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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'm pointing out the absurdity of allowing someone to drive away with a $60,000+ product before having received the money. What if that person just disappears? What if they were using a fake identity? What if the financing was fake? etc.

For most business-to-consumer transactions, the consumer doesn't get the product until it's been paid for.

Musk allowed this in response to some famous person who refused to buy the car without at test drive. The man was under some age legally in that particular state, so he let him drive it (sorry for lacking details...). Then I believe he continued it IMO because the risk of theft (write-off anyway) is less than the gain from the temptation and impulse buyer sales.

I'm also pointing out this question: "to what end?" Why would Tesla want to pull sales from Q1'19 and into Q4'18? Just makes their Q1'19 that much harder. Most investors are focused on the long-term with Tesla.

Q4 is critical for profits simply because Tesla had stated as much in their forward looking announcements last time. Q1 is expected to be lesser profits because they announced some debt payoff - so they have some leeway there.
 
770k sell orders there??!!

upload_2018-12-19_19-12-5.png
 
I know GAAP. I'm not arguing the accounting principles.

I'm pointing out the absurdity of allowing someone to drive away with a $60,000+ product before having received the money. What if that person just disappears? What if they were using a fake identity? What if the financing was fake? etc.

For most business-to-consumer transactions, the consumer doesn't get the product until it's been paid for.

I'm also pointing out this question: "to what end?" Why would Tesla want to pull sales from Q1'19 and into Q4'18? Just makes their Q1'19 that much harder. Most investors are focused on the long-term with Tesla.

How far are they gonna go without accessing a Supercharger? They’d also have to permanently disable the communications equipment. It’d be easier and less risky to just steal a random Tesla off the road.
 
What I read was unclear. Said it caught fire twice.
My understanding (but I could be wrong too). Car got a flat tire. Guy was close to destination, so just continued driving on a destroyed tire and rim. Tire caught fire. Fire department came and water soaked the battery for 6 hours, so presumably the tire also ignited the battery. Fire appeared to be out so they took away the car. Later it caught fire again. Key takeaways:
1. The battery was not the cause of the fire.
2. Yes, they are dangerous. But it's like an anti-explosion. "Please be careful around me for the next couple of weeks."
 
My understanding (but I could be wrong too). Car got a flat tire. Guy was close to destination, so just continued driving on a destroyed tire and rim. Tire caught fire. Fire department came and water soaked the battery for 6 hours, so presumably the tire also ignited the battery. Fire appeared to be out so they took away the car. Later it caught fire again. Key takeaways:
1. The battery was not the cause of the fire.
2. Yes, they are dangerous. But it's like an anti-explosion. "Please be careful around me for the next couple of weeks."
Okay - apparently tire do catch on fire. Further readings on how the tire caught fire?
 
WTF. Didn't know a tire could catch fire, source?
It happens all the time to airplanes. Happened once to a plane I was on. (Pan Am 747 in Honolulu. John McEnroe was on board heading to the Australian Open at the peak of his career. I got to see one of his famous meltdowns in person.) Look closely at the original twitter photo, I don't have time to track it down again.
 
I don't see the 770k sell/buy order in thinkorswim. If there was one that is not due to option exercise there should have been a noticeable jump in price (in either direction), no?

My Thinkorswim shows a trade of 7700 TSLA Dec 21 strike $350 calls with a price of $2.42 at 11:55 CST. That would represent call option interest in 770,000 TSLA shares. This may have been a dark pool options transaction. Thinkorswim indeed shows no related volume spike in the trading of actual shares.
 
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OT

It happens all the time to airplanes. Happened once to a plane I was on. (Pan Am 747 in Honolulu. John McEnroe was on board heading to the Australian Open at the peak of his career. I got to see one of his famous meltdowns in person.) Look closely at the original twitter photo, I don't have time to track it down again.

one can also check out the airbus and other aircraft stopping tests.
 
This contradicts what I read about the case. I read that the car had just been towed when it started outgassing, then burning.

I strongly suspect that they're going to find that the tow truck operator damaged the battery pack (e.g. they'll find clear evidence of denting or tearing of the pack and cells).

ED: here we go:

"An employee of the tire shop said the vehicle was brought in on a tow truck, and he noticed a hissing sound coming from it, then within minutes, the vehicle was on fire."
 
OT, or probably not, depends on whether you’re shorts.
What I read was unclear. Said it caught fire twice.
What I read so far is this car had flat tire on hw-17 which is a narrow mountain road with lots of high speed turns, mostly no shoulder at all. I don’t think anyone would be able to keep the car completely on the road if you blow a front tire. Actually if you managed to not roll the car you are lucky than many drivers who did every year, so I won’t be surprised if the car jumped the curb and hit the bottom hard, we don’t know whether that happened to this car, but that’s my suspicion.

Also as someone already pointed out, we don’t know how the car was tolled to the shop, if the rear wheels were left on the ground, it will not be a surprise that battery/electrics overheating to ignition point.

About catching fire twice, that’s just noise, we all know once the pack caught fire, and responders dumped water in it, it tends to reignite later until it completely cooled down, responders know it so they are expecting it to happen, and the car would be kept in an isolated location for a period of time for that reason.
 
Is today "Change your Avatar" day... having a hard time figuring out who's who. :confused::D

Yeah, I can't find my own posts any more, very confusing!

OK, OT, sorry, but a reminder why we're investing in Tesla, aside the 20x return, that is. Greta is an inspiration to us all and a new breed of leadership.

 
If everybody stopped posting about cat's, dog's, investing strategy's, tax issues,insurance problems,analysts failures, boring co news,option trading plans,warning about option trading plans,examples of option trading plans....well I would have nothing to read on this 20 hour layover in the garden spot of america...Akron OH.

So please post away.

p.s. Yes I am THAT addicted to TMC

This!
 
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Troy has lowered his q4 model 3 production estimate. New number: 55,820

Troy Teslike on Twitter

There is a controversial discussion going on at Twitter about his Q4 prediction as well as for 2019.

He has done a great job predicting numbers in the last quarters but I have a hard time to understand his logic for next year. In fact he believes for instance that the demand for the 3 in Europe is not higher or even lower than in the US and that although sedans are much more popular in Europe where parking lots and streets are just more narrow versus the US.

Not to mention that the EU is a market with a larger population.

Also we know that 3k 3s per week are expected to arrive in Seebrügge at Feb/March and should assume they will increase that over the year.

Dec 18
I estimate 286,000 #Model3 deliveries globally in 2019. I think the split could be as follows: 47% North America 36% Europe 17% Asia/Pacific
Troy Teslike on Twitter


Thats just about 5700 3s/w in average for the entire year 2019 and depending on where you assume the production rate is today just very little production increase for the full year if at all.

I guess I have to disagree with Troys prediction for 2019 .....
 
Just thought I`d mention that the Norway year-end push seems to have burnt out a bit early.

After being in the 70s-80s per day, it shot up to 120-140, but yesterday it was only 68 and today we have 16 with roughly half of the business day gone. Unless it picks up again, the quarter should end in the 1700-1800 range as opposed to the previous two quarters being in the 2200 range. Not terrible, but lower, back to Q1 level.

Then again, I think expect Tesla has heavily focused on the US this quarter due to the tax incentive running out, so I would expect record numbers there.

And back to 123 today, go figure... 344 more deliveries this year to beat last year and that, as you say, its a likely focus on US deliveries in 2H18
 
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