TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[traxila]

Everything correlates back to the macro, seems like US and China is starting their trade talk, hopefully there's no fallout in that.

Even though I've been a long term "Elon is a god and nothing he ever does will undermine my faith" bull, but to be honest, I did not like the call. One thing you learn as you enter the workforce or society in life, sometimes the hard way, is that you never burn your bridges, especially on wall street. No matter how many tricks you've got up your sleeves, you just don't put the screw on the analysts. Apple has hundreds of billions in the bank and yet you don't see them giving the middle fingers to the wall street. You just never know when you are going to need their help. Retail investors are a diamond dozen with at most a tens of millions per individual to invest in the market, they do not have a sway in the market whatsoever. Warming up to them may get more people to buy the cars but if you need money to make the cars, retail investors are not going to be as much help as the investment firms. I know Tesla and Elon has been putting up with wall street's BS for too long, be that as it may, this is the worst timing to give them the middle finger.

Luckily I have sold about half of my holding slowly into the earnings, I may scoop up some shares today, but I'm going to wait and see first.

This would be true...if Elon really needed to tap the markets again soon. He says he is done with that for now. If he is wrong then perhaps he has lost touch and this may be the beginning of the end. Or he is right and all these self important idiots who are on an outsized basis responsible for the state of the world can go blow. And trust me, if the time is right to tap the markets again, these same firms and people will be falling all over themselves to provide coin.

Do you really think the SP would be behaving differently if he had toed the line like a good boy and assuaged his self-appointed masters? Do you think the headlines would be spun any differently? We would not have stories about how Musk was 'evasive' on cash position questions? Or that the only thing that can save Tesla now would be for Musk to resign (LOLOLOLOL that is the best one. Either that cat is so stupendously dumb that he needs to be listened to at all times for entertainment value, or he is a bald faced liar bear of the most unctuous type).

You are here to make money and I hope you succeed. But don't drink the Kool Aid from the WS analyst community. And yes Jobs gave plenty of middle fingers to Wall Street. If he had not banked cash off of Apple's initial successes the company would have been liquidated in the 90s when he was not around and WS would have danced on its grave. I hope Musk has the same wisdom if he is correct about profits showing up, because this battle will never be over and war chests unfortunately are required for the future.

 

[jhm]

How much EPS does TSLA have to make to justify a share price of >300 ?

$(11.83) would suffice.

 

[bdy0627]

Going to make another prediction. Today might be the lowest TSLA share price for many, many years to come.

Holy smokes! I didn't realize how much the shorts are showing up here until I saw the list of 5 calling this post funny. I guess my ignore list has been keeping me pleasantly in the dark. Have we ever had this many shorts around and not seen the share price rocket up over the next few months?

 

[Iceman]

have a feeling this will be fairly uneventful as far as tesla ER go

Yeah... about that..

 

[Big Earl]

Pulled the trigger again at $275.50.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Wall Street is angry that Tesla will not be borrowing money. When Tesla had to drink from their trough they could slow the rate of Tesla growth to preserve their stranded assets that Tesla was disrupting. That was the old paradigm model for a company dependent upon Wall Street, and until the 2nd Iraq war Wall Street called all of the shots on who would win and who would lose, and could even control just how long that would take. But then China bought US debt, and China became a heavy player on Wall Street. And Wall Street became dependent upon a quiet partner that it could not control or predict.

And now there is a much bigger market for Tesla in perhaps the only place that can bully Wall Street, in a country with no unnecessary limits imposed on its renewable energy growth, and a country that has changed its own laws to support bringing Tesla manufacturing and thus cheaper Tesla products on a massive scale to its own soil. When the US and Wall Street tried to slow renewable energy growth With ridiculous tariffs on Chinese solar, and by screwing Tesla with FUD, China simply opened its arms and the workd’s biggest market to Tesla. So in a way, both Elon and China have given the finger to Wall Street. And since Wall Street is dependent upon China, I think the backlash from Elon’s behavior last night won’t get too far out of hand. In fact, in many ways it was a tuning up of Wall Street by the new Bigger kid on the block - as the new paradigm was dropped on them in a not too gentle way. They deserved it. And I like Elon’s new really Big friend across the ocean.

This is the best I’ve read today, you should publish this somewhere where it has more visibility.

