TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Huskyf]

When the judge review the SEC Settlement I thing if no problem the Tesla Share go up rapidly ?

 

[Nocturnal]

This is a perfect example of how irrational the markets can be. There has been nothing except good news since the pre-tweet high and despite that we see this. Yeah the tweet was dumb and maybe you can worry that Elon might tweet more dumb things, but that doesn't change the actual fact of production goals being hit and likely profits. I except average Joes to be stupid, but it amazes me that the big institutional investors are also prone to this kind of behavior.

I know the market is down in general, but jeez.

 

[lklundin]

Waiting for my broker to sort my W-8BEN form so I can pick up some stock. Great to know the IRS now has my details

I deemed filling out this form unacceptable, since I am trading and am taxable in Germany and have no assets of any kind in the USA - and since the IRS form admonished me that providing false information would be a felony (or something to that effect). I consider myself a subject to German law, not US law.

So I found a broker that required me to declare only towards them any foreign, taxable assets I have.

 

[tivoboy]

This is a perfect example of how irrational the markets can be. There has been nothing except good news since the pre-tweet high and despite that we see this. Yeah the tweet was dumb and maybe you can worry that Elon might tweet more dumb things, but that doesn't change the actual fact of production goals being hit and likely profits. I except average Joes to be stupid, but it amazes me that the big institutional investors are also prone to this kind of behavior.

I know the market is down in general, but jeez.

Well, I wouldn't say there has been "nothing but good news". A lot of good news for sure, and some less than good and some recognition that production and delivery was harder than they had planned for and were capable of executing on and was going to be more costly..

 

[abasile]

Yes, mountain driving is how you convince the people with the pickles up their butts. If that kind of a driving experience doesn’t bring them out of their ICEs forever coma, then too stupid to live.

Regenerative braking is a huge selling point when I discuss our Tesla vehicles with other mountain residents. As is the "instant" torque for uphills. And the lack of engine noise. Good EVs are ridiculously superior to ICEs in the mountains. We need to raise awareness of the Model 3 AWD among those who'd normally buy new Subaru Outbacks, RAV4s, etc. The Model Y and Tesla Pickup are needed yesterday. If Tesla executes well, then Subaru is as good as dead, IMHO.

 

[Intl Professor]

Instead of trying to fit everyone into binary categories, I'd really suggest we treat it all in a more nuanced fashion:

• Everyone who spends money in equities, derivatives and other financial markets is an investor in a fashion.
• There's investors who support economic growth (longs), and there's investors who support economic contraction (shorts).
• While most of the time growth is good, sometimes contraction is justified: for example the contraction of Enron was arguably justified.
  
• When it comes to fairness in access to financial markets then in many cases shorts should have similar rights to longs: for example investors should be protected from a broker stealing client funds regardless of the direction of their trades.
• There's also ambiguity in certain financial products: for example if you buy ten lots of EUR/USD, technically you are going long Europe and are shorting the U.S. economy. There's also ETFs that aren't tied to a single company, and various derivatives related to interest rates, plus CFDs where technically you are long but not holding any shares.
  
• But when it comes to shares of a specific company, when the interests of shareholders and anti-shareholders collide, shareholders should take a precedence - and this is a principle that far precedes the creation of the SEC.
• While shorts betting in favor of economic contraction could in theory also have net positive balancing effects, in practice modern activist shorts have created an ugly track record of being parasitic lying scumbags, and SEC policy should recognize that well documented track record of deception and harm - like it does with anti-short mechanisms like short selling circuit breakers and the uptick rule. Shorts lie and deceive because creating artificial doubt about leveraged-growth companies is much cheaper and the outcome is much more certain than to identify genuinely overvalued companies...
• SEC policy should in fact recognize the fundamental asymmetry between 'creating fake positive news' pump-and-dump schemes (which fake positives are easy to falsify) and 'creating fake uncertainty' stock-dumping schemes that the Tesla shorts are performing, which are much harder to falsify, because countering FUD frequently involves proving a negative.
  
• This is what makes the SEC's enforcement action against Elon and Tesla so perverted: in their lawsuit they were not only actively siding with short position holders over truthful tweets of Elon that tried to help Tesla shareholders, but the SEC was also not recognizing the fiduciary duty Elon and Tesla has towards shareholders, which means they are legally required to actively work in the interests of Tesla shareholders, i.e. against the interests of Tesla short anti-shareholders. The SEC's action dropped the Tesla share price by much more than the brief spike Elon's tweets caused, which were reversed within a day or so.

Also, while you as a CALL option holder don't have shareholder rights, your interests are very much aligned with that of Tesla shareholders in almost all issues of Tesla's execution and their corporate governance. In fact I'd argue that if you hold a Tesla CALL option over 2 months you are more of a 'Tesla investor' than the day-trader or HFT who owns the shares for a few minutes or a few microseconds.

We hear a lot of talk these days about the lack of virtue in our considerations of money or politics. This post is an eloquent stab at applying moral considerations to investing without self-righteous pounding of water in a mortar.

It would seem the first principle of moral guidance is seeking "fairness." Research shows that is a natural development early in even children's responses to their environment. Why not adult behavior as well? The cruelty of climate change is probably just the Earth's immune system at work. The tragedy, as always, is the pain falls unevenly on the weak—another appeal to fairness.

