TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

I don't see anywhere that the cause for the Syrian refugee crisis is drought. Only war.

Exactly. The news reports the ultimate cause, not the penultimate cause.

It's like the problems in Haiti are reported as political. Look at Haiti v Dominican Republic on Google Earth and it's obvious the problem is environmental. Ditto the war in Rwanda where starving people took up arms. Desperate people do desperate things, that's a given.

 

[KarenRei]

Perhaps this is a controversial opinion here, but...

Rivian = hypothetical "competition" = ontopic.
Immigration and refugees = offtopic and divisive.

Not that I'm saying that the topic should turn to the former, but compared to the latter...

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Disagree with the premise that there's some sort of "unusual" rate of paint defects.

Based on ... what data?

Is your position that the reports regarding paint are predominately fabricated? That they're real but in the realm of what's to be expected? If so, do you have any sense of the prevalence for other OEMs?

 

[AudubonB]

TAKE IT TO "Political", people.

If Moderators have to start doing that for you, bans also will start. Have to justify Mods' existence somehow, you know.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Based on ... what data?

Is your position that the reports regarding paint are predominately fabricated? That they're real but in the realm of what's to be expected? If so, do you have any sense of the prevalence for other OEMs?

You made the affirmative claim(that there are an abnormally large number of paint defects), it’s up to you to provide data. Karen isn’t required to prove that there aren’t.

 

[RobStark]

So what, Tesla's cost per kWh will stagnate as they ramp production for the next 3 years while LG catches up? The 20% figure came from UBS and it was in comparison with LG.

Or Tesla Model X will have a base 105 kWh battery for 2021 without a price increase while keeping margins. Rivian isn't promising 30% gross margins either.

Not sure about the cost advantage of cheaper labor per car. Could be significant, but maybe not. Also depends on level of automation vs. manual labor.

Model S and Model X is not very automated. Land is much cheaper in the American Midwest than the San Jose Bay Area. So are white collar salaries in addition to blue collar salaries.

As for not being that vertically integrated, again, could be an advantage, but not necessarily. If they build their car from standard parts they can take advantage of the supplier's low prices. But in reality, how many common parts would they have with other customers of these suppliers? Hard to tell. That model works well for companies who already produce millions of cars and have common parts among their own models. So VW may get a good price as the same part goes into a Skoda, a Seat, a VW and an Audi so they order 5 million of the thing. But It would be unlikely Mercedes would get a discount because it needs the same part VW uses.

A lot of parts can be ordered from the parts bin, especially those not seen. Tesla used to buy off the shelf Mercedes switchgear, stalks, and steering wheel from Mercedes supplier.

Rivian may not need to be on the bleeding edge of everything.

So does this all add up to 30k of price advantage to a 2021 Model X?

A) Rivian will save about $3k per truck going with standard doors instead FWD.

B) IMO we will see a much better Model X by 2021.

C) Again, Rivian may not be targeting 30% gross margins. At least not for Gen 1. Without major improvements Model X may have gross margins significantly above 30%.

 

[hacer]

Right, and I believe the second-tier cities are great locations -- but Lordstown is NO Kansas City.

KC is a 2-million-person metro area -- roughly the same size as Pittsburgh. And it's honestly pretty nice. Pittsburgh would be a fine location, just like Buffalo is a fine location, and KC would be fine too....

Buffalo is not a major city. That part of New York is so depressing that it has among the highest rate of drug overdose in the whole state because when you realize that you're stuck living in Buffalo death seems like an attractive alternative.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Based on ... what data?

Is your position that the reports regarding paint are predominately fabricated? That they're real but in the realm of what's to be expected? If so, do you have any sense of the prevalence for other OEMs?

I'll be the class dummy. What reports? Links please.

 

[Krugerrand]

Uglier in real life. But good luck to them.

 

[RobStark]

Rob Stark said:
"We are talking battery prices 2-3 years from now. LG Chem is behind Tesla/Panasonic but I doubt massively so."

