TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

Time to look into the sentiment of the German Media:

Its likely one of the most positive reporting days I have seen ever. Many positives and just only a very few negatives at the todays snapshot. What I look at is not just German media but also what they write and copy from US and other coverage but all in German language.

Here are the main positive groups:

• Dudenhöfer (German expert and influencer) stating the 3 will outpace all EVs in deliveries in 2019 and no competitor expected before 2020. That did make a lot of headlines and includes effects like company car taxes cuts (800 k sold p.a.). Gas car registrations go down.Teslas 3 best selling EV car globally in 2018.

• Stock Market, Tesla best performing auto stock in 2018 and technicals and charts look very positive for a ATH and to move above soon. Technical strength and only stock that moves up in a very negative sentiment of investors.

On the negative side you find what you read mainly in the US as well. The 60 minutes interview, Elon Musk driving without hands on the wheel, VW is coming with the ID driving 550km for €30k and eating Teslas lunch, Audi and Porsche charging 100km range in 3 minutes making Tesla look weak .... a.o.

 

[hobbes]

Could be a number of reasons:

• Germany is the largest expected market for the Model 3 (larger than Norway I think), and they'd want to first measure demand in other EU markets, to calibrate:
  • pricing,
  • mix of Performance vs. Long Range,
  • delivery estimates.
• Germany has a new, very generous EV incentive starting on January 1, affecting about 800,000 corporate car purchases per year. I don't know the exact tax rules but maybe there is a peak of such sales in January due to the financial year of many corporations starting on January 1, and thus Tesla wants to shift some of the demand to those corporate customers.

They can probably meet whatever they promise to 1,000 Belgian reservation holders - but if they misjudge demand for 20,000 German customers and they give them a delivery estimate they'll miss by 2 months (the second European batch will be made in April and delivered in May at the earliest) there's going to be a lot of (justified) complaints exactly when Tesla wants lots of happy early customers the most.

I'd be surprised if configurator didn't open in the next 2-4 days - if it doesn't then there's probably some other reason for the delay.

Everything you say is true but I think it is more simple: Model 3 is not yet on the administration´s eligibility list for the 2000+2000 EUR incentive. Don´t know why it is not there, but don´t think because Tesla doesn´t want it there. Likely updated next Tuesday...

 

[avoigt]

Could be a number of reasons:

• Germany is the largest expected market for the Model 3 (larger than Norway I think), and they'd want to first measure demand in other EU markets, to calibrate:
  • pricing,
  • mix of Performance vs. Long Range,
  • delivery estimates.
• Germany has a new, very generous EV incentive starting on January 1, affecting about 800,000 corporate car purchases per year. I don't know the exact tax rules but maybe there is a peak of such sales in January due to the financial year of many corporations starting on January 1, and thus Tesla wants to shift some of the demand to those corporate customers.

They can probably meet whatever they promise to 1,000 Belgian reservation holders - but if they misjudge demand for 20,000 German customers and they give them a delivery estimate they'll miss by 2 months (the second European batch will be made in April and delivered in May at the earliest) there's going to be a lot of (justified) complaints exactly when Tesla wants lots of happy early customers the most.

I'd be surprised if configurator didn't open in the next 2-4 days - if it doesn't then there's probably some other reason for the delay.

To answer your question there is not special tax rule that would motivate companies to buy new company cars at a special time of the year.

Talking to a Tesla sales manager lately he confirm that Germanys ordering is late in the queue may have to do that the 3 is not yet on the lists of the 4k incentives.

 

[mongo]

Weekend OT:

How does Hyundai sell this for $37k? Selling at a loss or break even/?

Factor in the 5k for ZEV credit?

 

[hobbes]

...

• Dudenhöfer (German expert and influencer) stating Tesla will outpace all EVs in deliveries in 2019 and no competitor expected before 2020. That did make a lot of headlines and includes effects like company car taxes cuts (800 k sold p.a.). Gas car registrations go down.Tesla best selling car globally in 2018.

• Stock Market, Tesla best performing auto stock in 2018 and technicals and charts look very positive for a ATH and to move above soon. Technical strength and only stock that moves up in a very negative sentiment of investors.

On the negative side you find what you read mainly in the US as well. The 60 minutes interview, Elon Musk driving without hands on the wheel, VW is coming with the ID driving 550km for €30k and eating Teslas lunch, Audi and Porsche charging 100km range in 3 minutes making Tesla look weak .... a.o.

