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Really impressive. From up to 130 to 200 steps down to 40 makes it 3-5 fold less steps.
It may sound like a technical detail to many but thats a magnitude we are talking here and steps translate in costs and with it competitiveness.
Usually an advantage like that does not have a large impact at beginning of a ramp and I call this still the early beginning.
The true cost advantages of the 3 will be more visible in 2019 to 2021 in particular with new production lines emerging e.g. China and EU where challenges Fremont has e.g. space will materialize in further costs advantages. Bright days ahead.
“We could see the Model 3 assembled, from an empty body to a fully functional car in a bit more than 40 steps and 90 minutes, on a line about 1,000 feet long,” Ferragu said in a note to clients. “Its simplicity is unbelievable.”
In contrast, “A comparable car by any traditional automaker could take anywhere from 130 to 200 steps, Ferragu says, easily setting the Model 3 apart. The findings are similar to what UBS’ Evidence Lab found when tearing down a Model 3 earlier this year, finding ‘next-gen, military grade’ tech below the finish.”
40 Steps & 90 Minutes To Produce Tesla Model 3 | CleanTechnica
“We could see the Model 3 assembled, from an empty body to a fully functional car in a bit more than 40 steps and 90 minutes, on a line about 1,000 feet long,” Ferragu said in a note to clients. “Its simplicity is unbelievable.”
In contrast, “A comparable car by any traditional automaker could take anywhere from 130 to 200 steps, Ferragu says, easily setting the Model 3 apart. The findings are similar to what UBS’ Evidence Lab found when tearing down a Model 3 earlier this year, finding ‘next-gen, military grade’ tech below the finish.”
Stepping back: the pack, suspension, and drive units come in as one pre-arranged module from a separate process. Same with door assembly. So GA is 40 steps, but there are more steps, along with people and floor space, that are needed.
Speaking of parts, concider that the drive unit takes many many many less steps and parts to build than an ICE and x-speed transmission.
Stepping back: the pack, suspension, and drive units come in as one pre-arranged module from a separate process. Same with door assembly. So GA is 40 steps, but there are more steps, along with people and floor space, that are needed.
Today's edition of The Toronto Star, WHEELS section, included a full two-page write up on the 2019 Audi E-Tron. Author, Norris McDonald, was gushingly positive over this EV.
Putting it into perspective... there are more steps than 200 with other car manufacturers as well.
The relative advantage therefore remains.
The cynic in me is quite amazed how well this works for Audi: they sponsored a nice vacation ^H^H^H I mean "research trip" to warm and sunny Abu Dhabi and look at what amount of great publicity they got! I mean two full pages of advertisement that's quite well done.
connect the dots for me please ... that's a 311 page document, and i'm not sure which page the punchline is on.
Ms. Denholm may bring some closer over sight. Two CAOs leaving in less than a year requires some recovery time.Maybe instead of going straight for the Alien Dreadnaught, Elon should have automated all the accounting.
SCTY acquisition was in 4Q16 not 4Q17.
You know... you almost had me replying to this seriously after a quick read.... only after I noticed your use of "premium" and what was in the accompanying pics did I then chuckle instead...“Turbo” is no longer the gimmicky marketing term of the 80s used for non-turbine things. Sir Mixalot legitimized the term in 1992 by rapping the line “got it goin like a turbo Vette.” Since then turbo has been used on only the most premium products.
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I don’t know how Tesla will be able to compete.
Anyone disagree with any of these numbers?
Looks mostly good to me - with the added note that you added in warranty provisions but subtracted only current ongoing costs - while the future average cost of this newly sold fleet will probably cause more warranty costs down the road.
I.e. the quarterly warranty costs are always delayed by at least a few quarters and during such quick ramp-up this hides some of the future warranty costs.
So I'd estimate the true cash position in Q3 if we doubled the warranty costs - i.e. -$108m instead of -$54m. That would give it a rough lower bound of the 'timing-invariant true cash flow from operations' analysis you are trying to do here, agreed?
(Maybe @brian45011 wants to chime in as well.)
I agree the Toronto Star article is nothing more than advertising, bought and paid for by Audi. That is how most Media works. How can the writer be subjective. It's like being invited to diner party and criticizing the host on the meal. Don't bite the hand that feeds you mentality. However people will read it, and many people will take it to heart. This is exactly why Tesla gets 100X more negative press than they deserve (by not advertising) and why Tesla will never get a two page article in the Toronto Star. That should have happened with the release of the MS, MX and M3. It didn't.OT
Thanks for sharing! The cynic in me is quite amazed how well this works for Audi: they sponsored a nice vacation ^H^H^H I mean "research trip" to warm and sunny Abu Dhabi and look at what amount of great publicity they got! I mean two full pages of advertisement that's quite well done. It is smart from several perspectives: of course it is the right climate for the eTron, it is also an exotic setting, great photo opportunity, plus it takes the journalist out of the office for at least 3 days (if not more), so you can be sure that you will get a long article in return... (remember these days journalists need to produce a ton of words every day to be paid).
Tesla produced 53k model 3s in q3, and I think it is fairly certain they could blow that out of the water in q4 if they chose to. I am substantially unclear about why they did not pull more demand levers, particularly leasing, in order to produce and sell somewhere closer to 65k this quarter. If they come out under 60k I am going to be puzzled by the decision to do so.
My estimate is basically 4.5k * 8weeks + 6k * 4 weeks with the rest idle time, or 60k. While it makes for better quarterly numbers to deliberately reduce inventory it really isn't rational to optimize in such a manner, particularly since any excess inventory can fill in for demand early in q1 while they pipe all new production outside of n. America.