TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Chocochip]

So here's my worthless interpretation of the lemur tweet. Elon says that "Tomorrow brings a lemur" and adds the photo of an actual lemur with them big eyes! Then he doubles down with "You'll see". Then he retweets a gif of a lemur peeling his eyes.

Today will bring an eye-opener! Better keep your eyes peeled!

 

[cheshire cat]

I don't care about that thread, I didn't make it. I continue to post to be the voice of people, who probably are not on here, that truly want the 35k version and that's all they need. We waited in line, put money down on a car we hadn't seen, and believe the price they gave. It's not our fault the company ****ed up the manufacturing process.

I post to remember it's not all about what percentage the GM is. We have supposedly 12 years until the environment begins its downward spiral. I would rather see more EVs on the road than higher GMs.....

Wish you lot would stop whining, I can' t buy one at any price, and mine was ordered BEFORE the reveal, starting to sound like the other spoilt brats " I had to wait three hours to pick mine up." Etc etc.

 

[MP3Mike]

You are applying your own common-sense understanding of what 'reimbursement' means, while in contract law it has specific meaning:

What is REIMBURSE? definition of REIMBURSE (Black's Law Dictionary)

"The primary meaning of this word is “to pay back.” Philadelphia Trust, etc., Co. v. Audenreid, 83 Pa. 264. It means to make return or restoration of an equivalent for something paid, expended, or lost; to indemnify, or make whole."

Did not Elon essentially "make return or restoration of an equivalent for something paid"? Tesla definitely paid something, and Elon is planning to indirectly make them whole. If the stock cost Tesla $20 million he wouldn't be making them whole. (I think the same thing would be true if he bought enough Model 3s such that the profit from them totaled $20 million.)

• Fifth, Elon and Tesla announced this $20m equity sale shortly after the settlement - if the SEC disapproved of it they could have and should have mentioned it in their letter to the judge. They chose not to, but wrote a long letter detailing why they think the settlement is in the public interest - in full knowledge of Tesla's and Elon's $20m equity sale plans.

• Finally, it's 99.9999999% certain that Tesla's and Elon's lawyers signed off on it, and it's 100% certain that SEC lawyers either knew or should have known that equity deals of any value are still possible according to the terms of the settlement.

Oh, so you think the SEC has suddenly started playing fair and being up front? While I think they are laying in wait to nail him again, as he is obviously trying to go around their agreement. I don't think they feel that they have any responsibility to warn him that something he is considering doing is going to get him in trouble.

If I'm wrong great, but given that what the SEC has done so far I have no faith that I am. I don't think you could find a jury that would say Elon wasn't trying to make Tesla whole by this act.

 

[Nocturnal]

Do you understand that on can *rightly* complain that Elon/Tesla should have *explicitly* said that a deposit can get you a reservation number but anyone willing to pay more than you will get priority over your reservation?

It isn't a problem to prioritize deliveries by purchase price per se. The issue is that anyone can legitimately feel betrayed when you're invited to buy a reservation for a $35K car and *then* learn that your place in the queue did not mean much because you only intend to spend $35K on the car.

I do actually. I understand being disappointed. I also believe that the events as they have happened do make sense.

What freaking idiot gambles with a mortgage on their house. That person should be ban from any investing at all. No sympothy at all. To make that point more clear. Again the stock market is for investing in a company you want to see succeed. Now, you are saying one takes a 10-30 year refi and buys a stock they are only going to hold for a few days, weeks or months? That person is not savvy enough in my opinion to buy stock. Most likely tho, they actually plan on holding the stock for several years not a month or two. I also assume when one goes to refi and the bank asks what the money will be used for the person is honest and says, “I am going to gamble it away on options in TSLA!” So much for them getting that loan approved.

Yeah, that would be a really bad idea. I suppose I could make an argument for taking out a HELOC and investing that money if you had the cash on reserve and wanted to leverage a little and use the mortgage tax deduction, but that's getting pretty wonky.

Personally my own investment in TSLA is far too risky by any conventional sense as it represents a major chunk of my savings. (1/5th maybe?) That said I have a career where I can recover from a major loss and I'm seeing some utility in just helping Tesla make it as a company due to ethical reasons. Technically owning any individual stock isn't smart.

