TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lklundin]

Trying to play catch-up on this thread, and just want to be sure that everyone knows:

Invitations to configure are going out in Germany!

 

[hobbes]

Very funny, since you appear to admit to checking TSLA while sitting on the toilet.

On that topic, what do you look at while brushing your teeth?

That´s Spiegel the short seller in the picture, was in an article a few weeks ago and made fun of a lot around TMC.

 

[avoigt]

True, wide range of numbers - the number I quoted was reported to the German forum by a member saying he was told so in a Tesla show room, so I´d say that is more than a rumour. Weighted average: ((10-20k=15k)*(rumourCoefficient=1)+52k*(second-hand-forum-info-coefficient=2))/3 = approx. 40k

The 52k from the Hannover store Manager sound credible. I never bought Dudenhöfers or other so called expert as they simply not have the know-how the average of this forums members have. They are in their personal ICE echo chamber. Also they actually do not know anything about the 3 really as most have never driven a Tesla in particular not a 3.

My calculations go beyond 50 k for Germany (first wave) and between 150k - 200 k for Europe (first wave). This is the first mover wave say people who are fanboys and buy a car without having driven it and have the financial flexibility. A second wave will follow shortly after people have seen the 3 from friends and family and driven it and after all the FUD about the 3 has been proven wrong and settled.

Sustainable demand for all 3 variants will be very high in Europe. Its the perfect market for this car.

As of now people need to explain why they bought a 3 very soon people need to explain why they didn't.

 

[Drax7]

1987 is interesting. The economy was doing just fine.

Bear Markets Without Recessions – It’s a thing

This is worth looking at.

Greenspan had just begun and threatened further rate increases, similar
To what Powell is doing now. He provoked the crash and now Powell
Is going along the same path.

 

[kbM3]

Rumor:

A commenter on Electrek claims he has 2 factory sources stating production is currently > 7k/week, in direct contradiction to Troy’s 3400/week estimate.

For what it’s worth.

 

[gene]

As I have mentioned before. I always keep an eye on Supercharger activity. When things are going well for Tesla, Tesla spends money on Superchargers. This quarter has been plenty of spending going on for Supercharger build out. Just take a look here! And while you are at it, donate a few bucks to this website please.
supercharge.info

 

[agloutney]

Rumor:

A commenter on Electrek claims he has 2 factory sources stating production is currently > 7k/week, in direct contradiction to Troy’s 3400/week estimate.

For what it’s worth.

Model 3 or total?

 

[Sunlight]

This isn't actually new, unfortunately. That's been a description of Trump since the election, and probably much longer.

Our national short-term problem is that almost all of the Republican Party has become a cult, so even though Trump is blatantly unfit to hold office, they won't remove him. And the Senate simply requires too many votes to remove a President on impeachment. There are probably six Republican votes to remove him, but there need to be 20, and there simply aren't that many Republican Senators who care about their country more than they care about loyalty to the cult leader.

So, in conclusion, no, this won't affect the market, because nothing has changed recently; it's already "priced in", so to speak.

Funnily it was just like that here in South Africa where the ANC would not rid itself of Zuma despite all the evidence that he was damaging (wrecking?) the country.(cult-ish)

Now he is gone and we see the damage and everyone is 'sorry' they let it go on so long.

So tolerate Trump for a whole lot longer and you'll have a massive tangled ball of wool to straighten out.....

And just like Zuma and South Africa, USA world credibility will be shot and it is difficult to reverse that sentiment quickly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for that.

What's this commenter's username? I'd like to follow along? (PM me if needed)

Cheers!

ProBiz-Angel • 11 hours ago

"Good move. They are currently producing well over 7k M3's per week. They won't have any problem meeting their delivery goals as of today."​

Disqus - Tesla starts selling and delivering cars out of Gigafactory 1 – comes with a tour

 

[brian45011]

ProBiz-Angel • 11 hours ago

"Good move. They are currently producing well over 7k M3's per week. They won't have any problem meeting their delivery goals as of today."​

Disqus - Tesla starts selling and delivering cars out of Gigafactory 1 – comes with a tour

Sales tax on cars and vehicles in Nevada

 

[Krugerrand]

ProBiz-Angel • 11 hours ago

"Good move. They are currently producing well over 7k M3's per week. They won't have any problem meeting their delivery goals as of today."​

Disqus - Tesla starts selling and delivering cars out of Gigafactory 1 – comes with a tour

Anyone else thinking about moving to Nevada and buying another Tesla just to get a tour of Gigafactory?

