no it’s not just you
Constructive Suggestions for Investor Response to Media Coverage Involving Tesla and Its Products
and it’s some of what goes on at far more outlets than CNBC and Bloomberg.
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no it’s not just you
Constructive Suggestions for Investor Response to Media Coverage Involving Tesla and Its Products
and it’s some of what goes on at far more outlets than CNBC and Bloomberg.
sweter
Member
You know what they say about $TSLA movement and good news....
Ive stopped clicking on all negative Tesla articles. I was adding comments each time, but have stopped doing that.
Many people want Tesla to fail. Hopefully this will pass in 2018. But I doubt it. Once model 3 reaches critical mass things may change.
Many people want Tesla to fail. Hopefully this will pass in 2018. But I doubt it. Once model 3 reaches critical mass things may change.
I’ll be honest. It appears to me there very well may be bottlenecks soon due to suppliers being terminated and/or not being able to keep up and the slack needing to be picked up elsewhere. The next few months will be awfully interesting. Reaching 5k+/wk may not be an easy feat.
bdy0627
Active Member
I haven't seen any recent suggestions that suppliers are likely to have difficulty keeping up with the ramp. Where did you see that?
Edit: Nevermind. I see the language in the Musk email and I'm sure that's what you are referring to.
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
The funny thing is that "off in the horizon" is 3K-4K next month (May) and 5K+ in 2.5 months from now (end of June). We are basically there if things go to plan and it looks like the plan is pretty known at this point; it's not hopes and dreams like it was in June 2017.
I don't think we've ever been this close to 5K/week and have Elon reiterate guidance, it's always been a delay.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I think that's just more of a threat to keep suppliers on their toes.
Suppliers don't want to get kicked off a high volume program like the Model 3. They'll work hard to keep Tesla happy.
They've also known about the 5k/wk goal for a long time. And they've had plenty of time to prepare. I think this is just to keep the fire under them to ensure they don't let up.
Most entertaining parts: 'There is a very wide range of contractor performance, from excellent to worse than a drunken sloth' and ending with 'We are burning the midnight oil to burn the midnight oil.'
well, there was this in the letter Electrek picked up,
"There is a very wide range of contractor performance, from excellent to worse than a drunken sloth. All contracting companies should consider the coming week to be a final opportunity to demonstrate excellence. Any that fail to meet the Tesla standard of excellence will have their contracts ended on Monday."
Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk
fwiw, I take it to mean anyone acting towards the "drunken sloth" end of the spectrum that's still around has until Monday to prove that they can meet Tesla's expectations or they will no longer be a supplier.
Thank you for taking it away from me
I think you are confusing contractors and suppliers.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
So this quarter’s production looks like:
Week 1: 2070
Week 2: 2250
Week 3: zero (could be a couple days of production, but I prefer to assume the worst)
Weeks 4-11: 3k/week (could be up to 4k/week, but I prefer to assume the worst)
Week 12: zero
Week 13: 4-6k (anything above 5k exceptionally unlikely)
So total quarterly production looks like 32k with an exit rate rate of 4k+/week— which I’m very comfortable with. If all goes well, production could be just over 40k, but I think it’s silly to assume all will go well. This matches Musk’s statement in the CBS interview about 3-4x last quarter’s production.
I assume the market will be slow to accept this, but I’m willing to wait for the market to catch up.
Week 1: 2070
Week 2: 2250
Week 3: zero (could be a couple days of production, but I prefer to assume the worst)
Weeks 4-11: 3k/week (could be up to 4k/week, but I prefer to assume the worst)
Week 12: zero
Week 13: 4-6k (anything above 5k exceptionally unlikely)
So total quarterly production looks like 32k with an exit rate rate of 4k+/week— which I’m very comfortable with. If all goes well, production could be just over 40k, but I think it’s silly to assume all will go well. This matches Musk’s statement in the CBS interview about 3-4x last quarter’s production.
I assume the market will be slow to accept this, but I’m willing to wait for the market to catch up.
I really recommend reading Elon's letter a couple of times.
Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk
One way or the other, to my view, this isn't just another Tesla letter or blog that maybe moves the stock a little today and tomorrow or not. Instead, this letter has the looks of going down as a landmark moment for Tesla, and not just the reiteration of 5K by June target. Among other things, this letter also says to all the anecdotal swipes at Tesla re build quality (and the broader doubt about Tesla and its products solidity they are designed to evoke), we are determined to reach a previously unimagined new standard in design and production precision (outpacing the industry by an order of magnitude).
Some risk that this letter becomes notorious in Tesla's history, but, I'm pretty confident it will turn out to be a long remembered signature moment in the company's emergence as a leader in the mass marketplace.
Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk
One way or the other, to my view, this isn't just another Tesla letter or blog that maybe moves the stock a little today and tomorrow or not. Instead, this letter has the looks of going down as a landmark moment for Tesla, and not just the reiteration of 5K by June target. Among other things, this letter also says to all the anecdotal swipes at Tesla re build quality (and the broader doubt about Tesla and its products solidity they are designed to evoke), we are determined to reach a previously unimagined new standard in design and production precision (outpacing the industry by an order of magnitude).
Some risk that this letter becomes notorious in Tesla's history, but, I'm pretty confident it will turn out to be a long remembered signature moment in the company's emergence as a leader in the mass marketplace.
Bears on Twitter are rallying around 6k burst rate at June end, with the intent to get to that steady state a few months later. This wording is a bit worrying. I'd have much rather preferred a reiteration of steady state 5k for Q3.
I'm still expecting 5000/w by end of August.
6000/w constant I'd say around September-October. Which would be basically " a few months later".
It is though. 24 hours at 100% efficiency to hit 850 a day gives a 16% buffer to hit 5k/wk. It is also a cutoff deadline for suppliers to meet or else get cut off...
Once everything can hit the 6k mark, they'll work on efficiency and consistancy to hit it regularly and in less than 24 hours of operation per day.
ironically, this appears to be Elon's following through on his comments that he's not been great with estimates and needs to do better. that is, continue to set a standard for suppliers and internally, and publicly state it to add some teeth to it, but, state the burst rate goal as a cushion to the real goal (looking to hit real goal on time, and then in months that follow transform the burst rate goal into the sustained production rate).
i.e., to be fair the wording is not explicit, but, looks to me like those bears are taking shots at Elon for making a change in response to one of the most repeated questions these very same critics have raised about him- when will he make targets that he delivers.
Surely shorts should come here to elicit opinions disproving their theories just as longs should go to SA to see points of view contrary to their own.
If you only debate with or listen to people who agree with you, you will learn little and lose much.
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