TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[hobbes]

I can't find this anywhere else, so can't verify.

Tesla readies second US dollar auto ABS deal



The "rated by Moody's" interests me. Does that mean it's possible Tesla gets an upgraded Moody's rating very soon?

On Bloomberg, too:

Tesla Plans $837 Million Auto Lease Bond

 

[EVNow]

Picked up a couple 12/14 400c right at close -- we'll see if the margin call thesis holds.

EDIT: Also, these lotto tickets were paid for with swing trades from today's action. I love playing with house money.

If you paid about 0.60 for them - tomorrow morning they'd open at about 0.30, if the SP is the same, since theta is about 0.3. SP would need to move by about $8 for break even. Good luck.

ps : I actually did the opposite, sold J'19 calls when SP was around 364, hoping to buy back today. Will do so tomorrow if & when SP falls below 364.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Q4 cash balance now looking on track for $4bn. I'm surprised Tesla has taken so long to come back to the ABS market given the size of their vehicle lease assets ($2.2bn). I expect this cash will be put towards offering model 3 lease options in the US in Q1.

ABS are rated separately from the corporate rating, but I agree this could potentially also come with a Moodys update at Tesla corporate level.

I've heard that most of that $2.2b can't be securitised as it's linked to RV guarantees and other loan documentation quirks that make it difficult. Earlier comments in Feb this year went into much more detail but i have forgotten the particulars.

 

[Carl Raymond]

well of course we don't KNOW anything, but $365 is the highest closing SP since Sep 2017. It's unlikely any short positions are still open from that period.

What we don't know is the aggregate margin remaining on the pool of open short interest.

What we do know is that at least some of them will be triggered with the new high close today. This is why its called the "mini-sqeeze".

I'll watch the After-hours session for a hint. Compare to Thursday's A/H action.

Here's the numbers for close price:

Dec 10: 365.15
Dec 6: 363.06
Dec 4: 359.70

So the size of the net that trapped the unwary on Dec 7 was the difference between the last two numbers, or 3.36.
The size of the net that traps the unwary tomorrow morning is the difference between the first two numbers, or 2.09.

 

[Rarity]

Tesla's market cap has passed General Electric's. Nikola Tesla would be proud...

 

[SW2Fiddler]

OT


Some folks 100% need a truck, some 0% need a truck.


View attachment 359816

We don't need no stinking trucks!
It's After Hours. Y'all now finally get to meet my SW2 that put the SW2 in SW2Fiddler:

Did this twice, once from the north, once from the south, to outfit my backyard aquaponics setup.

 

[EVNow]

Q4 cash balance now looking on track for $4bn. I'm surprised Tesla has taken so long to come back to the ABS market given the size of their vehicle lease assets ($2.2bn). I expect this cash will be put towards offering model 3 lease options in the US in Q1.

Absolutely not - they shouldn't use the money to lease more cars. They should only lease cars through finance companies that can raise money easily. Tesla should concentrate on core business.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Absolutely not - they shouldn't use the money to lease more cars. They should only lease cars through finance companies that can raise money easily. Tesla should concentrate on core business.

Tesla can raise ABS just as easily as a finance company, it's non recourse debt so it doesn't handicap their funding ability at corporate level. Now Tesla and EVs are established in the ABS market, i expect a very high % of lease sales to be funded by ABS, so it shouldn't consume significant cash on net.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Practice makes perfect! Keep working on $370 now.

Just 370? You need be a little bit greedier. How about 385 next week or so, and hits 400 by the end of the year? Only if Macro cooperate?

 

[Curt Renz]

Today:

-3.4% F
-0.8% GM
-0.1% FCAU
+2.0% TSLA

 

[Anstandswauwau]

TSLA technicals are looking phenomenal: Buy- and Strong Buy-signals across the board. Breaking resistances at $373.4 (+2.2%) and $378.5 (+3.66%) is key to get and eventually surpass ATH.

Macros, however, don't look too hot right now, but they do have quite a bit of potential upside (~2.3 – 6.2%). So if macros overperform and/or EM drops a well-timed email (EU reservation numbers), you'd better buckle up!

 

[gene]

Last quarter Supercharger progress slowed way down. I am thinking to have helped make for a profitable 3rd quarter. At this time Supercharger progress is rapid again. Maybe this means nothing, but maybe it means there is enough profit Q4 to carry on with Superchargers and still present a fabulous earnings report.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

 

[M3Rider]

Just 370? You need be a little bit greedier. How about 385 next week or so, and hits 400 by the end of the year? Only if Macro cooperate?

Well, personally I don't count on big moves in the near future, unless macros move.
I hope that delivery numbers will be taken more seriously in Jan than in Q3, since more number crunchers, hopefully, will be looking at them this time around.
So, hopefully, if the numbers are what we think, then SP should be rising into Feb ER.

 

[M3Rider]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

I do a little bit of swing trading sometimes. Prob. .0001% of what is the average here.
If SP falls to where I feel it's unjust, I buy some extra shares on margin and sell a few days later.
This helps me pay margin interest and does not risk my own shares.

 

[defc0n]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

Both

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

... then SP should be rising into Feb ER.

Let’s make it a late January ER instead

 

[kyzhk]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

I have a lot of long positions (I'm thinking of converting some to long term DITM leaps), and some positions for swing trading. Ultimate goal is to profit from the swings, and then add more TSLA long positions

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

self-contradictory question. I have long-term shares, because I believe in the mission. I also have separate trading shares, because it's a volatile stock. I do not mix the two funds, because you'll run the risk of losing your long-term holdings (had that happen 5 years ago and vowed to never let it happen again). And I'm sure a number of the early investors feel the same.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Same as other folks here. I'm invested in Tesla for the long term because I believe in their mission, their product, and their chances of success; I day trade TSLA to make money (to acquire more stock, and to hopefully finance a Tesla or two one day.)