TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[omarsultan]

It seems that no FSD features will be introduced ahead of the chip. My expectation was that FSD would be introduced feature by feature.

I am not sure about that. It was, what a month ago, that he tweeted FSD features would start appearing in V9 and I assume he is aware of all if product roadmaps and dependencies. I would imagine we will still get a drip-drip of features even on the current HW and the "wow" features won't happen until HW 3.0. Remember, there is no regulatory framework in place yet to allow consumer-owned autonomous vehicle of any flavor on public roads (at least in the US), so its not like there is any big hurry.

I would not read too much into the tweet. I think too many people were checking the FSD box without reading the fine print and then creating a customer service headache when their new car wold not drive them to Starbuck.

That being said, I would expect most of the spin on this to be negative, seeing it as an admission that Tesla doesn't have the technical chops to pull of FSD.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Added some at $253.70

I already couldn’t resist at 255 and bought 10.

 

[RobStark]

I keep waiting for the breaking news about a few janitors who left the company back in August or something. Puzzling day.

Those would be crucial executive janitors.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla is now able to maintain production of close to 1,000 vehicles per day

 

[EVMeister]

Earnings are being announced when???

What makes you think anybody on here knows?

 

[humbaba]

The stupidity of said reporters really is baffling. Either that or they know they're lying. Either way, it's trash.

Well, aside from certain exceptions, I think its a little more nuanced than that. Product reporting has always been problematic due to inappropriate interactions between producers and reporters

I already couldn’t resist at 255 and bought 10.

I'm still holding out for <$250, but that's because there's not much left to shift in the account and there is risk to putting all into $TSLA....

 

[tivoboy]

I am not sure about that. It was, what a month ago, that he tweeted FSD features would start appearing in V9 and I assume he is aware of all if product roadmaps and dependencies. .

The timeline between V9 release and V10 release could be easily 18+ months. It was 24 months between V8 and V9. So, technically, in true Elon fashion, some FSD features could start rolling out in "V9". But that could be late 2019 or early 2020 and still support any tweet.

 

[AWDtsla]

.Tesla Short Seller Warns of `Massive' Supply-Chain Disruption
Bloomberg) -- Short seller Fahmi Quadir, who’s betting against Tesla Inc., said the carmaker faces risks to its supply chain because some vendors haven’t been getting paid and others have been taking liens out against the company.

Blah Blah

Tesla didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Its shares fell as much as 1.8 percent to $259.11 as of 11:13 a.m. in New York. The stock is down about 17 percent this year.

What has Tesla single sourced? They seem to have a hobby of vertically integrating everything when the supplier sucks.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Another point is the FSD. I think this has the market concerned. FSD is part of the valuation of the stock and removing it from the offering is a bit of a reason to pause. I expect there will be many questions at the earnings call about removing FSD. It does clean things up a bit by removing it as it seems a forward liability in some ways.

Isn't this just about the new Tesla board coming? It doesn't make sense to pay a chunk of money to Nvidia for a board that will be replaced. They can't charge for a board that doesn't exist yet. So best option is to leave it out and upgrade when it's ready.

 

[Leo9]

Tesla is now able to maintain production of close to 1,000 vehicles per day

Very nice to see progress, however we are still below 5000 per week.. Let's hope the Q4 average will be better than that.

 

[humbaba]

Isn't this just about the new Tesla board coming? It doesn't make sense to pay a chunk of money to Nvidia for a board that will be replaced. They can't charge for a board that doesn't exist yet. So best option is to leave it out and upgrade when it's ready.

well they have to put something in the car for AP to work. Right now that's the Nvidia based board. Sometime next year they'll be using their own chips. Even though HW3 isn't required for just AP, its simpler and cheaper to do that way.

In the meantime, vehicles will be equipped with the current (Nvidia) hardware.

 

[Matias]

Isn't this just about the new Tesla board coming? It doesn't make sense to pay a chunk of money to Nvidia for a board that will be replaced. They can't charge for a board that doesn't exist yet. So best option is to leave it out and upgrade when it's ready.

