TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

Everyone here and at knowledgeable media like Electrek and Insideevs knows it's going to be around 7, maybe 8,000 , but think of what happened last quarter. The numbers came in right around where we were expecting them, but CNBC reported that analysts had been expecting 5,000 deliveries (even though there hadn't been a single VIN assigned anywhere near that), and that it was a huge, shocking disappointment. This is the exact same situation. They said just two days ago that current expectation are for 13,800 even though that's totally impossible. I just think the potential for a huge drop and buying opportunity is a lot higher than any short term upside right now.

Edit: I also think a lot of large investors are waiting for this buying opportunity, so the drop should be very short lived.

Mike - I agree with so much of what you post, and I do agree with concept of a 'set-up', but I have to respectfully disagree with the concept of a 'huge drop' following Q1 numbers release. I believe the set-up is the opposite.....that the price will run up after the numbers release, and that the goal was to get the price down 'as low as possible - but at a price level that still leaves the float as manipulable as possible before that happens. To me that price continues to be at-or-above 305. When the price drops below 305 it appears that the float is being swallowed up by institutional investors that are buying and holding - such as Tencent. The more the float shrinks up, the less the MM's can swing the price at will, and the greater the likelihood for a squeeze that will relinquish their control for perpetuity. Big Money makes a hell of a lot of money driving this stock up and down between the beginning and ends of each month and each quarter. And they use the longs and the shorts to do so as long as they have a long enough leash to do so. Thus in this case I think the 'set-up' is simply another bunch of GS and CNBC FUD in addition to some bad-ethic journalism to bring the price down just before the planned run-up. GS has done this time and time again with their rankings, ratings and commentary being the polar opposite just before a nice move in the 5+ years I have been holding & adding long, so I am suspect of anything they say once again. And the combination of their advice to sell just as the share price hits a resistance level below which the float will shrink suggests to me that a lot of buyers are lined up for quick money on TSLA. I say this respectfully, and it is of course without certainty and not an advice. Thanks for all your great contributions to the board.

 

[sundaymorning]

We still have 7 trading days to the end of the quarter. I get that the market usually drops TSLA after earnings. Why lighten up so soon before the ER?

To simply put it, I think Tesla will miss. As others have pointed out, we will be way short of 13.5k M3 production the street is now expecting. This has has become too much of a familiar theme with poor analyst who set Tesla up for a miserable quarter (much of that blame also falls on Tesla’s shoulders). This isn’t the first time this has happened, instead of being upset, I’ve decided to ride with the current instead of against it; although I know Tesla will do much better in Q2, it just makes sense for me to deliverage after a nice bounce, especially when my instinct is telling me a miss is immanent. The affect of a miss could be magnified with the overall bearish tone that bears seemingly are in control. Couple this with the fact that I don’t think we close above $320 indicates to me that $310 is possible before numbers are released, and a brief drop further might be in the cards with the now massive miss that the street has set us up for. For this reason I’m choosing to be on the sidelines and looking for a re-entry. With that being said, 60-70% of my cores are still in play. Glad I had he opportunity to shed some more weight after buying back in at $314 and selling at today’s top. The jump was somewhat expected but I don’t believe it will sustain. My outlook is day to day contingent on news and rumors.

 

[MP3Mike]

ER is May 2nd - six full weeks from today.

ER date hasn't been set yet according to Tesla.

 

[Mike Smith]

Mike - I agree with so much of what you post, and I do agree with concept of a 'set-up', but I have to respectfully disagree with the concept of a 'huge drop' following Q1 numbers release. I believe the set-up is the opposite.....that the price will run up after the numbers release, and that the goal was to get the price down 'as low as possible - but at a price level that still leaves the float as manipulable as possible before that happens. To me that price continues to be at-or-above 305. When the price drops below 305 it appears that the float is being swallowed up by institutional investors that are buying and holding - such as Tencent. The more the float shrinks up, the less the MM's can swing the price at will, and the greater the likelihood for a squeeze that will relinquish their control for perpetuity. Big Money makes a hell of a lot of money driving this stock up and down between the beginning and ends of each month and each quarter. And they use the longs and the shorts to do so as long as they have a long enough leash to do so. Thus in this case I think the 'set-up' is simply another bunch of GS and CNBC FUD in addition to some bad-ethic journalism to bring the price down just before the planned run-up. GS has done this time and time again with their rankings, ratings and commentary being the polar opposite just before a nice move in the 5+ years I have been holding & adding long, so I am suspect of anything they say once again. And the combination of their advice to sell just as the share price hits a resistance level below which the float will shrink suggests to me that a lot of buyers are lined up for quick money on TSLA. I say this respectfully, and it is of course without certainty and not an advice. Thanks for all your great contributions to the board.

