TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

You can sell at whatever but it’s a big assumption to just get shares back at 300.

Big question is how do we know on Thursday whether the above pattern will occur or the below ? People like me with some J19 calls have to make a decision on Thursday - sell and wait or roll it.

Historically, this is a safe bet but not sure if I want to bank on past performance leads to future performance.

When is Amazon going to be sub 1000 again? That was a huge wall.

 

[Singer3000]

I'm sure I've missed something but since the 01 August conference call, we've lived through:

Saudi PIF,
"Funding Secured", "Staying Public",
SEC to bar Musk as CEO, Musk and SEC settle, "Short Sellers Enrichment Commission",
a macro stock correction,
Production Hell over, Deliveries Hell begins, color option crisis,
v9 EAP, hardware v3 announcement, FSD off the menu,
Joe Rogan and the blunt, NY Times and "the tears", Marquees Brownlee and the smiles,
#dearmoon,
Teslaquilla,
LEMR ,
safest car ever,
million mile motor,
83,500 deliveries,
Left Goes Long.

Five double-digit daily moves, 660 million shares traded, a peak of 387 and a low of 247. We opened 01 Aug at 297.99, After Hours closed last night at 297.75.

Perhaps this quarter we should all just kick back with some Teslaquilla and Rogan's finest and trust that it will all be right in the end.

<EDIT: Shanghai! How did I forget that?>

 

[bdy0627]

Profitability isnt the big number I think the market will focus on tomorrow (although it will be good if it happens - which I think probably will)

More important numbers in my opinion:

1.) amount of Postive Cashflow which I’m hoping will be at least $500 million, but could be substantially higher given the amount of vehicles delivered in final month of the quiarter (which helps cashflow more than cars delivered earlier in the quarter).
2.) Model 3 Margin - will it meet guidance, and if it beats guidance, by how much?
3.) Q4 guidance (I’m presuming at least 60,000 model 3 will be the low end target - but maybe the upper limit is a bit more than expected)

I think those 3 numbers will be more market moving than whether or not they were slightly above or below break even in Q3. But then again I’m usually wrong with anything involving Stock Price movement predictions.

Totally agree that those are the keys in this ER. Given the shift in sentiment, what is the market now expecting in terms of positive cash flow? $300-500? It seems that a slight profit will be pretty much expected. I don't think many of us are expecting anything more than that. I think Q4 guidance should be very strong, with more substantial profits, gross margins, and similar or higher positive cash flow. Are these big surprises for the market now, after today? Or, with the move today and probable additional climb tomorrow, has the move already happened prior to the actual ER?

 

[bdy0627]

Big question is how do we know on Thursday whether the above pattern will occur or the below ? People like me with some J19 calls have to make a decision on Thursday - sell and wait or roll it.

If you have several calls, probably wise to take some profits while letting some ride. The all or nothing approach is one I have regretted more. Picture both scenarios - further squeeze after you sell your calls, or a substantial dip while holding your calls. Which would you prefer to be wrong about? Again, all or nothing doesn't work well for me, though maybe it does for others. I prefer to sell some and hold on to some. I can quite easily live with either outcome in that situation.

 

[RobStark]

The three superchargers nearest me are, iirc, 12, 16 and 20 positions. I have still had to wait for a free one ...

Those dastardly Norwegians!

Coming to Sweden to take all your Supercharger spots!

 

[ZachShahan]

Hmm, did they get your permission to use your charts? If not that's a copyright crime because they used them for a commercial purpose. Could be big money suing them for infringment.

They did not.
We do normally charge for commercial use of our images.

But am mostly happy that the important message is getting out there partially through our work.

 

[EVNow]

If you have several calls, probably wise to take some profits while letting some ride. The all or nothing approach is one I have regretted more. Picture both scenarios - further squeeze after you sell your calls, or a substantial dip while holding your calls. Which would you prefer to be wrong about? Again, all or nothing doesn't work well for me, though maybe it does for others. I prefer to sell some and hold on to some. I can quite easily live with either outcome in that situation.

I have accumulated the calls - all the way from a SP of 310 to 250

To an extent what I could do depends on the price on Thursday. If it is high enough (say ATH), I could take the profits and see what happens. I might be ok with lost opportunity to make more money.

