TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[S3XY]

Good news. Antoon has lost the bow tie.

Caption contest: my entry

Two bums sitting on a log by the river, discussing the demise of Tesla

Notice that they never pan out far enough for us to see the barrel that his suspenders are holding up.

 

[Boomer19]

Subpoena from SEC only, not DOJ.

From 10-Q (I presume is the source)

yes, this is recycled

 

[Driver Dave]

US regulators subpoenaed Tesla production data, company says

November 2, 2018 at 7:48 AM CDT - Updated November 2 at 7:48 AM

DETROIT (AP) — U.S. securities investigators have subpoenaed information from Tesla about production forecasts for the Model 3 electric car that were made last year, the company acknowledged in a regulatory filing Friday.

The disclosure in Tesla's quarterly financial report also says the Securities and Exchange Commission subpoena covered other public statements made about Model 3 production.

The filing also says Tesla is cooperating with a Justice Department request for information about production.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the FBI is doing a criminal investigation into whether Tesla misled investors by overstating Model 3 production forecasts.

Tesla Inc. says in the filing that to its knowledge, no government agency in an ongoing investigation has determined that it did anything wrong.

A company spokesman wouldn't comment beyond the filing.

They are running out of bad news to get clicks with so they have to re-mine old news.

Pretty soon there will be:

Model 3 - will Tesla ever be able to make it? Click here to find out!

 

[Artful Dodger]

appl dragging us down?

Nasdaq 100 Futures - Dec 18

7,044.25 -33.50 (-0.4%)

09:22:50 - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD

 

[shootformoon]

Tesla DIRECTOR - Amory Lovins
Book: Reinventing Fire

Really worth watching - intro 2:40 and talks begins 2:45

So is tsla considering carbon fiber for the next generation? What is hurdles to overcome at this stage?

 

[Todd Burch]

The 10-Q shows that they have definitely abandoned any plan for ramping to 10,000/week at Fremont next year, due to planning 3000/week in China. The media is so far reporting this as a positive (production in China), but there might start to be some negative news if they realise that this is actually a reduction in US production plans.

Tesla only ever said they'd make 10k/week. Doing some of that in a huge local market like China to avoid logistics costs and tariffs can't possibly be seen as a negative. At least, not to any rational person.

 

[GaryW]

Hmm, good point - I did a volume comparison, but a mass comparison would be better.

I looked at 2 shippers web sites. They had different weight limits for 20’ Containers.

Dry containers 20' and 40' for general purposes | DSV
Straight 25,000 kilos

Road Weight Limitations
Lowest, 41,000 lbs or ~18,000 kilos

I think 3000 KWh is an upper estimate.

 

[humbaba]

September (1st month in previous quarter)

Excellent post. But you might want to correct this to avoid reader confusion

 

[Todd Burch]

Pay no attention to the morning head-fake the market will give TSLA...

 

[MartinAustin]

It's Friday. On weekends people gather and talk about "stuff", like their amazing new Model 3, or their Tesla stock that is up 33% in one week and is gonna rocket in 100 days. If I was a short, weekends would make me nervous.

Thanksgiving in the USA is coming up. THAT is going to be major for the Tesla marketing effort. There will be many, many Model 3's travelling long distances to family reunions and lots of discussion about how good it is, and lots of demos and test drives. The kind of marketing Audi, Ford, BMW, Chevy, Jaguar, Mercedes and all of the rest of them can't buy - positive word of mouth.

I believe today will continue the TSLA rally. Up another percent or two into the weekend.

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like there are lots of TSLA buyers to soak up any red....

 

[mikevbf]

I've mentioned before that my dream vehicle is one that goes to extremes on both efficiency and functionality simultaneously. So a very high-clearance, beat-it-up vehicle that doesn't need to be super-roomy inside, but has a long cargo area in the rear that when shrouded doubles as the rear taper, in order to get an extremely low drag coefficient. Extreme bonus points if the height of the rear shroud can be adjusted (with sliding walls) so you can choose between interior room (potentially with fold-up seats) or a super-low drag coefficient, based on your needs at the time.

He has said in the past it would be a 6 seater. Your last suggestion sounds interesting, but probably over complicated. Still nice to dream...

 

[Nocturnal]

Musk specifically calling it a midsize SUV is interesting - midsize SUV means things like the Explorer, Pilot, and Highlander are the non-luxury competition, and those are solidly three-row. (Midsize luxury SUVs are often two-row though.)

I see mid-size as comprising smaller 3 rows and larger 2 rows. I actually owned a highlander before the 3. Our other options were Explorer, Edge, Enclave, and Forerunner. Even though I loved my 3 series I didn't bother looking at the BMW SUVs.