Correct me if I'm wrong. If LG were to catch up and are able to produce cells as cheaply as Tesla, that does not mean that any other car maker will be able to produce battery packs as cheaply as Tesla. Tesla maintain the advantage of an integrated facility, transporting cells to pack making on conveyor, versus the competition having to package, ship and unpackage cells, prior to pack making. That has to be at least a 10% cost advantage right there.

If Rivian is making 50k vehicles per year in 2022 and growing with an average pack size of 140 kWh who says LG Chem doesn't build a GF in Normal, IL and not 240 miles away?

LG Chem is building a 70 GWh factory in Poland to service German car companies.

 

[RobStark]

Uglier in real life. But good luck to them.

Prototype.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

You made the affirmative claim(that there are an abnormally large number of paint defects), it’s up to you to provide data. Karen isn’t required to prove that there aren’t.

I actually did not. I said that there are many *reports* of paint issues and posed the question if anyone was concerned about it. I have not looked into any in detail, nor do I have any automotive paint expertise, thus why I posted to get others opinions ...

I'll be the class dummy. What reports? Links please.

There are many on Twitter, Reddit, TMC, etc. Here are a few from a quick search on Reddit:

(Model 3 Checklist Author) I feel guilty when a Model 3 delivery is refused for small or negligible issues. : teslamotors
Absolutely love my @Tesla Model 3. I hope @elonmusk can fix the soft paint issues. Lots of chips after only 4,600 miles : teslamotors
Love my P3D+ but need advice on some paint issues. : teslamotors
I didn't believe it before, but dang....So many paint defects. The fit and finish issue is real with the Model 3. : teslamotors
[Discussion] Shop says if I have Tesla fix the delivery paint defect I found I can't get a cermamic coat for 3 months? : teslamotors
Tesla Model 3 - Paint Defects from Factory - OCDetailing Video : teslamotors

Note that many of the posts have commenters chiming in w/ similar issues. In the top one, the person who created the delivery checklist remarks that 1/6 of the posts on refusing delivery have to do w/ paint (and that he feels guilty when people do that for minor paint issues).

Also, here is a link to a search for "paint" on the FB M3OC page.

 

[Gavyne]

Not sure why people are arguing Tesla vs Rivian? You guys got it all wrong. When Rivian launches, Tesla will have their upgraded models to 1 up the competition. There's no doubt about that, Tesla isn't just sitting back watching competition come out with impressive specs while doing nothing. But the real story here is that it won't be Tesla vs Rivian. It's going to be Tesla + Rivian vs legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Toyota, etc..

There's plenty of room for more quality EV's in the EV market space. Rivian is really the first BEV revealed other than Tesla where I feel they've got nice design appeal as well as impressive specs. All the others, like Mercedes EQC, Jag I-PACE, Kona, etc.. have outdated specs and questionable design choices. So if Rivian can come out and do it right, build EV's that people will like, with impressive specs and range, then more powers to them. That's what we need more of, BEV's that impress.

The media wants you to focus on "Tesla killers", but it'll really be Tesla and Rivian killing legacy automakers if they don't catch up. I'm looking at you GM & Ford, you can't hide behind internal combustion engine trucks and SUV's forever.

 

[ggr]

I don't agree that there are refugees because of climate change. Yet.

Most are fleeing a drug war (caused by the US) and a Middle East war (caused by the US). Both wars are supported by both parties.

It's pretty easy to conclude that all refugees from Syria are primarily refugees from climate change. It was an extended drought that caused the rebellion that caused the Assad regime to crack down that caused...

Researchers Link Syrian Conflict to a Drought Made Worse by Climate Change
Of course it gets hedged with "we can't say for certain that this particular drought was caused by climate change", but environmental issues have caused refugee problems many times before, including in the US in the "dust bowl" era.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I actually did not. I said that there are many *reports* of paint issues and posed the question if anyone was concerned about it. I have not looked into any in detail, nor do I have any automotive paint expertise, thus why I posted to get others opinions ...


