TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

I'm taking this opportunity to lighten up even more going into the delivery numbers:

1) CNBC said 2 days ago that the average analyst expected 13,800 model 3 deliveries. I'm guessing the analysts actually know better, but when they come in around 7000 the negative analysts and shorts are probably going to give us a huge buying opportunity.
2) S/X/3 deliveries probably won't be much higher than Q4, which will appear really bad.
2) The day the Musk compensation plan was announced tsla opened way higher but then closed down significantly.

Edit: I can't remember the last earnings or deliveries numbers where we didn't get at least a temporary large drop. Shorts try to make every news event look bad with a big attack the next day unless it's really, really obviously good news. I don't see that happening here.

I agree with this. M3 production is key right now. Approving the Musk deal adds zero value to Tesla’s bottom line for this Q or 2018 earnings. A huge congrats to Elon, happy to have him as CEO for the next 10 years.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm surprised anyone would think Elon's new compensation plan is a bad deal. If the market cap doesn't hit that super-high level, Elon will have been paid ZERO the whole time and will continue to be paid ZERO.

Compare with the Jeff Immelt compensation plan over at GE. GE stock did terribly, but Immelt was still paid millions of dollars.

Sure, Elon will be paid a huge chunk of shares if Tesla gets that huge market cap... but investors will be rolling in dough by then. Who would gripe about this?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Expert trolling by Elon, should start a much needed conversation.

 

[jelloslug]

I'm surprised anyone would think Elon's new compensation plan is a bad deal. If the market cap doesn't hit that super-high level, Elon will have been paid ZERO the whole time and will continue to be paid ZERO.

Compare with the Jeff Immelt compensation plan over at GE. GE stock did terribly, but Immelt was still paid millions of dollars.

Sure, Elon will be paid a huge chunk of shares if Tesla gets that huge market cap... but investors will be rolling in dough by then. Who would gripe about this?

Exactly, if he gets rich, everyone gets rich.

 

[madodel]

The Latest: AP Source: Stockholders approve Tesla CEO pay

Tesla values the all-or-nothing package at $2.6 billion at the current stock value. But that would rise dramatically if Musk meets 12 goals and Tesla reaches $650 billion in market capitalization. Also included are targets to increase adjusted pretax income and revenue.

Two firms that evaluate proxies for investors recommend that shareholders vote against the plan, which they say is unprecedented for a U.S. public company. Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis both peg the current value of Musk's package at $3.7 billion.​

I'd be very happy with another 10 fold increase in TSLA SP. Elon can have the $50 billion or whatever it amounts to by then. He is about the only billionaire I'd trust with all that. Mars here we come.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm taking this opportunity to lighten up even more going into the delivery numbers:

1) CNBC said 2 days ago that the average analyst expected 13,800 model 3 deliveries. I'm guessing the analysts actually know better, but when they come in around 7000 the negative analysts and shorts are probably going to give us a huge buying opportunity.
2) S/X/3 deliveries probably won't be much higher than Q4, which will appear really bad.
2) The day the Musk compensation plan was announced tsla opened way higher but then closed down significantly.

Edit: I can't remember the last earnings or deliveries numbers where we didn't get at least a temporary large drop. Shorts try to make every news event look bad with a big attack the next day unless it's really, really obviously good news. I don't see that happening here.

I think a miss on M3 delivery vs the 13800 target is already priced in, and if the miss is not as bad as people expect, for example significantly more than the 7000 # that you mentioned, then it may be a sell the rumor and buy the news type of event

 

[JRP3]

 

[Mike Smith]

I think a miss on M3 delivery vs the 13800 target is already priced in, and if the miss is not as bad as people expect, for example significantly more than the 7000 # that you mentioned, then it may be a sell the rumor and buy the news type of event

Everyone here and at knowledgeable media like Electrek and Insideevs knows it's going to be around 7, maybe 8,000 , but think of what happened last quarter. The numbers came in right around where we were expecting them, but CNBC reported that analysts had been expecting 5,000 deliveries (even though there hadn't been a single VIN assigned anywhere near that), and that it was a huge, shocking disappointment. This is the exact same situation. They said just two days ago that current expectation are for 13,800 even though that's totally impossible. I just think the potential for a huge drop and buying opportunity is a lot higher than any short term upside right now.

