TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ludalicious]

The 50 Moving average is currently well under both the 200 and 100. Stochastics also shows the TSLA as being undersold. I do not see this stock moving above the 275 mark unless there is some form of news. We however do see news in the near future though. But until then I don't see the stock going anywhere but down based on that information.

 

[bdy0627]

I liquidated my entire portfolio and bought $100k of Tesla after the tweet. And as it went down to the lower $300s I put in another $100k... and then he canceled the go private. I’m just holding and hoping at this point

There are many versions of this story following the privatization tweets, particularly when Elon indicated it was all but certain, other than a shareholder vote. That got my attention. Elon has a history of not giving up when he goes after something. Those were things that very much factored in my decision to go all in and increase leverage when I would normally decrease it, at such high stock levels relative to the trading range. I got absolutely crushed and it was a costly and huge lesson learned. I have had a core TSLA investment for several years that is up modestly but I was very successfully swing trading TSLA until those tweets. I realize there is no sympathy for TSLA swing traders, but the fact is that a huge number of people were affected by those tweets.

 

[Nocturnal]

Nope. Right ****ing here. Maybe you missed all my posts Been a shareholder since 2012 and I'm in it for the long term.

The only reason Tesla is doing so well with the high end version is because that is all they are selling. I don't need the premium interior or the long range battery, what I need is to get off of fossil fuels and the base model for which they promoted does that.

Your stock would be worthless if they had done the 35k version first.

 

[ggies07]

Your stock would be worthless if they had done the 35k version first.

I'm not talking about it being first. I keep posting back at people who don't care about the 35k version or as I call them now, Bean Counters.

 

[oneday]

Nope. Right ****ing here. Maybe you missed all my posts Been a shareholder since 2012 and I'm in it for the long term.

I was wondering when you’d crawl out from your hiding place.

You could’ve at least linked to the fact you even have your very own thread: Late delivery of base Model 3 (out of Market Action)

Maybe the lemur is the $35k model 3? I do hope they deliver them to the first day reservation hold outs soon, because it is the right thing to do.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm not talking about it being first. I keep posting back at people who don't care about the 35k version or as I call them now, Bean Counters.

Fair. I do think the 35k version is important to the companies vision and future. The stock won't get to the valuation I'd like to see it at if they can't dip into the mass market.

I was wondering when you’d crawl out from your hiding place.

You could’ve at least linked to the fact you even have your very own thread: Late delivery of base Model 3 (out of Market Action)

Maybe the lemur is the $35k model 3? I do hope they deliver them to the first day reservation hold outs soon, because it is the right thing to do.

We would probably have leaks if that were the case.

 

[MikeQ]

Chanos is complaining that Tesla is only selling the $60k version of the Model 3. ' "I would remind you that that's the car that was supposed to be sold for $35,000." Chanos said.'

And, let me guess... this is... bad?

And actually you could order one for $49000. So if they are only selling $60k, that means people are choosing to pay above the $49 base price.

 

[ggies07]

I was wondering when you’d crawl out from your hiding place.

You could’ve at least linked to the fact you even have your very own thread: Late delivery of base Model 3 (out of Market Action)

Maybe the lemur is the $35k model 3? I do hope they deliver them to the first day reservation hold outs soon, because it is the right thing to do.

I don't care about that thread, I didn't make it. I continue to post to be the voice of people, who probably are not on here, that truly want the 35k version and that's all they need. We waited in line, put money down on a car we hadn't seen, and believe the price they gave. It's not our fault the company ****ed up the manufacturing process.

I post to remember it's not all about what percentage the GM is. We have supposedly 12 years until the environment begins its downward spiral. I would rather see more EVs on the road than higher GMs.....

 

[Boomer19]

There are many versions of this story following the privatization tweets, particularly when Elon indicated it was all but certain, other than a shareholder vote. That got my attention. Elon has a history of not giving up when he goes after something. Those were things that very much factored in my decision to go all in and increase leverage when I would normally decrease it, at such high stock levels relative to the trading range. I got absolutely crushed and it was a costly and huge lesson learned. I have had a core TSLA investment for several years that is up modestly but I was very successfully swing trading TSLA until those tweets. I realize there is no sympathy for TSLA swing traders, but the fact is that a huge number of people were affected by those tweets.

i hear you.

 

[replicant]

Your stock would be worthless if they had done the 35k version first.

Do you understand that on can *rightly* complain that Elon/Tesla should have *explicitly* said that a deposit can get you a reservation number but anyone willing to pay more than you will get priority over your reservation?

It isn't a problem to prioritize deliveries by purchase price per se. The issue is that anyone can legitimately feel betrayed when you're invited to buy a reservation for a $35K car and *then* learn that your place in the queue did not mean much because you only intend to spend $35K on the car.

 

[MikeQ]

I don't care about that thread, I didn't make it. I continue to post to be the voice of people, who probably are not on here, that truly want the 35k version and that's all they need. We waited in line, put money down on a car we hadn't seen, and believe the price they gave. It's not our fault the company ****ed up the manufacturing process.