He has said in the past it would a 6 seater. Your last suggestion sounds interesting, but probably over complicated. Still nice to dream...

Agreed. A vast majority of people care nothing about ruggedness, they just want something big that isn't a minivan.

 

[Fact Checking]

The 10-Q shows that they have definitely abandoned any plan for ramping to 10,000/week at Fremont next year, due to planning 3000/week in China. The media is so far reporting this as a positive (production in China), but there might start to be some negative news if they realise that this is actually a reduction in US production plans.

I don't think that's accurate - this is from their 10-Q:

"We are continuing to work to increase Model 3 production to approximately 10,000 units per week in the most optimal manner from both a timing and capital expenditures perspective. At the Fremont Factory, we expect to continue to increase our Model 3 production rate to approximately 7,000 units per week with only limited additional capital expenditures, and we believe we can increase that rate to beyond 7,000 units per week with incremental capital expenditures. In China, which is the largest market for electric vehicles in the world, our Model S and Model X sales have been, and will likely continue to be, negatively impacted by recently-increased tariffs imposed by the Chinese government on U.S.-manufactured vehicles. We are seeking to alleviate the impact of such tariffs for Model 3 by developing plans to start producing approximately 3,000 Model 3 vehicles per week in Shanghai, China in the initial phase of our Gigafactory 3, which will have progressively increased levels of localization through local sourcing and manufacturing. However, the timeframe for that is subject to a number of uncertainties, including regulatory approval, supply chain constraints, and the pace of bringing the factory online. Ultimately, achieving increased Model 3 production cost-effectively will require that we timely address any additional bottlenecks that may arise as we continue to ramp, achieve reduced labor hours and increase supplier capacity."​

I believe they'll start making Model 3's in Shanghai next year already - and they might be able to ramp up Fremont to more than 7,000/week with "minimal capex".

They already made 5,300 in a week at the end of Q3, most of which were AWD, which are significantly more complex to make than RWD versions. It's only another 1,700/week on top of that to reach 7,000 - so I believe their 7,000/week target is conservative.

 

[MP3Mike]

I believe they'll start making Model 3's in Shanghai next year already - and they might be able to ramp up Fremont to more than 7,000/week with "minimal capex".

Actually it says "incremental capital expenditures" not "minimal capex".

Even getting to 7k/week doesn't say "minimal" it says "only limited additional capital expenditures".

 

[ZachF]

Tree fiddy today?

 

[mikevbf]

I don't think that's accurate - this is from their 10-Q:

"We are continuing to work to increase Model 3 production to approximately 10,000 units per week in the most optimal manner from both a timing and capital expenditures perspective. At the Fremont Factory, we expect to continue to increase our Model 3 production rate to approximately 7,000 units per week with only limited additional capital expenditures, and we believe we can increase that rate to beyond 7,000 units per week with incremental capital expenditures. In China, which is the largest market for electric vehicles in the world, our Model S and Model X sales have been, and will likely continue to be, negatively impacted by recently-increased tariffs imposed by the Chinese government on U.S.-manufactured vehicles. We are seeking to alleviate the impact of such tariffs for Model 3 by developing plans to start producing approximately 3,000 Model 3 vehicles per week in Shanghai, China in the initial phase of our Gigafactory 3, which will have progressively increased levels of localization through local sourcing and manufacturing. However, the timeframe for that is subject to a number of uncertainties, including regulatory approval, supply chain constraints, and the pace of bringing the factory online. Ultimately, achieving increased Model 3 production cost-effectively will require that we timely address any additional bottlenecks that may arise as we continue to ramp, achieve reduced labor hours and increase supplier capacity."​

I believe they'll start making Model 3's in Shanghai next year already - and they might be able to ramp up Fremont to more than 7,000/week with "minimal capex".

They already made 5,300 in a week at the end of Q3, most of which were AWD, which are significantly more complex to make than RWD versions. It's only another 1,700/week on top of that to reach 7,000 - so I believe their 7,000/week target is conservative.

Thanks for fact checking that one. I was just about to ask him what exact quote he drew his conclusions from.

 

[sundaymorning]

A lot of shorts must be quite nervous right now with the jobs reporting beating expectations and the SP rising slowly. If this rise is sustainable and Q4 heats up to be like Q3, then I think a squeeze is in the cards.

 

[ZsoZso]

What just happened ? TSLA takes off like BFR ?

 

[TradingInvest]

Next few years Tesla's revenue will rise significantly. Likely to reach $60B in 3~4 years. That coupled with limited spending will translate to huge free cashflow.