TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

Bought some shares at $278,36. Missed the immediate MMD low, but this seemed good enough.

Loved the call, btw. Elon is just saying: stick with me and TSLA and I'll take care of you in the long run.

 

[Big Earl]

I bought the dip this morning. $279.50.

Great times are ahead!

 

[Todd Burch]

Going to make another prediction. Today might be the lowest TSLA share price for many, many years to come.

 

[jeewee3000]

Elon's attitude in the call had an immediate effect on analysts behaviour already. From the call: (after the Youtuber section)

Benjamin Joseph Kallo - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

Hey, Elon. So I remember the Baron story, I don't know if it was fake news or not, what you hung up on about your battery costs. And I don't want to ask a mundane question, but I think it's important because one of your stakeholders are shareholders right now, and so far we've had a couple of push-outs in production. Is there a way that you can update us when you get to that 3,000 number or 4,000 number per week?
(emphasis mine)

They're already putting disclaimers up front . Comedy.

 

[Richard007]

Just bought 25 shares $276.xx

 

[jeewee3000]

Going to make another prediction. Today might be the lowest TSLA share price for many, many years to come.

Would love that but let's be honest: we've said that before on this board and it was never true.

The one thing we know about $TSLA stock price is its volatility. I expect it to be volatile even when it is at $1500 a share.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Two explanations for this:

First, this is largely not an A team of analysts. A stronger group will come once Tesla has GAAP profits.

Second, quarterly earnings conference calls inevitably focus on small financial metric changes with short term implications. These are of questionable relevance to what the sp of TSLA should be, which is largely based on long term opportunities and risks. Elon is right to find these questions “boring” (but he needs to keep his pique in check.)

I agree on all counts. Tesla stock should be priced based on new innovations and ability to execute. In other words, the kind of questions that the YouTube guy asked. Unless you are worried Tesla is going to run out of cash (which, given their team, is silly), focusing on esoteric changes in accounting between quarters is completely missing the point.

The only non-product question that has me worried is the actual stock price. If it falls a lot, to say around sub $200/share, then we are getting close to margin call territory when the bankers that have loaned Elon $4B will auto sell Tesla stock. Sub $200 means institutional investors will start dumping since they are worried about the margin call, then that’ll drive the stock price down to margin call territory (about $120/share). Yeah, I know, unlikely, but as I said, that’s the only thing that has me worried.

 

[Todd Burch]

Would love that but let's be honest: we've said that before on this board and it was never true.

The one thing we know about $TSLA stock price is its volatility. I expect it to be volatile even when it is at $1500 a share.

I said it when we were in the $250s in March. That's still true. My point is that all the dirty laundry is now aired. And there are scores of positive catalysts coming up.

 

[elasalle]

Are we in "dip on Steroids" mode, because the overall market is also all RED today ...

 

[Todd Burch]

Augkuo reports from a factory worker that Tesla hit 400 M3s in a day on Monday. (2800/wk). Sounds about right.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I suspect an email may "leak" when they hit 4000/week. Maybe even at 3000!

 

[justvisiting]

The very question implies EPS should be tied to share price. Old school.

is that serious? history is really repeating itself.

 

[corduroy]

Tried to resist but couldn't help myself. Added more at $277.50

 

[gillfoto]

Just put deposit down on my Tesla 3.

 

[Todd Burch]

is that serious? history is really repeating itself.

Why do people keep asking me if I'm serious?

Of course I'm fricking serious. Don't confuse a growth company with a company at maturity.

PE is only a reasonable evaluation when a company has reached maturity. C'mon dude. It's common sense. People invest for the future. Massively growing companies (i.e. Amazon, Tesla) show profit later, but stock rise often precedes it.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Augkuo reports from a factory worker that Tesla hit 400 M3s in a day on Monday. (2800/wk). Sounds about right.

Sounds about right, since last night, 4 new VINs from the 4/5 batch are assigned, VIN chart from Troy's sheet below:
Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version

 

[mongo]

10 million shares traded at 2 hours in...
Autoscalling volume charts don't do it justice...

 

[Bobbyducati]

cant see this dip holding long. definitely not happy about how the call went, but worse things have happened. just continue to hold. puts i wrote yesterday have paid off as well

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think it might last through the weekend. Most funds will likely take their time analyzing the numbers in detail before doing anything. There was a 5% dip last May after the con call IIRC, and it took a few days to recover.

 

[Bobbyducati]

I think it might last through the weekend. Most funds will likely take their time analyzing the numbers in detail before doing anything. There was a 5% dip last May after the con call IIRC, and it took a few days to recover.

sounds about right to me.