 

[1101011]

OT - Lordstown

Your statement makes little sense - that's not what being a swing state entails. The reference is to its status in US Presidential elections. Ohio has a 56-year record of picking the winner of the White House; one has to go back to 1960 when it voted for Nixon to find the last time it failed to hit it correctly.
Continuing back, it chose Dewey over FDR in Roosevelt's final, 1944, election; Grover Cleveland over Benjamin Harrison in 1892 and over James Blaine in 1884 (but it correctly went for Harrison over Cleveland in 1888).
So - choosing the winning side all but four times since 1856...I don't think Ohio is ready to give up its mantle as a swing state.

Yes, Ohio is a swing state- and more red-ish than blue-ish these days.

But I do not think politics is the reason to reject the Lordstown offer. More problematic is the very pro union aspect. if you think the ICE to EV conversion is difficult, I'd say the UAW -> Tesla factory worker is equally challenging.

There are many aspects to this idea which would work well, but...

 

[jbih]

I just looked at BMW 3-series sales numbers. Europe sales is 2x US, and China is 1.3x US.

That means Europe+China should give Tesla enough high ASP orders for the whole year 2019.

Europe:
View attachment 362732
(source: BMW 3-series European sales figures)

China:
View attachment 362733
(BMW 3-Series L China auto sales figures)

US:
View attachment 362736
(http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/bmw-3-series/)

While the BMW 3-series numbers going down is certainly caused partly by expected Tesla Model 3 availability, the main reason probably is the new generation of the 3-series that came out in 2018. I expect the Tesla-effect to be more pronounced in the future.

 

[EVNow]

Rumor:

A commenter on Electrek claims he has 2 factory sources stating production is currently > 7k/week, in direct contradiction to Troy’s 3400/week estimate.

For what it’s worth.

Troy has the problem of the samples not being random. In the beginning it kind of works when the sample is a large % of actual sales - but as the % declines, the non-randomness of the sample bites.

Ofcourse that doesn't mean a random comment from an unknown person is any more reliable.

 

[jbih]

Allan Greenspan is concerned, and he's never been wrong

This is what Matt Taibbi had to say about Greenspan in the book Griftopia: “The Biggest Asshole in the Universe”

 

[lklundin]

Nevada residents can purchase and take delivery of Tesla cars at Gigafactory 1

I wonder why Tesla would not make that offer to any US buyer ?

 

[Zaxxon]

Avatar change secured. Hoping this sale lasts into the first trading day of 2019 for IRA purposes.

 

[scaesare]

LOL, the thought crossed my mind that if that wall got built, it would turn out to be a 100 year supply of 20' steel beams for the locals to carry off 1 at a time (all they need is a battery powered sawzall ), and use to build the bridges and overpasses they need for their own country's betterment. Thousands of miles of quality American steel, all lined up and free for the taking... What are we going to do; guard every last mile of wall? That wall isn't expected to cost billions for nothing; those steel wall columns would probably be quite valuable in the recycle/reuse metals industry.

</OT

We'll show them... we'll make it out of copper!

 

[Krugerrand]

If that were the only cause you might have a point.

Certainly it’s not the only reason, but come on. There are several examples of fires due to high speed ‘issues’. That’s never going to happen in a Bolt. (Dude, let’s break into that GM dealership over there and grab the key fob to that baby blue Bolt and joyride!!!)

So technically I think those kind of fire incidents (and bullet ones and driving over highway obstacles et al) should be removed from the fire list to give a more accurate comparison. Otherwise it comes across as yet another over dramatization of Tesla bad - context matters.

It is an interesting data point, though, and even more interesting the lack of Model 3 fires in its over one year history. It appears something is different/was changed. Or just random, unexplained luck...

 

[ZenMan]

I wonder why Tesla would not make that offer to any US buyer ?

Maybe because Nevada is similar to California in that they won't waive the requirement to pay local sales tax on the car even if you are registering it out of state...