TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JBRR]

I’m a danish reservation holder and just got invitation to configure. Delivery in February/March.

 

[neroden]

Article is comically thin for it's suggestion that we are in the midst of market upheaval like '87 or '08. We haven't had anything like those drops thus far, and the article makes no case for stocks being very overvalued at current levels, or the economy being in a fragile place.

1987 is interesting. The economy was doing just fine.

Bear Markets Without Recessions – It’s a thing

This is worth looking at.

 

[JRP3]

Would this affect the stock market ?

The situation inside the White House was dire Thursday night, the report said. A Republican close to the White House told the Post Trump was in “a tailspin,” acting “totally irrationally” and “flipping out.”

Sounds like a typical day.

 

[sweter]

OT
I was a bit low yesterday regarding SP, but spending time on the forum has perked me up. I am relatively bullish on Q4 but mostly focussed on Q1/S&P inclusion/getting a positive p/e ratio. However, when reading some of the recent Model Y posts I was reminded just what a big deal it will be - it is sneaking up on us. Elon has talked up the pickup recently but the Y is bound to be a game changer for several reasons (alien dreadnought, Flexi circuits, 3 rows in compact body, styling etc). Being a CUV at ~peak CUV sales helps too.. Just the announcement of the unveil in March (Feb announcement?) could affect SP (perhaps a teaser picture) - I will add to my list of milestones.

I don't feel the Y unveiling will have the same effect as the 3 unveiling. Everyone will be a lot more cautious about any forward looking statements. I don't think the market will trust the alien dreadnought plans. And I wonder if many people outside of the US will actually want to reserve it, seeing that reservations in Europe didn't turn out to be important almost at all.

 

[neroden]

I don't believe that

You can disbelieve if you want to ignore reality and be as dumb as the short-sellers, but you're wrong. What I wrote is fact, I tracked it.

From real logged data, only considering drives over 25 miles

Too short. I'm talking serious drives where range matters, driving all day. (For 25F-30F in normal snow, it applies to drives of over 60 miles, which I do routinely in sub-freezing weather, but in fact my data set for the super-bad weather is drives *which required recharging on route* only, so well over 150 miles.)

average speed 40mph

Too slow. Highway speeds, 55 mph. Remember, serious distance driving.

Your mileage numbers won't really normalize until you've been driving for an hour. But my numbers are, in actual fact, correct for distance driving (where range matters).

If you're getting worse than 30% range loss in distance driving (>150 miles), your car is simply defective; get it fixed.

 

[neroden]

Fun statistic:

3/4 th of the 9,000 Tesla drivers in the Netherlands did get a fine for violating speed limits this year. No other brand achieved that.

Good data point when it comes to the rate of Tesla fires. And crashes. And injuries.

I knew Teslas had a higher proportion of reckless drivers than other car brands, but now I have evidence!

 

[uselesslogin]

1987 is interesting. The economy was doing just fine.

Bear Markets Without Recessions – It’s a thing

This is worth looking at.

1987 was crazy. A 25% drop in one day and no one really ever figured out why.

Also, this from Wikipedia:

Following the stock market crash, a group of 33 eminent economists from various nations met in Washington, D.C. in December 1987, and collectively predicted that "the next few years could be the most troubled since the 1930s".

 

[neroden]

The situation inside the White House was dire Thursday night, the report said. A Republican close to the White House told the Post Trump was in “a tailspin,” acting “totally irrationally” and “flipping out.”

This isn't actually new, unfortunately. That's been a description of Trump since the election, and probably much longer.

Our national short-term problem is that almost all of the Republican Party has become a cult, so even though Trump is blatantly unfit to hold office, they won't remove him. And the Senate simply requires too many votes to remove a President on impeachment. There are probably six Republican votes to remove him, but there need to be 20, and there simply aren't that many Republican Senators who care about their country more than they care about loyalty to the cult leader.

So, in conclusion, no, this won't affect the market, because nothing has changed recently; it's already "priced in", so to speak.

 

[NicoV]

German survey about the 3s preferred configurations:

sample: +1000 people

LR AW P 10%
LR AW 33%
LR - 22%
MR - 33%

71% take AP!

Rumors are about 10 - 20 k reservation holders in Germany. A sample size of 1k is above 5% and therefore statistically relevant.

20k reservations with 43% orderable configurations -> 8600 potential Model 3 sales in Q1 in Germany alone. At 3K/week from end februari on, Germany alone is already half of the deliverable cars in Q1 europe.

 

[ZeApelido]

Article is comically thin for it's suggestion that we are in the midst of market upheaval like '87 or '08. We haven't had anything like those drops thus far, and the article makes no case for stocks being very overvalued at current levels, or the economy being in a fragile place. Just a single data point is cited that doesn't necessarily mean the market will go down from here. In fact, the article says hitting this data point is on average followed by a 4% rise the next week for the S&P 500, and +3% the following month. Bloomberg takes that one data point that doesn't really support the doom/gloom thesis, and simply adds a quote from a person with a title meant to suggest 'authority' who expresses handwringing.