 

[traxila]

AMZN, MSFT almost -4% wow, pure fear in the market!

LOL, you think this is fear? If fear really comes into the market you will know. When the QQQs start getting wacked 5 to 10 percent a day, there will be fear.

 

[ezevphl]

Regenerative braking is a huge selling point when I discuss our Tesla vehicles with other mountain residents. As is the "instant" torque for uphills. And the lack of engine noise. Good EVs are ridiculously superior to ICEs in the mountains. We need to raise awareness of the Model 3 AWD among those who'd normally buy new Subaru Outbacks, RAV4s, etc. The Model Y and Tesla Pickup are needed yesterday. If Tesla executes well, then Subaru is as good as dead, IMHO.

I think once they feel it, they are sold. I was just in the mountains two weekends ago and the Model 3 goes uphill with the same ease that an average sedan goes downhill... Whereas on a stretch with a moderate elevation decrease, I arrived 10 miles later with more charge than I started with.

 

[Off Shore]

In communcating with them directly, I find it easy and effortless to apply facts and reason to their arguments, or even ask simple questions which reveal their weaknesses. I even get a little joy from doing so. shrug. I say let them stay and if you really don't like to read what they write then put them on ignore.

And if you'd do all this by PM I wouldn't have to decide whether to read a [probably well-written] argument about Tesla's viability that I've seen > 1 dozen times before or scroll past. You're contributing to the Signal to Noise Ratio, but in the wrong direction. I realize I have an option but what if you say something original and useful?

 

[nursebee]

Swing batta batta swing!
SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

 

[RobStark]

So you're saying buy Ford April '19 Puts?? Maybe not a bad idea.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, I wouldn't say there has been "nothing but good news". A lot of good news for sure, and some less than good and some recognition that production and delivery was harder than they had planned for and were capable of executing on and was going to be more costly..

Fair. Mostly good news, and the less than good items weren't too bad.

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't know the previous situation, but T Rowe now have 10.2% ownership

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

Edit: seems to be up from - T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 6.99% 11,931,923 3,159,215,253 -3,693,875 -23.64%

So they sold a bunch and then bought back in again... Now have 17,419,812

Hmmm, is that all correct? Blah...

 

[bdy0627]

First entry 23x coming. ONLY 5% of position

Looks like you may need some additional macro help to get there. But, you never know...

 

[Nocturnal]

Regenerative braking is a huge selling point when I discuss our Tesla vehicles with other mountain residents. As is the "instant" torque for uphills. And the lack of engine noise. Good EVs are ridiculously superior to ICEs in the mountains. We need to raise awareness of the Model 3 AWD among those who'd normally buy new Subaru Outbacks, RAV4s, etc. The Model Y and Tesla Pickup are needed yesterday. If Tesla executes well, then Subaru is as good as dead, IMHO.

Don't forget the HP loss that ICE vehicles receive at higher altitude.

 

[Dutchie]

I just looked at the share price for the first time today. I give up.. One day up $15 next day down $15. Another day up $12 next day down $12 etc. All fo no apparent reason. It's insane. I think I wait for Q3 numbers come out before looking at the stock price again.

 

[nursebee]

 

[Krugerrand]

Or being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

We called it several years ago. They’re done. All of those companies are changing and most I believe will change into invisibility. But they are the least all done being as they are.

Here’s the thing that irritates me about the whole situation. Every week/month another ICE executive makes a new and contradictory public statement. One time it’s we’ll convert our whole vehicle lineup to PHEV or BEV, the next time it’s ‘Long Live ICEs!’ The next time it’s some combination.

They are lying to the public, their employees and quite possibly to themselves. But that’s not what really irritates me.

I’m irritated that I didn’t pay close enough attention to see all the lies that came before Tesla was on the scene. These people have been lying since before the birth of Bob. They are straight up liars.

Because of Tesla and Elon Musk, and my first ever really, really indepth over an extended period of years attention to the details, I no longer believe or trust anyone advertising their company or services. I no longer believe any news/media article, interview etc...

Elon via Tesla and SpaceX I believe. The timelines are sometimes off, but they are always moving in the direction they publicly announce. They make mistakes but they aren’t lying about them, and they just keep plugging away at the mission.

You know there is always an option, a direction, when one is caught between a rock and a hard place. Hardly anybody ever wants to make that choice but it’s there.

 

[NikeWings]

Drove up then down the almost 8 miles of the Mount Washington Auto Road in New Hampshire yesterday, a 6288 foot elevation. Winds were 50 to 60 MPH with higher gusts at higher elevations. Drive was a ton of fun, until visibility dropped to almost nothing once in the clouds. Couldn’t manage more than about 10 to 15 MPH with slower traffic ahead, not that I would have gone faster due to the extreme conditions.
”

Hey Joe. while enjoying a fabulous drive along the coast yesterday, I flashed back to the Kancamagus Highway and thought how beautiful it would be this time of year and especially in a Tesla! And the Auto Road had slipped my mind. Love the Mt Washington Valley!

 

[Leo9]

LOL, you think this is fear? If fear really comes into the market you will know. When the QQQs start getting wacked 5 to 10 percent a day, there will be fear.

10% would be panic, not fear.