 

[tivoboy]

w

.... I realize there is no sympathy for TSLA swing traders, but the fact is that a huge number of people were affected by those tweets.

I can't see people pushing all swing traders in front of the bus. As an example, buying at 245$ and selling at 365$, buying at 265$ then selling at $320, etc. etc. etc. These are all very nice swing trades. How could even a long have issue with that - other than that they aren't making the same gains on their simple hold. It can't be that they see the selling at an opportune price (or targeted, desired, required price - all signs of SOLID trading practices) as attempting to push the overall stock down. For a true swing trader there isn't enough volume per trader to make a hoot of a difference.

IF, on the other hand a "swing trader" runs the above process, then sells the stock SHORT at the highs, I can see where someone could try and make their argument against that type of trading. That's sadly - and happily, what makes a market. IF on the other hand, at the highs, I take a new position and buy downside PUTS. Someone else is on the other side of that trade and WANTS my premium. They get what they want, I get what I want and we then let the facts and the market decide. When the stocks inevitably falls, my PUTS go up (since everyone wants insurance when the neighbors house is burning) and THEN I sell. I'm still trading the swing, but with a different instrument. is THAT so bad too?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Did not Elon essentially "make return or restoration of an equivalent for something paid"? Tesla definitely paid something, and Elon is planning to indirectly make them whole. If the stock cost Tesla $20 million he wouldn't be making them whole. (I think the same thing would be true if he bought enough Model 3s such that the profit from them totaled $20 million.)

Taken to its logical end, that would mean that the settlement requires Tesla to close down entirely, as any profits from selling any products would go towards paying them back the $20 million.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The fact is that the stock hasn't done anything in nearly five years, while NASDAQ doubled.

Can we stop this nonsense? Yesterday, someone said the SP has been flat over the last 2 years, when it has in fact outperformed the market.

Today, you’re saying the SP hasn’t done anything in nearly five years, when it has in fact brought annualized returns of 7.5%. Those returns are disappointing, and well below Nasdaq as a whole, but they’re way ahead of inflation & well within historical norms for the stock market.

Arbitrary end points are arbitrary. Depending when you bought/sold within the last 5 years, you could have more than tripled your money or lost more than 50%. Going forward, you could easily 10x your money or lose 100% of it.

This is the Market Action thread— allegedly— so we all care about the stock price. But we should be arguing about what’s causing Market Action or will cause Market Action going forward, not complaining about what it’s done in the past.

 

[brian45011]

No, because if he just wanted to buy more stock he would buy it on the open market like he has done recently. Going through the hassle of having Tesla issuing new stock is entirely different.

Quit fretting.

SEC has other fish to fry. SEC made their point effectively with Elon/TSLA-- which was more to deter future, similar conduct by other registered corporations, than to punish Elon/TSLA or even come close to making whole anyone who may have lost money because of the August 7th tweets.

The SEC's raison d'etre is to maintain the integrity of capital markets (for all participants). The SEC will not react to Elon's share purchase any more than they did to his derisive tweet about the agency's initials.

 

[Drax7]

Here is another point of view.

In the long run we are all dead, enough with the rationalizations,
He simply sabotaged the ramp with his tweets

 

[avoigt]

Genius design....

People have not even started to understand what the 3 really is about. It may take years for the word and the industry to comprehend.

The secret tech behind the Tesla Model 3 | Autocar

 

[gringotuanis]

I do actually. I understand being disappointed. I also believe that the events as they have happened do make sense.



Yeah, that would be a really bad idea. I suppose I could make an argument for taking out a HELOC and investing that money if you had the cash on reserve and wanted to leverage a little and use the mortgage tax deduction, but that's getting pretty wonky.

Personally my own investment in TSLA is far too risky by any conventional sense as it represents a major chunk of my savings. (1/5th maybe?) That said I have a career where I can recover from a major loss and I'm seeing some utility in just helping Tesla make it as a company due to ethical reasons. Technically owning any individual stock isn't smart.