I think we're actually in agreement Paracelsus - by 'big drop' I only meant to around 300, where long term buyers and funds have stepped in before and I expect will do so again. A miss of 6,000 deliveries is only the equivalent of 1 weeks' worth of deliveries later this year and won't concern those long term buyers as long as things appear to remain generally on track, which I think they will. I only think the drop will last for a few days at most (quite possibly less than a day) and then there will be a huge rally soon after. I've been selling since 340 because I want dry powder to buy short term options if this happens.

I just read a Forbes article which also says Model 3 deliveries are expected at 13,500-14,000.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To simply put it, I think Tesla will miss. As others have pointed out, we will be way short of 13.5k M3 production the street is now expecting.

The number of cars produced in 1Q pales in comparison to sustained production on the day of the call. If they've been pumping out cars for 2-3 weeks at a rate above expectation, that will overshadow any historical or financial data.

If this company can prove it's doing what Elon said it could do, then we're on the rocketship to $X (<---some absurd valuation)

 

[bdy0627]

ER is May 2nd - six full weeks from today.

Whoops, I meant the release of the delivery numbers.

 

[Mkorpal]

The number of cars produced in 1Q pales in comparison to sustained production on the day of the call. If they've been pumping out cars for 2-3 weeks at a rate above expectation, that will overshadow any historical or financial data.

If this company can prove it's doing what Elon said it could do, then we're on the rocketship to $X (<---some absurd valuation)

I just don't expect that to happen either. I think at best, we get a vague burst rate equivalent that is still short of the 2500/week rate. I'm currently looking for an exit point going into the delivery report. I know, don't time the market. But I don't see much evidence of a hit on production rate goal beyond VIN registration, and that is far too vague for me to rely on.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think we're actually in agreement Paracelsus - by 'big drop' I only meant to around 300, where long term buyers and funds have stepped in before and I expect will do so again. A miss of 6,000 deliveries is only the equivalent of 1 weeks' worth of deliveries later this year and won't concern those long term buyers as long as things appear to remain generally on track, which I think they will. I only think the drop will last for a few days at most (quite possibly less than a day) and then there will be a huge rally soon after. I've been selling since 340 because I want dry powder to buy short term options if this happens.

I just read a Forbes article which also says Model 3 deliveries are expected at 13,500-14,000.

Also, to be clear I only sold all my short term options two weeks ago at 340 and my medium term options today at 322. I still hold all my long term. I didn't mean to sound overly negative - only in the really short term. Shorts always attack big news events if they're at all negative.

 

[elasalle]

this is the closest info on M3 rates, I think we have based on actual facts (feedback from Mgmt):
Tesla could be falling short of key Model 3 goal, but who’s counting, analyst says

Tesla TSLA, +1.93% likely will be making 2,000 Model 3 sedans a week by the end of this month, below its target of churning out 2,500 of the key mass-market vehicles, said the analysts, led by James Albertine.

Consumer Edge recently hosted meetings with Tesla executives, and the potential Model 3 production miss was one of its “key takeaways” after the discussions, the analysts said



if it is a 2K/week rate I think it would be more than acceptable at this point. Hope they also provide update on Giga factory and more importantly on the new Grohman line - whether it is installed and has started production or not ...

 

[bdy0627]

I just don't expect that to happen either. I think at best, we get a vague burst rate equivalent that is still short of the 2500/week rate. I'm currently looking for an exit point going into the delivery report. I know, don't time the market. But I don't see much evidence of a hit on production rate goal beyond VIN registration, and that is far too vague for me to rely on.

I just think it's early to be getting in or out based upon anticipated market reaction to the production and delivery numbers miss. With 7 trading days to go until end of quarter, and down quite far on a dip, we may take a ride back up a little ways before the numbers are released. Smart shorts might even want to help us do that by covering and then preparing to short going into the announcement. I think if we climb back up to $340+, we will be quite vulnerable to a drop at that point. Not so much at this level though.

 

[bdy0627]

this is the closest info on M3 rates, I think we have based on actual facts (feedback from Mgmt):
Tesla could be falling short of key Model 3 goal, but who’s counting, analyst says

Tesla TSLA, +1.93% likely will be making 2,000 Model 3 sedans a week by the end of this month, below its target of churning out 2,500 of the key mass-market vehicles, said the analysts, led by James Albertine.

Consumer Edge recently hosted meetings with Tesla executives, and the potential Model 3 production miss was one of its “key takeaways” after the discussions, the analysts said



if it is a 2K/week rate I think it would be more than acceptable at this point. Hope they also provide update on Giga factory and more importantly on the new Grohman line - whether it is installed and has started production or not ...

I agree. I think if the rate is 2,000/week going into April with the Grohmann line expected to be up and running not long after, the stock may find buyers, particularly at these levels. I really think a lot of it depends upon the movement of the stock over the next 10 days.