Could just be the equivalent of Bloomberg and others picking a data point without context (like the goofy "market cap/vehicle sold stat" among others) re Tesla and then inserting grim quotes from people with titles meant to suggest 'authority.'

fwiw, I wouldn't be surprised if the market sells off another 10% from here... but, I don't see evidence provided to support "Shades of 1987 and 2008..." as the headline trumpets.

Allan Greenspan is concerned, and he's never been wrong

 

[ZeApelido]

German survey about the 3s preferred configurations:

sample: +1000 people

LR AW P 10%
LR AW 33%
LR - 22%
MR - 33%

71% take AP!

Rumors are about 10 - 20 k reservation holders in Germany. A sample size of 1k is above 5% and therefore statistically relevant.

Where's the SR option? Certainly some %of reservation will wait for that.

 

[NicoV]

Rumors are about 10 - 20 k reservation holders in Germany. A sample size of 1k is above 5% and therefore statistically relevant.

Someone else on the German forum said he was told approximately 52,000 reservations from Germany alone! So excited.

That ‘s a very wide range of estimates.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Would this affect the stock market ?

The situation inside the White House was dire Thursday night, the report said. A Republican close to the White House told the Post Trump was in “a tailspin,” acting “totally irrationally” and “flipping out.”

How is that different from any of his other Thursdays? /s

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

I think we can start a movement to make driving a Tesla illegal.
They encourage people to massively exceed the speed limit.

Here is the evidence.

Fun statistic:

3/4 th of the 9,000 Tesla drivers in the Netherlands did get a fine for violating speed limits this year. No other brand achieved that.

Tesla is the new Porsche....

Bleifuß-Alarm: Tesla ist das neue Porsche - electrive.net

P.S. ask yourself why this happened and we can talk about demand....

Cars that encourage such reckless speeding must be banned.
Should knock three or fours points off the stock price.

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[hobbes]

German survey about the 3s preferred configurations:

sample: +1000 people

LR AW P 10%
LR AW 33%
LR - 22%
MR - 33%

71% take AP!

Rumors are about 10 - 20 k reservation holders in Germany. A sample size of 1k is above 5% and therefore statistically relevant.

On the German forum someone wrote today he was told approximately 52,000 reservations in Germany: Model 3 seit 21.12.2018 in Deutschland bestellbar • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

Maybe the difference is between reservations and reservation holders (one holder may have multiple reservations)? Or someone confused German and European numbers. But while the number would be certainly higher than expected for Germany, it would be much lower than expected for Europe (very rough estimate - starting from 400,000 total, 200,000 US/100,000 each for Europe and China?).

BTW, I ordered . EU Market Situation and Outlook

 

[hobbes]

That ‘s a very wide range of estimates.

True, wide range of numbers - the number I quoted was reported to the German forum by a member saying he was told so in a Tesla show room, so I´d say that is more than a rumour. Weighted average: ((10-20k=15k)*(rumourCoefficient=1)+52k*(second-hand-forum-info-coefficient=2))/3 = approx. 40k

 

[X Fan]

Article is comically thin for it's suggestion that we are in the midst of market upheaval like '87 or '08. We haven't had anything like those drops thus far, and the article makes no case for stocks being very overvalued at current levels, or the economy being in a fragile place. Just a single data point is cited that doesn't necessarily mean the market will go down from here. In fact, the article says hitting this data point is on average followed by a 4% rise the next week for the S&P 500, and +3% the following month. Bloomberg takes that one data point that doesn't really support the doom/gloom thesis, and simply adds a quote from a person with a title meant to suggest 'authority' who expresses handwringing.

Could just be the equivalent of Bloomberg and others picking a data point without context (like the goofy "market cap/vehicle sold stat" among others) re Tesla and then inserting grim quotes from people with titles meant to suggest 'authority.'

fwiw, I wouldn't be surprised if the market sells off another 10% from here... but, I don't see evidence provided to support "Shades of 1987 and 2008..." as the headline trumpets.

2008 was just a different animal with real estate a big driver. I just don’t see that now.

However, we’ve been long overdue for a correction.

Central Banks raising rates and soaking up the excess cash that they spread throughout the world after the last financial crash was going to be a detractor to positive market valuations.

Current Governments will get blamed for this but it was all set in place over last 8 years through excess Central Bank liquidity.

Tesla will be a bright spot through this correction but as the old saying re: impact to boats on falling and raising tides, TSLA will be impacted by the macro environment.

 

[pyromatter]

Tesla loses former Gigafactory boss to start-up that makes 'designer molecules' for food and drugs

 

[lklundin]

Feels like I took a bottle of Xanax when this thing jumps $5 while I'm sitting on the toilet (just a joke, I don't do drugs, only TSLA)

Very funny, since you appear to admit to checking TSLA while sitting on the toilet.

On that topic, what do you look at while brushing your teeth?

 

[mongo]

Tesla loses former Gigafactory boss to start-up that makes 'designer molecules' for food and drugs

Way former:

Tesla Gigafactory workers told CNBC this summer that they thought Clausen was on leave, and they weren't sure if he was returning to the company. On Sept. 7, Tesla announced a spate of promotions as part of a broader restructuring. In that announcement, it named Chris Lister as Gigafactory vice president.

He joined in July 2015 after a decade at Lego.