and will bring you toys when she wants to play. She also has an odd fascination with large rubber bands for some reason. She is very unique and the most loving cat I've ever had. My wife says Loki is my cat and the other one, Tikka, is hers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Predictions in terms of how long it will take Elon to make back his $20 million:

Elon owns ~20% of TSLA's 170M shares, so the SEC fine is about $0.59 per share.

Elon made that back in Frankfurt already on Sunday afternoon, 48 X over: ($28/sh)

251,5000 € ~ $292.21 USD ^10.19% @ 18:58 CT​

And that means he's already made back close to $1B.

 

[BornToFly]

We have seen this type of price action before several times throughout the past 4-5 months, and the open is often a 60-90 minute high, met with selling and a better buying oppty if one wants to truly get long. so, just sayin'

Except that tomorrow will hopefully be a rebound from Fridays huge drop. It may depend on how much it recovers during pre-market. It could open at 280 or 290+. I would not expect a MMD tomorrow, but I obviously don't know for sure any more than anyone else here. We are all just guessing, based partly on previous large one day dips, and partly on emotion....

 

[EVMeister]

And partly on the circuit breaker being in effect.

 

[BornToFly]

On Monday the Rule 201 uptick rule restrictions of short sellers are still going to be in effect until the close: shorts will be significantly limited in their price manipulation tools, they won't be able to spike down the price during lower mid-morning liquidity as they usually do when they try to fade the opening rise for an intraday play.

Are we sure about this? Can someone confirm that there was NO short selling on Friday? (I'm surprised it dropped that much without short selling).

P.S. - I LOVE your posts Fact Checking. You have become one of the most informative members on this forum! I just want to be sure you're right on this one....

 

[Open Interest]

You guys are forcing Bloomberg to take note.....musk's army out in full force!
Terms of Service Violation

This is actually a positive piece; no FUD, no spin.

Completely unlike the one I just read on Axios, culled from Google News, in which Tesla “is still burning through $1 billion a quarter”.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Are we sure about this? Can someone confirm that there was NO short selling on Friday? (I'm surprised it dropped that much without short selling).

P.S. - I LOVE your posts Fact Checking. You have become one of the most informative members on this forum! I just want to be sure you're right on this one....

The rule doesn't forbid short-selling. It just says that a short sale can only happen on an uptick (the rule is enforced by the exchange). Short-selling can occur but it is defanged, because it cannot be used to amplify downward movements.

 

[Toolsmack]

Are we sure about this? Can someone confirm that there was NO short selling on Friday? (I'm surprised it dropped that much without short selling).

P.S. - I LOVE your posts Fact Checking. You have become one of the most informative members on this forum! I just want to be sure you're right on this one....

The uptick rule does not eliminate all short selling for the day, it just prevents them from aggressively selling in front of Long’s that may be wanting to sell. It prevents the ‘icicle’s’ as Papafox calls them in his daily summaries. As long as there was confirmation of the rule in effect on Friday, it will also be in effect on Monday until close

 

[wipster]

Been off the boards most of the morning and I'm too lazy to go look, any reports on sales at the various locations where owners are helping out?

Inquiring minds are curious!

 

[Open Interest]

Are we sure about this? Can someone confirm that there was NO short selling on Friday? (I'm surprised it dropped that much without short selling).

P.S. - I LOVE your posts Fact Checking. You have become one of the most informative members on this forum! I just want to be sure you're right on this one....

I second this and totally agree!!

 

[The Blue Owl]

It really depends on the price of the short position. I expect all shorts initiated on Thursday and Friday to close out because they missed the weekend bullish news.

Some percentage of recent shorts will also close their positions to come back again from a stronger position. Reading SeekingAlpha, it seems many are expecting a run to ATH to put on a new position.

Long term shorts like Speigel will likely hold.

Of course. Spiegel wants to cover his short in the $30s.

 

[Toolsmack]

Been off the boards most of the morning and I'm too lazy to go look, any reports on sales at the various locations where owners are helping out?

Inquiring minds are curious!

I know Leilani Münter is delivering here in Charlotte this weekend. I tried to talk my wife into letting me sneak out there to help too but she’s smart enough to figure out my angle