I only recall one media member being allowed to ask a question of Elon during today's conference call. Usually there is none. Today it was Phil LeBeau of CNBC, and he was treated respectfully.
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I only recall one media member being allowed to ask a question of Elon during today's conference call. Usually there is none. Today it was Phil LeBeau of CNBC, and he was treated respectfully.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
@MattEnth:
The reservation conversion question was stupid, because the answer would be meaningless. It only would indicate what percentage of early reservation holders want the top end config, non-performance, RWD, but with a certain interior color. It means nothing. Just one of many configs.
Elon knows this, and the analyst is too stupid to realize it. Elon's just tired of dealing with the stupidity. Tesla has never had a demand problem. The analyst is looking for a way to manufacture one.
As for guidance past July, Tesla already gave that. Both production numbers (they expect to be at 5k/wk in about 2 months) and GM. And they already said they expect significant positive gross margins at 5k/wk.
And by the way, the Youtube questions were WAY more interesting to me as an investor. The analysts were asking questions that were either irrelevant, myopic, or already answered at some previous time.
The reservation conversion question was stupid, because the answer would be meaningless. It only would indicate what percentage of early reservation holders want the top end config, non-performance, RWD, but with a certain interior color. It means nothing. Just one of many configs.
Elon knows this, and the analyst is too stupid to realize it. Elon's just tired of dealing with the stupidity. Tesla has never had a demand problem. The analyst is looking for a way to manufacture one.
As for guidance past July, Tesla already gave that. Both production numbers (they expect to be at 5k/wk in about 2 months) and GM. And they already said they expect significant positive gross margins at 5k/wk.
And by the way, the Youtube questions were WAY more interesting to me as an investor. The analysts were asking questions that were either irrelevant, myopic, or already answered at some previous time.
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Elon actually did answer the question about when Model 3 run rate will reach 3k/week and 4k/week. He said, look at the VIN registrations. That's as straight an answer as the analyst was likely to get and I don't think anyone even realizes it yet.
hacer
Active Member
He's slow playing you. If he'd answered those questions maybe shorts would cover over the next month. By slow playing you, it will be during the Q3 earnings call when your questions are answered, and since the market is closed, no chance to meaningfully cover. Next day huge gap up with margin calls flying, positions being liquidated by brokers with gigantic losses, etc. I'm not saying that will happen that way, but if he really wanted to screw shorts over, that would be a much more fantastic screwing.
Feedback we have received from investors during the past several weeks support our view that Morgan Stanley putting out a report pontificating whether the US government would bail out Tesla as if bankruptcy was a realistic possibility on the horizon did not go over well at all. Investor confidence in Morgan Stanley's credibility in honestly analyzing Tesla and reporting on it is concerning for their viability as a voice that will be considered by investors in future discussions of Tesla.
It’s enlightening to know how analysts see themselves and from where they derive their confidence. As if they’re personally bankrolling the company.
I can't imagine any company liking it when people choose to bet against their company. Can't imagine the officers or employees like seeing that. Telsa provided guidance for 2nd Qtr and by not providing anything beyond that kind of shuts down all those out there that will only use it against them by saying later they didnt meet a projected benchmark (although I though Elon did mentioned a few later year goals they were aiming for--so maybe he thought Tony wasn't listening). Let's face it we can pretty much bet that leading up to next quarter we'll see and hear from these same analysts with another round of negative stories in one form or another. Personally I liked Elon's comments about short selling and if you don't like the volatility (which is created a lot by short sellers), then essentially go play somewhere else. He's not in it for you. He and his company are working hard to produce these EV cars to benefit so many and I totally get his attitude. With Apple's results yesterday and ALL the negative statements about them leading up to their report, I wonder how many investors who maybe got talked into selling leading up to it, felt that they got screwed by their advisors. Some of those guys admitted to their poor judgment calls (of course they always feel they can fall back and blame those supply chain people but the due diligence rests with them), but I watched one today who just didn't come off well at all on TV. Maybe time for an invesment advisor change for some.
As for the percentage invited to configure that did. What Elon did say I believe is that there were still 450,000 active reservations still out there so that should be good news to most investors ears. People have a good idea of the number of Model 3s delivered. I've deferred on my reservation, for a more expensive AWD version and if I cancel it I'll have it transferred to a Model S instead. So what does the conversion of invited really mean?
As for the percentage invited to configure that did. What Elon did say I believe is that there were still 450,000 active reservations still out there so that should be good news to most investors ears. People have a good idea of the number of Model 3s delivered. I've deferred on my reservation, for a more expensive AWD version and if I cancel it I'll have it transferred to a Model S instead. So what does the conversion of invited really mean?
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"In Q1, energy storage deployments grew 161% from Q4 2017 to 373 MWh, which includes the 129 MWh South Australia project that was installed last year with final commercial transfer occurring in Q1."
373 MWh -129 MWh = 244 MWh (373 MWh)/1.61 = 232 MWh Without the big battery, 244/232 = 105% (Was hoping for higher growth rate in core TE, especially since the big battery was awarded last July.)
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jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm starting to warm up to this view. The constraint is implementation, and Musk knows to be focused on the essentials, not distracted, right now. The big vision seems put on hold right now. It's all about ramping the Model 3.
I think the point Elon was making, and it seemed very clear to me, is that we no longer need the capital markets to reach our goals and we are tired of bending over and taking their abuse.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think I could use a big fluff bot about now. I don't care if they're high maintenance.
Texas
Member
In agreement with Elon’s point about overall safety statistics, I have an analogy to offer: it has been conclusively proven that scheduled airline travel is far safer than travel by automobile. Nevertheless, plane crashes receive lurid press coverage and trial lawyers swarm the survivors and the families of the dead. Statistically, the traveling population as a whole is better off, but the numbers don’t do your family any good if you happen to be in the plane that goes down.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Nuclear is perfectly safe until it isn't. Then it's pretty damn scary. Also all that nuclear waste. I lived within 10 miles of TMI in the 80's. Reading the evacuation plan manual they gave us showed that in the extremely rare event of a repeat catastrophe we were screwed. I'll take my Tesla Solar Roof thank you very much.
dc_h
Active Member
Enron was a bunch of people paying themselves outrageous salaries, spending 10s of thousands on dinners and producing nothing but financial pyramids. They helped rewrite California’s utility rules so they could shut down most their peaker plants and charge the state 10,000 a KWh vs 7 to 12 centavos normal market rate. Even after all their skulduggery they went bankrupt.
Tesla builds cars and has developed a global infrastructure to support electric vehicles. In 5 years they have gone from 2500 cars a year, to about 5000 cars a week now (SX and 3). The ceo has also built the worlds only/most successful space company, owning the commercial launch industry and preparing to build the worlds largest telecommunications network. These are not the endeavors of a financial charlatan.
Anyhow, I think Elon announced today that he does not intend to return to Wall Street for ANY future funding. He is tired of the Wall Street charlatans and their games. Chains can talk all he wants, Elon doesn’t need to raise money and will fund future growth internally or by large friendly investors like Tencent. If that means pushing the Y out six months, or a year, so be it.
He also announced he’s ahead of the industry in battery tech and they are maintaining or extending that lead. Also sounds like he’s ok keeping semi production low and build on volume over time. Sounds like 2019 2020 Semi will be in low thousands. Did I read too much into the unselling comment?
Anyhow, production is ramping and cash flow will start flowing the right way by July.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
That's the point. It's "scary" even though it's safer. Just like flying is safer than driving or autopilot is safer than no autopilot. Humans are irrational.
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