I wouldn't recommend the HELOC approach, though I did pull a HELOC to buy some Tesla options. It comes down to math. The margin interest rates to borrow from the broker are worse than bank HELOC rates. Also, you have no risk of the margin call so you can hold on for 30 years. In my case, the HELOC is only a fairly small percentage of my annual income...just using the house to secure a loan but it would have limited effect on paying the loan back even if Tesla tanked. Again, I wouldn't recommend it and I doubt I'll use the HELOC again for this purpose, but there are logical reasons an investor (or gambler) would do it.

 

[brian45011]

I'd laugh my ass so hard if it turns out Elon was literal about the lemur and he has a hidden passion for this wide-eyed animal!

Aka Grimes?

 

[gringotuanis]

Nope. Right ****ing here. Maybe you missed all my posts Been a shareholder since 2012 and I'm in it for the long term.

The only reason Tesla is doing so well with the high end version is because that is all they are selling. I don't need the premium interior or the long range battery, what I need is to get off of fossil fuels and the base model for which they promoted does that.

You will probably have that option by summer 2019 most likely. As far as the tax credit goes, I think ppl should lobby their senators to get that extended above the 200k vehicle limit. Disclosure long tsla via stock and call options.

 

[Brando]

On a more positive note, Ford announced they'll now produce 1350 GT supercars, to be delivered 2020 - 2022 timeframe, an increase from their initial production number of 1000.

Or about a half days Model 3 production. Kind of explains Ford's stock price.

I did read though that over 6500 people "raced" to sign up for the initial 1000.

Not actually "raced", you had to apply and be approved by Ford for the original (2017) 1000 cars.
Jay Leno Garage has a detailed view of Jay's purchase process for Ford GT to pick colors, stripes, interior... I enjoyed the show.

So does that mean Ford has made 1000 and now they will make 1350 more? do you know??
Swan Song for Ford GT? Dino Juice Sports Car? or Ford?

2018 Ford GT Full specs for 2018 Ford GT Coupe
Base price $450,000 (USD) (estimated) V6 3.5 litres
Power 647 hp @ 6,250 rpm (482 kW)
Torque 550 lb·ft @ 5,900 rpm (746 N·m)

2004-2006 cars sold for as much as a US$100,000 premium over MSRP of $139,995 (Ford increased the MSRP to $149,995 on July 1, 2005). Aren't dealers wonderful?
Ford GT - Wikipedia 2004-2006 and the 2017

With TESLA Roadster 2020 everyone pays the same price and you have to pay a deposit to get in line.
We don't know the options yet. You can jump to the first 1000 deliveries with Founder Edition $250,000, but we aren't sure of the options and perhaps we aren't sure of the possible final optioned up price, i.e. it might be more than $250k. I know which I'd buy.

 

[avoigt]

Please don't minimize investor concerns by labeling it as some sort of short-sighted rent-seeking. The fact is that the stock hasn't done anything in nearly five years, while NASDAQ doubled. Per your definition, with which I agree, that's long-term. This has nothing to do with FUD or living in fear; I'm stating facts. This habit of mislabeling any concerned bull as speculator/short/bear/FUD is not helpful.

I am surprised that you say that. Isn't a value Analysts someone who understands where value can be found? If that is true than Tesla is the best place to be because the SP and the value of the stock are far apart. IOW with continuing growth and improving financials its just a question of time that the true value will be reflected in the SP. That may go fast or slow but I do not care.

In the last 5 years the hidden value as I call it has grown every year. I actually love that.

 

[SpaceCash]

Not actually "raced", you had to apply and be approved by Ford for the original (2017) 1000 cars.
Jay Leno Garage has a detailed view of Jay's purchase process for Ford GT to pick colors, stripes, interior... I enjoyed the show.

So does that mean Ford has made 1000 and now they will make 1350 more? do you know??
Swan Song for Ford GT? Dino Juice Sports Car? or Ford?