You mean Model 3 best selling EV, right ?!

 

[avoigt]

You mean Model 3 best selling EV, right ?!

Right, thanks for the notice, I just corrected it in the post.

 

[avoigt]

Here we go, the Megapack is indeed Mega!

(...) Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh. (...) The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. (...)

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

... I cannot wait for the moment Wall Street finally wakes up and considered TE as a part of Tesla they need to add to their assessment....

 

[ReflexFunds]

Here we go, the Megapack is indeed Mega!

(...) Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh. (...) The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. (...)

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

... I cannot wait for the moment Wall Street finally wakes up and considered TE as a part of Tesla they need to add to their assessment....

Very significantly, it looks like this is for the 300MW/1,200MWh project won by Dynergy/Vistra and not the previously announced Tesla 182.5MW/730MWh PG&E project. So it looks like Vistra has chosen Tesla to build its battery too, and Tesla will actually have a total of c.2GWh PG&E battery projects.

 

[EinSV]

Here we go, the Megapack is indeed Mega!

(...) Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh. (...) The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. (...)

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

... I cannot wait for the moment Wall Street finally wakes up and considered TE as a part of Tesla they need to add to their assessment....

That’s very interesting. Fred glosses over the even bigger story that it is Tesla who will be supplying the 1.2 GWh batteries for the Vistra project. To my knowledge the battery supplier for the Vistra project was not previously reported.

If Fred is correct that Tesla will be building the Vistra battery, that would mean that Tesla will be providing batteries for two GWh-scale projects for PG&E — the 1.2GWh Vistra project referred to in the Electrek article and the separate project PG&E will own of 730-1095 MWh.

Those two batteries are currently expected to be the two largest in the world when completed (deadline 12/2020 for each). Storage will replace 3 California gas plants as PG&E nabs approval for world's largest batteries

 

[JRP3]

Indeed, $TSLAQ have hacked the account for sure.

His previous posts seem to indicate a somewhat racist religious nut.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Indeed, $TSLAQ have hacked the account for sure.

Until recently, I've been active in the Tesla community on Twitter. I've been busy with work (very unfortunately) lately but I've been lurking here and also a bit on Twitter. I thought it was odd there were a number of twitter accounts with barely any activity over the past few years which suddenly came alive with new voices that sounded like TSLA short-sellers. For some dumb reason I didn't stop to think that they might have been hacked. Now I think the number of hacked accounts might be quite large - the shorts are getting desperate.

In other news, I'm up to 170 shares and have successfully made a great return trading the swings. I'd actually prefer the volatility in the stock go away, but until it does I'm going to take advantage of it. And a lot of friends/family will be getting unexpected Tesla paraphernalia this holiday season thanks to it.

 

[brian45011]

That’s very interesting. Fred glosses over the even bigger story that it is Tesla that will be supplying the 1.2 GWh batteries for the Vistra project. To my knowledge the battery supplier for the Vistra project was not previously reported.

If Fred is correct that Tesla will be building the Vistra battery, that would mean that Tesla will be providing batteries for two of the GWh-scale projects for PG&E — the 1.2GWh Vistra project referred to in the Electrek article and the separate project awarded directly to Tesla of 730-1095 MWh. PG&E Proposes World’s Biggest Batteries to Replace South Bay Gas Plants
View attachment 361125

Tesla's contract with PG&E is a turn-key Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC). Vistra's is a 20 year Purchased Power Agreement (PPA). It is likely Vistra has solicited competitive EPC bids for its installation. The Electrek document is a tender not an award so it might be better to wait for confirmation from Vistra.

 

[gringotuanis]

Indeed, I have no personal interest in holding to expiry; I'm just curious as to what happens if you don't have the liquidity for exercise. The IB information wasn't clear on how they decide on which way to deal with the situation.

I think most brokers would just close the option out then and give you the cash in your account. They wouldn't have any other option if you didn't have the $30k there to purchase the shares. I know I get reminder emails from the broker as I approach expiration that I need to check on the option.

 

[KarenRei]

I think most brokers would just close the option out then and give you the cash in your account. They wouldn't have any other option if you didn't have the $30k there to purchase the shares. I know I get reminder emails from the broker as I approach expiration that I need to check on the option.