EAP needs that Nvidia board.

 

[EinSV]

Earnings are being announced when???

Not announced yet but ER will probably be November 7 (first Wednesday of the month is most common date for Tesla ERs). October 31 is another possibility but they probably would have announced the date by now.

 

[Zaxxon]

Anecdotal info on how the medium range M3 may affect Tesla's margins:

I have a friend (middle class income level) who reserved a Model 3 in-store on the first day of reservations way back when. She was waiting for the standard range pack to come out but just pulled the trigger on a lemur.

I'm not sure that tells us anything about margins, but it does give an anecdote that SR customers are being pulled forward at some rate into the MR. I also know someone who was waiting for SR who placed his MR order today. So now we've got two anecdotes, and what was that saying about the plural of anecdote being?

Anyone got a third so we can call it data?

 

[RobStark]

That's what I meant. Their capacity for LRD was greater than purchase demand. (whether due to underestimating AWD demand or overestimating LRD demand) I see lots of people poo pooing the price difference between MR and LR RWD, $4k is not insignificant to many car buyers, especially in the 35-40k range.

Among legacy OEMs it is conventional wisdom that if you lower the price $5k you increase the addressable market by 50%. In this general price class, obviously, not the case for hyper cars.

 

[humbaba]

I'm not sure that tells us anything about margins, but it does give an anecdote that SR customers are being pulled forward at some rate into the MR. I also know someone who was waiting for SR who placed his MR order today. So now we've got two anecdotes, and what was that saying about the plural of anecdote being?

Anyone got a third so we can call it data?

lets not get the nazis involved, shall we? Okay, lets!

admittedly not a third, so lets call it 2 1/2:
I haven't placed an order yet, but I'm quickly moving from "maybe next year" to "get this done"

anecdote + anecdote + anecdote === data, amirite?

 

[M3Rider]

Isn't this just about the new Tesla board coming? It doesn't make sense to pay a chunk of money to Nvidia for a board that will be replaced. They can't charge for a board that doesn't exist yet. So best option is to leave it out and upgrade when it's ready.

Nvidia will keep getting their money for the next ~6 months until the new chip comes out.
They just don't want to accumulate another 100k+ worth of "free" replacements.

 

[tivoboy]

Among legacy OEMs it is conventional wisdom that if you lower the price $5k you increase the addressable market by 50%. In this general price class, obviously, not the case for hyper cars.

Okay, I'm calling something on that. Can you show any link that would support that market argument? From what level? certainly for say an 85K porsche (or merc, or bmw or lexus, or heck honda), if I lower my price 5K, I'm not going to increase my addressable mkt by 50% from the market I might find at 85K.

Okay, let's look just domestic where the stratification of pricing is more concentrated somewhere between 30-40K. If I'm at 35K for a vehicle retail, you're saying if I just lower my price to 30K, my addressable market goes up 50%? Or will I SELL 50% more than i'm selling at 35K?

I could easily flip this argument around and say. What does removing the 7500$ tax credit do then? It's basically a total cost increase a to buyer (okay, lets' not get into that argument about just how many people are able to take advantage of the tax credit here) If I'm effectively going to be INCREASING the cost of the vehicle 7500$, so MORE than 5000$, does that mean I'm going to end up REDUCING my addressable market by ~50%?

Honestly, I'd love to see this metric supported by some real pricing models with sales or even just some good pricing modeling.

Interested.

 

[printf42]

Another Tesla logo formed in today's chart:

 

[oneday]

Do we think this guy would be good for Chairman?

CEO berates analysts on conference call: 'You are a disaster...they will have to commit suicide'

Anyone know about FactSet and how to find their consensus estimates?

The CNBC article above says that the ccompany in the article missed EPS forecasts by $.02 according to FactSet.

I tried crawling their site a little to find any kind of consensus estimates for Tesla but found nothing and I’m on mobile so that makes it tricky as well.