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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Total EU+EFTA vehicle sales in 2017 was 18.1M
Total US vehicle sales in 2017 was 17.25M + 2.04M from Canada= 19.29M

Europeans who don't own a car and use public transportation exclusively are largely irrelevant to car sales. A handful may be convinced to buy a car now and again but not many.

I would also bet the ASP of vehicles is higher in the US/Canada than EU+EFTA.
 
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That's exactly the problem they face. They're trying to walk a tightrope.
The problem is the tail wagging the dog. Fiscal policy is out of wack and the lack of ethical and science based government taxing and spending is putting all the visibility on the fed. Congress doesn’t do its job in creating budgets, preferring to be jurists and pundits rather then focusing on their constitutional job of funding the government and providing oversight (not maximizing pork) and making sure our spending isn’t wasteful.
This has perhaps been an issue growing over time, but endemic since Clinton impeachment. I don’t see either party working hard to solve, since it requires trust that the other party will make compromises required for a two party system designed to respect the minority party.
 
Oof, well, this week has left me licking my wounds. Still up a sizeable amount on my initial investment, but the percentage has dropped considerably. Thankfully I had hedged with some covered calls, or all returns since September might have been wiped out. Leverage is a hell of a thing. If tomorrow and Friday are repeats of earlier this week, I may even turn negative.
 
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OT

The problem is the tail wagging the dog. Fiscal policy is out of wack and the lack of ethical and science based government taxing and spending is putting all the visibility on the fed.
Yep.

One party (the Republicans) seems to be economically brain-dead, repeatedly calling for contractionary fiscal policy during recessions and expansionary fiscal policy during booms. That makes things worse.

And then there's the problem of the highly unrepresentative Senate, which means that small states with very unusual economies, like Wyoming (coal), Vermont (organic farming and tourism), Alaska (oil), North Dakota (oil), and Delaware (tax evasion and corporate fraud), etc. wield outsized power.
 
Europe and Japan have had negative interest rates so it is possible.

It's not possible to go very negative, though. There does come a point at which people exercise their right to demand their cash in the form of banknotes, which carry a 0 interest rate -- the point at which the negative interest rate exceeds the cost of storing the banknotes in a vault with guards, basically. If they try to devalue the banknotes, that's when people start hoarding commodities. So there really is a practical lower limit, even if it's -1% rather than 0%.
 
I would also bet the ASP of vehicles is higher in the US/Canada than EU+EFTA.

Anecdotally North Americans buy big cars with big engines while Europeans by small cars with small engines but add "top spec interiors."

Lots of subcompact hatchbacks with leather interiors and premium sound etc

VW can't sell the Polo profitably in North America but does so in Europe.
 
Oof, well, this week has left me licking my wounds. Still up a sizeable amount on my initial investment, but the percentage has dropped considerably. Thankfully I had hedged with some covered calls, or all returns since September might have been wiped out. Leverage is a hell of a thing. If tomorrow and Friday are repeats of earlier this week, I may even turn negative.

I did. Got greedy with short-dated calls, which I almost never do. Though I'm fairly hopeful my longer-dated calls (Jan & Feb monthlies) will go back ITM and make me overall profitable again. Might also put in some cash and buy more Feb or Mar monthlies, or some LEAPs while prices are low. This is just my options account too. Retirement accounts are all long stock.

On the plus side, the 12/21 losses will help when I file.
 
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