If the SP falls big first thing in the morning, I'll have little choice but to roll forward (or sell and eat the loss).

But, if SP is slightly bullish/bearish/side ways i.e. it is not clear what it will do - it would be a difficult decision. I may have to sell some and wait on others.

 

[scaesare]

e-tron apparently goes up to 150KW onboard charger.

It almost assuredly does not have an onboard charger of that size.

DC Fast Charging bypasses the onboard charger completely.

 

[scaesare]

...mute point...

"moot"

 

[wipster]

It felt for awhile that Tesla was doing huge things there and then we never heard anything else about it. Has still been in the back of my mind.

I felt the same way, especially after the 2nd qtr conf call. But even if they are quietly changing the way things are done in our 51st state, I don't expect it to affect the SP much. But i for one will sure feel proud of the company, same as Elon following through on his promises about the Michigan water issues... that would be ironic, but great nonetheless.

 

[wipster]

"moot"

It just couldn't speak for itself

 

[Jayjs20]

I have accumulated the calls - all the way from a SP of 310 to 250

My man.

My 33 J20 400 call options are ready for tomorrow.

 

[Xpert]

I think this is prudent advice. Volatility is not going anywhere. We may hit $315 tomorrow night and then drop well below $300 again Thursday. Expectations for this earning's report have suddenly gone through the roof. Are they going to be that spectacular? I don't know. I think they will be solid. Remember, Q4 is supposed to be the real stunner. There will be some momentum for sure because of the intensity of this 180, but when we hit resistance, shorts will be piling on again with vengeance. Prudent to take some profits at some point to be able to take advantage of the shorts' shenanigans.

Or we may hit $315 tomorrow and squeeeeezed to $360 If ER knocks it out of the park, Or even higher with current 30M short shares getting caught in a huge 3 day pop. If Q3 numbers are good, People will believe stated Q4 numbers as we are nearly 1 month in. There are also so many other factors that could cause an explosive move (China G3 accelerated timeline means double revenue in less than 2-3years, europe G4, model Y, saudi/energy deals, FsD, you name it)

Let’s not forget there were folks willing to pay $420/share not too long ago, so in this sense we are still $120 undervalue. And 30M dumb shorts still in the game and expect tesla losing $ every car they sell. If ER changes this perception then expect a hard squeeze. Otherwise Q4.

 

[ZachShahan]

Doesn't Smeagol only have puts now? There isn't any bailing to do I guess, when his puts go to zero, that's the end.

Oh, I didn't realize that.

 

[ZachShahan]

We may find out tomorrow... why don't you ask him Zach?

It wasn't on our list. And if we do get invited again, am supposed to ask based on writer and reader preferences. Vote on options here: What Would You Ask Elon Musk & Tesla On The Q3 Earnings Call? | CleanTechnica

But this seems like a good one to somehow slip in. I'm quite curious about this.

 

[Dwdnjck]

So, when will the SEC sue Andrew Left for manipulating TSLA and harming the shorts ?
His performance today has moved the market much more than Elon's tweet in August!

ps: and I bet he will cash out on the gains (pump & dump) pretty soon, unlike Elon

Maybe Left can sue himself.

 

[MP3Mike]

Oh, I didn't realize that.

I don't know if that is true anymore. On June 22nd he said "I just reshorted some $TSLA common here in the $354s, in addition to our puts..." But it does seem that he is primarily in January 2020 puts. So it will be a while before he gets wiped out.

 

[NikeWings]

Ummmm looks like Deepak exercised a few options today for a nice chunk of change. His exercise price was covered by todays increase to SP. Saweet. But why wouldn't he wait? Like until tomorrow?

 

[NikeWings]

Maybe Left can sue himself.

Would that make him right?

 

[MP3Mike]

Ummmm looks like Deepak exercised a few options today for a nice chunk of change. His exercise price was covered by todays increase to SP. Saweet. But why wouldn't he wait? Like until tomorrow?

Since it is just an acquire why would it matter if he did it yesterday, today, or tomorrow? He is paying the same and they are worth the same. Right?