I post to remember it's not all about what percentage the GM is.

If Tesla didn't prioritize the higher margin cars first, you'd never get a $35k version, ever.

 

[Tslynk67]

I agree. After looking at the chart for the Nasdaq, I was ready for a bloodbath when I then clicked on TSLA. Shorts must have used up quite a bit of their firepower on the earlier morning dip.

Plus shorting from here would be an unwise move ahead of potentially very good earnings... Here's hoping the general market has recovered before then!

 

[Unpilot]

There are many versions of this story following the privatization tweets, particularly when Elon indicated it was all but certain, other than a shareholder vote. That got my attention. Elon has a history of not giving up when he goes after something. Those were things that very much factored in my decision to go all in and increase leverage when I would normally decrease it, at such high stock levels relative to the trading range. I got absolutely crushed and it was a costly and huge lesson learned. I have had a core TSLA investment for several years that is up modestly but I was very successfully swing trading TSLA until those tweets. I realize there is no sympathy for TSLA swing traders, but the fact is that a huge number of people were affected by those tweets.

I do have sympathy for swing traders...that's not the point however. We all made a bet and so far that has not played out well for some. BUT were I do have a problem is with people who try and pin any loses they have had on anyone but them-self. (Not saying you have done that)

We have pages and pages of people upset with the stock movement relative to the short term. I get it...it hurts..but no one held a gun to anyone's head ..(as far as I know) so at the end of the day....hello Mirror.

 

[MP3Mike]

Or, option 3:
Elon saw that the stock price was very low relative to value and wanted to buy some stock. He asked and Tesla graciously accepted. The $20 million figure came from either 1. He’s heard that number a lot recently and it seems like a good amount or 2. He figures the stock is due to double and wanted to make his money back.

Barring something REALLY dumb on Elon’s part, good luck proving it isn’t #3.

No, because if he just wanted to buy more stock he would buy it on the open market like he has done recently. Going through the hassle of having Tesla issuing new stock is entirely different.

 

[brian45011]

Sorry, if it has already posted:

"Tesla and the Shanghai Planning and Land Resources Administration formally signed the “Land Transfer Contract”", and
"Currently, banks have signed a loan agreement with Tesla".

vincent on Twitter

Elon M$sk?

Any money down by TSLA?

 

[lklundin]

Isn't it weird how the only people who WE ever hear angrily shouting "WHERE'S THE $35K MODEL 3, TESLA???" are shorts?

On a (even) more serious note, I find it surprising that the financial world as a whole is not ecstatic about a company that has so much demand that they have the luxury of only selling their highest margin variants.

The quite bullish CEO of Ark Invest did to some limited extent point to this important fact when asked about a 30 k$ Model 3:
Cathie Wood on Tesla Yahoo October 13, 2018 - Streamable
(about 3 minutes in).

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No, because if he just wanted to buy more stock he would buy it on the open market like he has done recently. Going through the hassle of having Tesla issuing new stock is entirely different.

It’s also a totally valid way to purchase stock(if a bit more involved).

 

[ktrivedi70]

[I would rather see more EVs on the road than higher GMs.....[/QUOTE]

You won't see more EV's on the road without higher GMs. Simple economic reality.

 

[Sudre]

I think you forgot to add the group that was "I just liquidated my 401K to buy more TESLA stock - 420 baby!"
And, "I just took a 2nd mortgage and will buy more stock here (370$) going to 420 baby!"

Read back through this thread and you'll find those posts from members. I and many others said "do NOT take a 2nd mortgage to buy more TESLA stock", etc. And, I should add were summarily smacked down hard.

Sadly, THAT group is clearly in the LOST money category. Now, some might argue "well, you haven't lost money till you sold", but for the person who took out a 2nd, or HELOC (there was one of those as well) they are paying signifiant interest on those loans and holding a stock that is now hmm, 30% less than what it was? And possibly going lower.

Granted as well. Some, many, possibly all of those posts could have been simple hyperbole. We don't know, some I believe were not as they have re-engaged with their current state or misery.

What freaking idiot gambles with a mortgage on their house. That person should be ban from any investing at all. No sympothy at all. To make that point more clear. Again the stock market is for investing in a company you want to see succeed. Now, you are saying one takes a 10-30 year refi and buys a stock they are only going to hold for a few days, weeks or months? That person is not savvy enough in my opinion to buy stock. Most likely tho, they actually plan on holding the stock for several years not a month or two. I also assume when one goes to refi and the bank asks what the money will be used for the person is honest and says, “I am going to gamble it away on options in TSLA!” So much for them getting that loan approved.

 

[BenPrice]

Plus shorting from here would be an unwise move ahead of potentially very good earnings... Here's hoping the general market has recovered before then!

How so?

NFLX crushed earnings 2 days ago and it’s already back where it was (+/- 1%)

There will be no fear.

Tesla needs to enjoy sustained performance, needs to be bought, or needs a giant cash transaction to break this.