Edit: I also think a lot of large investors are waiting for this buying opportunity, so the drop should be very short lived.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I ended up buying back in this morning, I feel guilty for being shaken out but the shorts but better safe then sorry. Go Elon! Living in Ontario I’m expecting an invite to configure my model 3 1-2 months from now.

 

[Compton]

I'd be very happy with another 10 fold increase in TSLA SP. Elon can have the $50 billion or whatever it amounts to by then. He is about the only billionaire I'd trust with all that. Mars here we come.

Yep, he’ll just use the money to create a new company or push forward the existing ones. Based on his modus operandi both would probably be highly beneficial for the common good.

 

[mickificki]

my model 3 delivery is scheduled for monday. my ISA said the marina del rey schedule for deliveries is super crazy...hoping for a super strong finish in deliveries of M3's.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Yep, he’ll just use the money to create a new company or push forward the existing ones. Based on his modus operandi both would probably be highly beneficial for the common good.

Any chance someone from this moves to mars themselves? With Musk being the leader of the planet I’d love to contribute whatever is needed.

 

[Mike Smith]

my model 3 delivery is scheduled for monday. my ISA said the marina del rey schedule for deliveries is super crazy...hoping for a super strong finish in deliveries of M3's.

I'm sure they'll do all they can and it will be super busy, but I think low deliveries are baked in at this point based on VIN assignments given the delay between assignment and delivery. There's only a week and a half left in the quarter.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Everyone here and at knowledgeable media like Electrek and Insideevs knows it's going to be around 7, maybe 8,000 , but think of what happened last quarter. The numbers came in right around where we were expecting them, but CNBC reported that analysts had been expecting 5,000 deliveries (even though there hadn't been a single VIN assigned anywhere near that), and that it was a huge, shocking disappointment. This is the exact same situation. They said just two days ago that current expectation are for 13,800 even though that's totally impossible. I just think the potential for a huge drop and buying opportunity is a lot higher than any short term upside right now.

Edit: I also think a lot of large investors are waiting for this buying opportunity, so the drop should be very short lived.

Bloomberg's tracker has been showing 700/wk production forever now, so I'd say lowered expectation is out there in the media, not just limited to niche fan sites.

Even if we repeat Dec quarter, I can live with that price action, agreed the dip will be short-lived, I suspect it might be behind us already.

 

[bdy0627]

I agree with this. M3 production is key right now. Approving the Musk deal adds zero value to Tesla’s bottom line for this Q or 2018 earnings. A huge congrats to Elon, happy to have him as CEO for the next 10 years.

We still have 7 trading days to the end of the quarter. I get that the market usually drops TSLA after earnings. Why lighten up so soon before the ER?

 

[Krugerrand]

Approved by a wide margin according to Phil LeBeau on CNBC.

Wide margin because lots of us got to vote our shares 11 times .

 

[Mike Smith]

Bloomberg's tracker has been showing 700/wk production forever now, so I'd say lowered expectation is out there in the media, not just limited to niche fan sites.

Even if we repeat Dec quarter, I can live with that price action, agreed the dip will be short-lived, I suspect it might be behind us already.
View attachment 288139

CNBC, half the analysts, and the shorts all hate Tesla and will pretend to have been expecting far more deliveries than they actually are, just so they can act shocked when they come in 'way below expectations'. Why else would CNBC have said two days ago that deliveries are expected at 13,800? The Bloomberg tracker has been out for a long time now and I'm sure they're aware of it.

 

[ph_7]

We still have 7 trading days to the end of the quarter. I get that the market usually drops TSLA after earnings. Why lighten up so soon before the ER?

ER is May 2nd - six full weeks from today.

 

[Waiting4M3]

ER is May 2nd - six full weeks from today.

I think all eyes are on end of March delivery report, which should be ~12 days away, there is plenty of time for a 10% move, maybe even 2 of them, one in each direction.

After that, until ER in early May, we wouldn't surprised if we hit both 52-week high (ATH) and low ($302 on 4/3/2017)

 

[Tslynk67]

Still waiting for that taw return to grab some more, so hoping there's no pop before then...