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Reciprocity
Active Member
Im not saying 15k deliveries, just a a 15xxx VIN in the wild or at least assigned. We have seen some over 12k and as they approach 2k/w, you would think they would start to get close in the next 10 business days, but I am sure they will be doing deliveries on Sat. the 31st as well. If not, then we might be looking at something less then 2k, which I am dreading.
This is my reference:
Highest production VIN in the wild
Two quotes from that page:
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bdy0627
Active Member
Good news on the VIN data. I'm getting more optimistic that perhaps we will hear they are getting close to a rate of 2,000/week and rapidly increasing. If we also hear the Grohmann line is almost complete and will startup very soon, increasing the production rate further, then I wouldn't fear the Q1 ER. On the other hand, the stock is likely to turn around and climb again soon, so we may actually go into the ER on a climb. The ER may be weak enough in the face of a climb that it sends us back down. I think it all depends upon the stock movement leading into the ER.
$245 should be a worst case scenario from now until Q3 that would require bad M3 ramp news low MS/MX deliveries, as well as macros going down in my opinion.
Goldman Sachs would have you to believe $205 during that timeframe, so I'm by no means the bearest of bears.
bdy0627
Active Member
We didn't get anywhere near that level with the 12% S&P correction in February. It would take more than that, perhaps twice that correction. Possible but not at all likely.
I'm not sure which analyst is dumber the one at GS or Bernstein Research. He's talking about a poor "take rate" for Model 3 existing owners using some unknown sample size while not considering any other factors. Amazing how these guys still have jobs in their field.
Enjoy the sale right now longs.
Enjoy the sale right now longs.
sundaymorning
Active Member
That’s really funny, my best case scenario for 3rd Q is $600 if they achieve 5,000, beat on MS/X with strong macros.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
Interesting. What jumps out at me is that the majority are east coast. There is one CA, but 3 of the 5 that have a location are east coast. My guess is that this will fill up this week with west coast deliveries maybe?
Indeed, it did not seem to dawn on Bernstein's Sacconaghi that the Model S & X owners are the ones most likely to be waiting for dual motor Model 3's to become available as their second Teslas. They are also the ones least likely to need a Model 3 right away. Or perhaps such an apparent oversight was intentional to further justify his earlier negative comments and low price target.
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got a 290/320 short strangle expiring this week. would be more than ok with having the 320 option exercised.
Here's a couple things he missed:
- Model S and X are entirely different classes of car (someone who drives a 7 may not want a 3 series in the BMW world)
- Model 3 has no AWD (which you nailed, Deferral)
- White Interior Option (Deferral)
- Performance Variant (Deferral)
- People who converted to S/X who couldn't wait for the 3/misinformed about S/X
- Those who don't need a second car
- Those who are waiting for leasing
Totally missed on those who are non-Tesla owners waiting to configure. It's fine that he twists things for his rhetoric but for people to invest based on that is just criminal
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Yeah, I didn't understand the logic of thinking more than 30% of Model S owners somehow needed a new car. Do people generally buy a brand new high-end car, sell it 3 years later and buy a model that's a step down?
I can say as a family with 2 Model 3's. The car is so amazing that even if every last reservation was cancelled today , as soon as the general public sees and gets rides in a Model 3, there would be 400,000 reservations all over again! At least 50% of the people who have ridden in our model 3's in the last 3 months have made a new reservation.
Also, though the 2wd, long range version suits my family just right, I can understand that many, many buyers with deep pockets would wait for a more premium AWD/Performance/white interior version. And that many, many buyers would wait for the $35,000 base car.
Sacconaghi was referring to Model S & X owners who have reservations for Model 3's, and have not yet taken advantage of the opportunity to order one ahead of non-owners. Some of us have provided likely reasons for this in posts above, including waiting for the availability of dual motor Model 3's.
When I was in the queue at an Illinois Tesla store to reserve a Model 3 two years ago, the people on either side of me were Model S owners who both wanted a Model 3 as a second car. Interestingly, both were from Wisconsin where Tesla stores are prohibited. So their making time consuming trips to Illinois early on a weekday morning indicated they were really interested in obtaining Model 3's. At that time it was not known that various configuration availabilities would be time separated.
Meanwhile, I am a current non-owner but have indicated on the Tesla website that I will wait for dual motors to become available on the Model 3.
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I’m fine with the lack of demand narrative from the Bears. I would be happy to pick up more if it is clear the production has ramped for a few weeks but the stock price remains around where it is.
The lack of demand argument is an exceptionally weak one
The lack of demand argument is an exceptionally weak one
Here is another Bounce, Hold or Fail line for those of you who relish charts.
Well, sorry - it's not a line but a single datum. Regardless, it may have at least some psychological effect:
As of right now, with TSLA @ $314.79 and GM @ $37.21, Tesla remains the #1 market cap US auto maker: $53.17bn vs $52.13bn.
Well, sorry - it's not a line but a single datum. Regardless, it may have at least some psychological effect:
As of right now, with TSLA @ $314.79 and GM @ $37.21, Tesla remains the #1 market cap US auto maker: $53.17bn vs $52.13bn.
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