There are many on Twitter, Reddit, TMC, etc. Here are a few from a quick search on Reddit:

(Model 3 Checklist Author) I feel guilty when a Model 3 delivery is refused for small or negligible issues. : teslamotors
Absolutely love my @Tesla Model 3. I hope @elonmusk can fix the soft paint issues. Lots of chips after only 4,600 miles : teslamotors
Love my P3D+ but need advice on some paint issues. : teslamotors
I didn't believe it before, but dang....So many paint defects. The fit and finish issue is real with the Model 3. : teslamotors
[Discussion] Shop says if I have Tesla fix the delivery paint defect I found I can't get a cermamic coat for 3 months? : teslamotors
Tesla Model 3 - Paint Defects from Factory - OCDetailing Video : teslamotors

Note that many of the posts have commenters chiming in w/ similar issues. In the top one, the person who created the delivery checklist remarks that 1/6 of the posts on refusing delivery have to do w/ paint (and that he feels guilty when people do that for minor paint issues).

Also, here is a link to a search for "paint" on the FB M3OC page.

Looks like there's a ready market for people with reddit karma points.

[Hiring] Content Creator Required With 25,000+ Reddit Karma (Online) : HireaWriter

I've seen trolls here and on disqus I've blocked over 100. Seems likely these are paid for posts mingled with a few hypercritics. It's war out there.

 

[ggr]

What he said... and same comes from my gut feel - solely because Tesla is holding through all this crap. Amazing stiction I call it.

Earlier I wrote how we closed a bit higher today (despite...). Then I took it back. But look at the TSLA graph of today. Why is there so much green on TD Ameritrade chart I wonder? Sure looks up right?

View attachment 355933

The dark line is, for whatever reason, in the wrong place. They got yesterday's closing price wrong.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Rivian really needs to make a deal with Tesla to use its superchargers. Charging network will be a dealbreaker for a lot of people.

 

[humbaba]

Not sure why people are arguing Tesla vs Rivian? You guys got it all wrong. When Rivian launches, Tesla will have their upgraded models to 1 up the competition. There's no doubt about that, Tesla isn't just sitting back watching competition come out with impressive specs while doing nothing. But the real story here is that it won't be Tesla vs Rivian. It's going to be Tesla + Rivian vs legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Toyota, etc..

There's plenty of room for more quality EV's in the EV market space. Rivian is really the first BEV revealed other than Tesla where I feel they've got nice design appeal as well as impressive specs. All the others, like Mercedes EQC, Jag I-PACE, Kona, etc.. have outdated specs and questionable design choices. So if Rivian can come out and do it right, build EV's that people will like, with impressive specs and range, then more powers to them. That's what we need more of, BEV's that impress.

The media wants you to focus on "Tesla killers", but it'll really be Tesla and Rivian killing legacy automakers if they don't catch up. I'm looking at you GM & Ford, you can't hide behind internal combustion engine trucks and SUV's forever.

I'm certainly in favor of any good EV, but I have my doubts about ability to execute, whether that be Rivian or GM.

But from a Tesla vs Rivian spec perspective, something that I think is getting lost here is that Rivian is talking about to 105 to 180 kWh battery packs in 2 to 4 years yielding up to 400 miles or so of range. By then the new Roadster should be in production with its 600 miles of range. And 1.9s 0-60mph time. In all honesty the specs really aren't that amazing for an EV targeting production 2 to 4 years down the road, its just Tesla-like rather than Audi- or GM- or Mercedes-like.

I'd wager part of Rivian's business plan is to establish themselves as the EV truck maker before Tesla gets around to it. And if they do, more power to them. But they'll have to contend with a rival Tesla truck. Sure, there's room for Rivian and Tesla (and others...) but Rivian is clearly staking out their position as the premier truck. Which has been Tesla's tactic for each vehicle market they've gone after. So the companies will be rivals. Which I think is a good thing.

If Rivian were a public company I'd certainly consider buying stock, but I prefer holding Tesla shares. Thanks to the shorts my average price isn't too bad and I think the stock is still undervalued. Looking forward to the slow but steady climb in stock price as more shorts abandon ship and the media starts to remove their blinders.

 

[SpaceCash]

Prototype.

Yikes.

To be fair though, prototypes USUALLY look better than the final product.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Prototype.

Wow I’ve never seen that. It is...unfortunate.