TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[madodel]

I'd love to hear from people not in CA regarding the prevalence of Tesla sightings as I'm seeing tons of them. A few model 3's but lots of S and X .... in fact it's no longer a big deal as they are commonplace. Now I understand CA is ground zero for EVs and Tesla but how often do you see on in your neck of the woods? (exempting the one sitting in your driveway of course) ....

Even though the focus is clearly on the Model3 I won't be surprised to hear record numbers for the S and X.

Cheers to the longs

Two data points from Pennsylvania. On Sunday I went to Bethlehem, PA for a Cars and Coffee event and there were 11 of us Teslas, including 1 Model 3. That was nice but a planned event. Then I went over to the Allentown Supercharger and for the first time I have ever been there every stall was taken (Mine was the 8th and last spot, though no 3s). And after people left more stopped by to charge. I'm sure that is no big deal in Cali, but it shows people are driving them more here as well. And the closest showroom is over an hour away from there. Anyone here from Tesla, there really needs to be a service center in Allentown. They have a Maserati dealership so they could support a Tesla service center (No more showrooms allowed unless they close 1 of the 4 they are allowed by law near Philly and Pittsburgh).

Now where I live about 40 minutes north of there I rarely if ever see another Tesla. On Saturday I was showing my Sig X at our local Community College for their well attended Earth Day event and while a lot at least know what Tesla is, a surprising number still have no clue ("Is that an Infiniti?"). So there is tons of growth potential here especially for the Model 3 since this area isn't as wealthy as the Lehigh Valley, or the Philly suburbs.

 

[Todd Burch]

Capping in the $288 range today.

These shorts don't realize what's going to hit them. Clock is ticking...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Capping in the $288 range today.

These shorts don't realize what's going to hit them. Clock is ticking...

what capping? I see $289

 

[Todd Burch]

what capping? I see $289

The cap got busted .

 

[Todd Burch]

OK, so we busted through that cap once

and got shot down again.

Cap me once, shame on you.
Cap me once, shame on me.

I can't get capped again.


I'll be here all day (much to the moderator's chagrin).

 

[jhm]

I'd love to hear from people not in CA regarding the prevalence of Tesla sightings as I'm seeing tons of them. A few model 3's but lots of S and X .... in fact it's no longer a big deal as they are commonplace. Now I understand CA is ground zero for EVs and Tesla but how often do you see on in your neck of the woods? (exempting the one sitting in your driveway of course) ....

Even though the focus is clearly on the Model3 I won't be surprised to hear record numbers for the S and X.

Cheers to the longs

Teslas are quite commonplace on the streets of Atlanta. I'm seeing a lot of Model 3 in the wild now. One day I noticed two.

 

[Unpilot]

Hmmm...thinking about selling some of my alt coins to buy some more TSLA

 

[Vad42]

Teslas are quite commonplace on the streets of Atlanta. I'm seeing a lot of Model 3 in the wild now. One day I noticed two.

I saw my first 3 in the wild on Saturday in Home Depot parking lot (of all places ). Talked to the owner (I was in my S), and he said he loves it so far, and only got it that morning.

 

[elasalle]

Got to actually sit in an M3 while back.
In Tysons, DC area lots of S/X. Past week 3 times i saw M3s in the wild. After office hours, i saw 3 M3s in the wild in span of 15 mins - 2 blue, 1 red

 

[bdy0627]

Dip complete.

Way oversold. Now's a good time to buy, especially given that the factory appears to have been started up last night. My gut tells me we're now building >3,000/wk.

Nice call! I held off adding today.

 

[Todd Burch]

Nice call! I held off adding today.

To be fair, we don't know yet if we're building at 3K/wk .

 

[jbcarioca]

The market will only believe production increases are actually happening when the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker reports it and actual tracked registration data confirms it. My guess is that once both of those happen we'll probably see major gains, but there will need to be news equivalent to that. TE contract growth will be positive, but will not move SP like Model 3 production above 4,000 per week.

 

[Waiting4M3]

To be fair, we don't know yet if we're building at 3K/wk .

My guess is that the market is not going to believe 3k/wk until there is official word. Since we're ~ 1wk from Q1ER conf call on May 2nd, I think any chance of official word before then is low. But who knows, Tesla can't seem to stop leaking internal emails these days

The market will only believe production increases are actually happening when the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker reports it and actual tracked registration data confirms it. My guess is that once both of those happen we'll probably see major gains, but there will need to be news equivalent to that. TE contract growth will be positive, but will not move SP like Model 3 production above 4,000 per week.