 

[Mike Smith]

this is the closest info on M3 rates, I think we have based on actual facts (feedback from Mgmt):
Tesla could be falling short of key Model 3 goal, but who’s counting, analyst says

Tesla TSLA, +1.93% likely will be making 2,000 Model 3 sedans a week by the end of this month, below its target of churning out 2,500 of the key mass-market vehicles, said the analysts, led by James Albertine.

Consumer Edge recently hosted meetings with Tesla executives, and the potential Model 3 production miss was one of its “key takeaways” after the discussions, the analysts said



if it is a 2K/week rate I think it would be more than acceptable at this point. Hope they also provide update on Giga factory and more importantly on the new Grohman line - whether it is installed or not ...

I absolutely think they will say they're around 2,000/wk, but I don't think the market will be too moved given that they said they were exiting last quarter around 1k (or at least by end of Jan) and yet only delivered around 7k in Q1.

 

[Mkorpal]

I just think it's early to be getting in or out based upon anticipated market reaction to the production and delivery numbers miss. With 7 trading days to go until end of quarter, and down quite far on a dip, we may take a ride back up a little ways before the numbers are released. Smart shorts might even want to help us do that by covering and then preparing to short going into the announcement. I think if we climb back up to $340+, we will be quite vulnerable to a drop at that point. Not so much at this level though.

That is my thinking as well. No hard data, but I feel this stock likes to move upwards towards delivery reports and the ERs. So 340 is also my target right now. It was 360 last week with that major pop we had.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I absolutely think they will say they're around 2,000/wk, but I don't think the market will be too moved given that they said they were exiting last quarter around 1k (or at least by end of Jan) and yet only delivered around 7k in Q1.

I personally expect much more than 7k delivery in Q1.

But in any case, I doubt today offers the best price to sell. TSLA usually swings by $20-30 in 10 trading days most of the time. We've been below $325 since 3/15, I think the chance of remaining below $325 through the delivery report is almost nil. It's too narrow of a range for TSLA to sit in for extended time. I expect the PPS to pop up to $325 or higher sometime in the next week or so, and possibly dip right before the 4/3 weekend. If you want to sell some trading shares, I think there will be a better price point.

 

[RobStark]

I'm taking this opportunity to lighten up even more going into the delivery numbers:

1) CNBC said 2 days ago that the average analyst expected 13,800 model 3 deliveries. I'm guessing the analysts actually know better, but when they come in around 7000 the negative analysts and shorts are probably going to give us a huge buying opportunity.

I thought everybody was watching Bloomberg Vin counter which has 10k Model 3s produced all time as of a couple days ago.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Even InsideEV is quoting Bloomberg as source of production # estimate

Tesla Model 3 VIN Registrations Up, Production Down

If this is representative of how the market perceives M3 production, I think the current price point is a huge buying opportunity. Bloomberg seems to be underestimating a lot because they don't look at VIN assignments.

 

[RobStark]

Any chance someone from this moves to mars themselves? With Musk being the leader of the planet I’d love to contribute whatever is needed.

Much like George Washington declining the Crown, Elon supports direct democracy for a Mars colony.

 

[Mike Smith]

I thought everybody was watching Bloomberg Vin counter which has 10k Model 3s produced all time as of a couple days ago.

I wouldn't assume most investors know about anything, and reported analyst expectations remain 13.5-14k. Remember right before the end of last quarter some analysts started dropping their estimates closer to where they should have been, causing TSLA to drop. I don't see why this won't happen again now, since their estimates are again way too high. Any day we could get a report that so-and-so is dropping their estimate from 15,000 to 7,500 and down we go.

 

[RobStark]

I wouldn't assume most investors know about anything, and reported analyst expectations remain 13.5-14k. Remember right before the end of last quarter some analysts started dropping their estimates closer to where they should have been, causing TSLA to drop. I don't see why this won't happen again now, since their estimates are again way too high. Any day we could get a report that so-and-so is dropping their estimate from 15,000 to 7,500 and down we go.

By "everybody" I meant all the analyst. A professional TSLA analyst that does not know about the Bloomberg Model 3 Vin counter is grossly incompetent. If they dismiss it that is another thing altogether.

 

[Mike Smith]

By "everybody" I meant all the analyst. A professional TSLA analyst that does not know about the Bloomberg Model 3 Vin counter is grossly incompetent. If they dismiss it that is another thing altogether.

Brad Erickson at KeyBank dropped his estimate from 15k to 5k 4 days before the end of Q4, causing TSLA to drop significantly. I wouldn't underestimate their incompetence, or the market's willingness to pay attention to someone who clearly doesn't know what they're doing.

Edit: Even if they were just following Electrek, which I would have assumed all Tesla analysts do, they would have known their Q4 estimates were way off. Apparently not.