They make it sound more complicated than that. They talk about, for example, if they give you cash for the current market price at close, but the the stock price is lower at open the next day, they've lost money - how do they deal with that? And one of the ways they've said that they might deal with it - in addition to perfectly reasonable ones like exercising before expiry, limiting your account until you've made up the difference, forcing the sale from your other assets, etc - is to simply not exercise the option. That's a scary possibility, yet I don't know in what case they'd do that. Which basically tells me... never let options just expire without cash to cover them.

If I can manage to transfer my stock in from my bank (doubtful), I could deal with this through simply selling 100 shares immediately before option expiry. Or, I could sell other options, then sell the shares from exercise, then re-purchase the options. But the best solution would just be to not ride options to expiry and not have to deal with it

 

[CorneliusXX]

Thanks! Moodys' Pre-Sale shows the total TALT 2018B pool as $919.71MM with 8.95% OC which comports with the offered amount of ~$837 in bonds. Which entity ends up with the OC at the end of the bonds' terms if not fully used because of defaults?

Other interesting details from the Pre-Sale are the trends in these parameters:
View attachment 361008

Usually the bonds are called when the outstanding balance of the leases is at 10% of the balance at the start of the deal. At this point Tesla will (likely) buy the leases at the current value. These funds are used to pay off the bonds. If there are enough defaults that there are no longer enough leases to pay off the bonds then the call option will likely say that the remaining leases can't be sold for less than the outstanding balance of the bonds. Once the bonds are repaid any remaining lease assets are transferred back to Tesla finance or rolled into another securitisation.

 

[KarenRei]

Weekend OT:

How does Hyundai sell this for $37k? Selling at a loss or break even/?

The overwhelming majority of manufacturers lose money on their EVs. Which is the reason they generally make them in small numbers with limited availability. Hyundai's goal for this year was making Konas at a rate of 18,6k per year annualized. If I recall correctly they plan to double that next year, but it's still tiny volumes for the whole world.

Exact same thing that they did with the Ioniq.

His previous posts seem to indicate a somewhat racist religious nut.

Wait, a racist religious nut truck driver? Come on, I can't picture that....

 

[KarenRei]

Here we go, the Megapack is indeed Mega!

(...) Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh. (...) The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. (...)

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

... I cannot wait for the moment Wall Street finally wakes up and considered TE as a part of Tesla they need to add to their assessment....

23′-5″ (7.14m) x 5′-3″ (1.60m) - Weird that they make them just a little too big for a 20' intermodal container (interior dimensions - 19′ 3″ (5.867m) x 7′ 8 19⁄32″ (2.352m) x 7′ 9 57⁄64″ (2.385m) ); they'll have to use 40' intermodal containers. They might be weight-limited rather than space-limited, but that just makes it worse - 40' containers hold 26,2 tonnes vs. 20' containers which hold 28,2 tonnes.

That said, I don't think they're weight-limited, given the 2673 kWh capacity (26,2 tonnes would work out to 101,75 Wh/kg). Which just makes the decision to make it just a meter too long to fit into a 20' container (with excess room above and to the sides) all the more baffling to me.

If I had to guess, the plan is that they use 40' intermodal containers and include a bunch of support hardware in the container with the megapacks. But that's just a guess.

 

[lklundin]

Oh, absolutely not a chance.

'Tho I thankee for asking so kindly.


see how nice I can be? I didn't even mention he's part of that cult who are confused as to where to put a "," and a "." in numbers.

Fair enough.

After all, people of similar trade or culture tend to develop their own jargon.

Not only does this give them ease of communication, but what they share also separates them from others, providing them with further bonding.

The metric system is all about avoiding that.

In that system an account's million and an engineers million are the same, so that they may communicate with less risk of misunderstanding each other.

Happy non-market action week-end to all.

 

[AudubonB]

23′-5″ (7.14m) x 5′-3″ (1.60m) - Weird that they make them just a little too big for a 20’ intermodal container.

A few observations-
It’s not weird IF Tesla were considering only the NoAm market, as it is at least as easy and efficient to place any number of them on 53’ flatbed trucks (2 w/o any permitting; 4 if they go to Wide Load permitting).

For projects across the world then I absolutely agree with you.

However, I have to disagree about your descriptor: it’s fully 22% longer than a fit. So why can’t they make it just enough wider and taller...and shorter? Perhaps there are site-specific reasons for this project (doubtful); perhaps this is the ideal configuration and for international projects they will have to compromise for shipping reasons (and if so, certainly hope they scrunch the shape so that TWO can fit in a 40).

 

[AudubonB]

Or worse: they messed up