 

[bdy0627]

I agree on all counts. Tesla stock should be priced based on new innovations and ability to execute. In other words, the kind of questions that the YouTube guy asked. Unless you are worried Tesla is going to run out of cash (which, given their team, is silly), focusing on esoteric changes in accounting between quarters is completely missing the point.

The only non-product question that has me worried is the actual stock price. If it falls a lot, to say around sub $200/share, then we are getting close to margin call territory when the bankers that have loaned Elon $4B will auto sell Tesla stock. Sub $200 means institutional investors will start dumping since they are worried about the margin call, then that’ll drive the stock price down to margin call territory (about $120/share). Yeah, I know, unlikely, but as I said, that’s the only thing that has me worried.

I'm curious how far down the stock could be manipulated if some deep pockets were determined. Even though the short interest is already massive, couldn't it just become even more massive, inevitably manipulating the stock much lower?

 

[NicoV]

I did my share and bought some shares, increasing my position by about 10%, which increases my average purchase price to about 200 dollar.
They can pry those shares from my cold dead hands....

 

[jelloslug]

Holy smokes! I didn't realize how much the shorts are showing up here until I saw the list of 5 calling this post funny. I guess my ignore list has been keeping me pleasantly in the dark. Have we ever had this many shorts around and not seen the share price rocket up over the next few months?

They will wander off soon enough...

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Picked up 100 shares at 277.

 

[jeewee3000]

I did my share and bought some shares, increasing my position by about 10%, which increases my average purchase price to about 200 dollar.
They can pry those shares from my cold dead hands....

I'd prefer it if you lived and bought more on regular basis.

 

[SSonnentag]

I bought 8 shares. Wheeeeee! Gotta start somewhere.

 

[Richgoogol]

This would be true...if Elon really needed to tap the markets again soon. He says he is done with that for now. If he is wrong then perhaps he has lost touch and this may be the beginning of the end. Or he is right and all these self important idiots who are on an outsized basis responsible for the state of the world can go blow. And trust me, if the time is right to tap the markets again, these same firms and people will be falling all over themselves to provide coin.

Do you really think the SP would be behaving differently if he had toed the line like a good boy and assuaged his self-appointed masters? Do you think the headlines would be spun any differently? We would not have stories about how Musk was 'evasive' on cash position questions? Or that the only thing that can save Tesla now would be for Musk to resign (LOLOLOLOL that is the best one. Either that cat is so stupendously dumb that he needs to be listened to at all times for entertainment value, or he is a bald faced liar bear of the most unctuous type).

You are here to make money and I hope you succeed. But don't drink the Kool Aid from the WS analyst community. And yes Jobs gave plenty of middle fingers to Wall Street. If he had not banked cash off of Apple's initial successes the company would have been liquidated in the 90s when he was not around and WS would have danced on its grave. I hope Musk has the same wisdom if he is correct about profits showing up, because this battle will never be over and war chests unfortunately are required for the future.

Thank you for this. I appreciate this view very much and appreciate the fact that you taking time to talk some sense into me. I was getting a bit overwhelmed this morning.

 

[NicoV]

I'd prefer it if you lived and bought more on regular basis.

I already did the buying on a regular basis in the past.
BTW, I want to thank the shorts for the buying opportunity of a lifetime when they thought that the merger with Solarcity would mean the end of Tesla.

 

[bdy0627]

Apparently, more shorts have joined the party now, pulling this rubber band down even further. Man do they get their timing wrong.

 

[Unpilot]

Man I wish I had more powder!

 

[Tenable]

I've added September, J19, M19 and J20 calls.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I bought 8 shares. Wheeeeee! Gotta start somewhere.

Hey, for some of us, 8-12 shares is everything we have! LOL!

Dan

 

[Iceman]

Man I wish I had more powder!

I´m sitting on about 500 shares worth of powder if I liquidate my AMZN and NVDA.

I don´t know whether to pull or when tho. And I´m already heavily exposed to TSLA as a fraction of my worth.

But the future seems bright so I should be fine doing it since I have . But if something happens...... Ahhh fcuk me twice!

 

[phil0909]

Your lack of understanding on explosive growth and future cash flows is telling. Stick to value plays where you can debate P/E ratios and cash on balance sheets. Better yet stick around and short some more. I recommend a highly levered position. You want to make money after all. And this is a hog of a stock.

Earnings? Earnings? We don't need no stinking earnings!