2018 Ford GT Full specs for 2018 Ford GT Coupe
Base price $450,000 (USD) (estimated) V6 3.5 litres
Power 647 hp @ 6,250 rpm (482 kW)
Torque 550 lb·ft @ 5,900 rpm (746 N·m)

2004-2006 cars sold for as much as a US$100,000 premium over MSRP of $139,995 (Ford increased the MSRP to $149,995 on July 1, 2005). Aren't dealers wonderful?
Ford GT - Wikipedia 2004-2006 and the 2017

With TESLA Roadster 2020 everyone pays the same price and you have to pay a deposit to get in line.
We don't know the options yet. You can jump to the first 1000 deliveries with Founder Edition $250,000, but we aren't sure of the options and perhaps we aren't sure of the possible final optioned up price, i.e. it might be more than $250k. I know which I'd buy.

Nah the FE costs 250k period. You do have to pay it all up front, but that is the final price. $250K

 

[sub]

I bought another ~120 shares following the go private tweet at ~375 average. I would not have bought more shares at that price, I was using those funds to swing trade TSLA and slowly accumulate shares.

However, I took the RISK. It seems people want high risk returns without accepting the high risk losses. I have zero concerns that TSLA will be above ~375 eventually, the only thing I lost was not being able to accumulate more shares at a lower price. Nobody’s fault but my own.

Pointing fingers will never get you anywhere in life except most likely my ignore list.

Edit: FYI, heloc interest is not decuctible unless funds are used to invest in real estate. I use mine for that purpose.

 

[Nocturnal]

What freaking idiot gambles with a mortgage on their house. That person should be ban from any investing at all. No sympothy at all. To make that point more clear. Again the stock market is for investing in a company you want to see succeed. Now, you are saying one takes a 10-30 year refi and buys a stock they are only going to hold for a few days, weeks or months? That person is not savvy enough in my opinion to buy stock. Most likely tho, they actually plan on holding the stock for several years not a month or two. I also assume when one goes to refi and the bank asks what the money will be used for the person is honest and says, “I am going to gamble it away on options in TSLA!” So much for them getting that loan approved.

Not actually "raced", you had to apply and be approved by Ford for the original (2017) 1000 cars.
Jay Leno Garage has a detailed view of Jay's purchase process for Ford GT to pick colors, stripes, interior... I enjoyed the show.

So does that mean Ford has made 1000 and now they will make 1350 more? do you know??
Swan Song for Ford GT? Dino Juice Sports Car? or Ford?

2018 Ford GT Full specs for 2018 Ford GT Coupe
Base price $450,000 (USD) (estimated) V6 3.5 litres
Power 647 hp @ 6,250 rpm (482 kW)
Torque 550 lb·ft @ 5,900 rpm (746 N·m)

2004-2006 cars sold for as much as a US$100,000 premium over MSRP of $139,995 (Ford increased the MSRP to $149,995 on July 1, 2005). Aren't dealers wonderful?
Ford GT - Wikipedia 2004-2006 and the 2017

With TESLA Roadster 2020 everyone pays the same price and you have to pay a deposit to get in line.
We don't know the options yet. You can jump to the first 1000 deliveries with Founder Edition $250,000, but we aren't sure of the options and perhaps we aren't sure of the possible final optioned up price, i.e. it might be more than $250k. I know which I'd buy.

The crazy thing about the GT is that they are picking owners. They want people with celebrity status. My tiny violin only plays so much for a guy who can afford a GT and can't buy one, but still.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Nope.

TSLA Oct 14, 2016 $196.51
TSLA today $271.78
38.3% gain

S&P 500 Oct 14, 2016 $2132.98
S&P 500 today $2809.21
31.7% gain

First, NASDAQ is the index to use.

Second, dividend-adjusted prices must be used.

Third, the risk in Tesla and its insane volatility need to be incorporated.

I'll put it nicely... your analysis is incomplete.

 

[Krugerrand]

Did you have anything to say about the nearly five-year flat stock performance...

It’s irrelevant. Can’t be changed no matter how much it’s discussed or argued.

Feel free to exit the stock you’ve been unable to accurately predict for your clients. Otherwise, learn from the mistakes you’ve made and have a different conversation with present and future clients, so you don’t have to be so emotional when Elon tweets something you, the market, the media, or The Lemurs don’t like.