I doubt the Bloomberg Tracker will catch up before the May 2nd Q1ER call. I'm sure we'll hear something on May 2nd.

 

[copyhacker]

I'd love to hear from people not in CA regarding the prevalence of Tesla sightings as I'm seeing tons of them. A few model 3's but lots of S and X .... in fact it's no longer a big deal as they are commonplace. Now I understand CA is ground zero for EVs and Tesla but how often do you see on in your neck of the woods? (exempting the one sitting in your driveway of course)

Non-owner in Columbia SC here. I usually see a half dozen or so S and X a week around town. Last week I was at the local Whole Foods meeting a new Model 3 owner to check out his car. While we were there we noticed another Model 3 in the parking lot. First I’d seen at random in the wild, and two in one place at that. Not too shabby.

[edit: Also with us was a third Model 3 owner who happened to be driving his Model S that day.]

 

[anon]

To be fair, we don't know yet if we're building at 3K/wk .

I think that's worth emphasising - we don't know how long it takes the line to come fully up to speed after the shutdown. There may be another week of 2k (or perhaps even lower) for fine tuning and to check that everything works correctly. Even if the daily rate reaches the equivalent of 3k/week within the next few days, I suspect that this week's total production will be well under 3k.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'd love to hear from people not in CA regarding the prevalence of Tesla sightings as I'm seeing tons of them. A few model 3's but lots of S and X .... in fact it's no longer a big deal as they are commonplace. Now I understand CA is ground zero for EVs and Tesla but how often do you see on in your neck of the woods? (exempting the one sitting in your driveway of course) ....

Even though the focus is clearly on the Model3 I won't be surprised to hear record numbers for the S and X.

Cheers to the longs

Here in Brussels, Model S are quite common. Used to be the same ones you saw from time to time and indeed I was too a rock-star for a couple of years, plus we always flashed-lights and waved to each other. Now I daily see one or two that I haven't seen before. Model X I see one per week, or so. On this front I'm still a rick-star, especially as my MX is a particularly beautiful one

No M3's of course, just You You passing through last week...

 

[Drax7]

My impression is that the factory was running three shifts at an average of 42 hours per shift per week. So 126 hours per week out of 168 hours. Adding a fourth shift would bring that up to 168 hours per week out of 168 hours per week, or a true 24/7 operation. A couple of quotes from here: Creating the Safest Car Factory in the World

"Last year, we added a third shift to reduce the overtime burden on each team member and to improve safety."
"the average amount of hours worked by production team members has dropped to about 42 hours per week"

And the fourth shift would likely only be fully operational once hiring has progressed further, I'm thinking.

You mention 3 shifts, Elon says 2 shifts, why the disparity?

 

[ggr]

I'd love to hear from people not in CA regarding the prevalence of Tesla sightings as I'm seeing tons of them. A few model 3's but lots of S and X .... in fact it's no longer a big deal as they are commonplace. Now I understand CA is ground zero for EVs and Tesla but how often do you see on in your neck of the woods? (exempting the one sitting in your driveway of course) ....

Even though the focus is clearly on the Model3 I won't be surprised to hear record numbers for the S and X.

Cheers to the longs

Mod: I think we've had enough on this subject. --ggr.

 

[Krugerrand]

I live in a rural/suburban county in VA.

In 2012, I was a rock star driving a rare car nobody had ever seen or heard of before. Never saw another Tesla on the roads here.

In 2013, I was a rock star driving a rare car nobody had ever seen before. Saw another Tesla once every 6 months on the roads here.

In 2014, I got attention but was driving a rare car many had heard of but few had ever seen before. Saw a Tesla every 3 months on the roads here.

In 2015, I got a lot of attention but was driving a car that people rarely saw around. Saw a Tesla on the roads every month or 2 here.

In 2016, I got some attention but was driving a car that people saw fairly often, though infrequently. Saw a Tesla every month here.

In 2017, I got occasional attention but was driving a car that most people had seen before. Saw a Tesla every week or so here.

In 2018, I passed another one less than a mile from my house and I see one most days of the week. (And nobody seems to care about me anymore )

You are the Rick Springfield of rock and roll.

 

[Todd Burch]

You are the Rick Springfield of rock and roll.

Now I'm just Nickelback.