TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mader Levap]

No paid fudsters can answer the bolded question. If they do, they end their job because they must answer it honestly or they are breaking the law.

Uhh, these FUDsters have no problem with lying left and right about Tesla, but they have to be truthful when someone asks "are you paid shill"? What a strange logic. Reminds me of freemans of land.

Or they can ignore it. But no one posts all memorial day weekend who is not being paid to do so. I think it's a waste of fudsters funding to post here, but oh well.

It is very, very silly to think there are any paid shills here.

Why?

It is simple. Payoff is too small (as you correctly said, it would be waste). Why one would shill on small niche Tesla forum full of fans and fanatics, when you can propagandise on facebook, twitter, reddit and other communities with very high visibility?

In other words, not everyone writing things that you do not like is paid for it. In fact it is very unlikely if we are speaking about this forum.

 

[keydiver]

Let's hope. We need to educate our youth early on about recycling, climate change, pollution, etc., so that it becomes a habit at a young age.

I don't know, I don't think they are teaching the kids in my local school district enough about polution. Most of them are driving jacked up diesel pickups that take great pleasure in rolling coal on me.

 

[Lessmog]

Uhh, these FUDsters have no problem with lying left and right about Tesla, but they have to be truthful when someone asks "are you paid shill"? What a strange logic. Reminds me of freemans of land.



It is very, very silly to think there are any paid shills here.

Why?

It is simple. Payoff is too small (as you correctly said, it would be waste). Why one would shill on small niche Tesla forum full of fans and fanatics, when you can propagandise on facebook, twitter, reddit and other communities with very high visibility?

In other words, not everyone writing things that you do not like is paid for it. In fact it is very unlikely if we are speaking about this forum.

One need not exlude the other.
What does it cost to post a message here? If someone paid let's say $500 an hour for the job there would be many takers, don't you think?
On the other side, what is it worth to Big Oil, Big Auto, Big Bank, Big Media etc to impede Tesla even a little, even for a time?
And as long as they pay, why not duplicate the "product" on those other channels you seem to know more about?

 

[Jayjs20]

What was your forecasted price for the stock at what date when you bought the option?

I've bought a bunch of call options throughout this dip, thinking they'll jump quick once we recover. The plan was to wait until maybe 320-330, then convert them to J20s. I have a healthy number of J20s from previous buys. But given the number of times it's bounced off the ceiling of around 310, it's getting increasingly frustrating as time goes on to the point where I'm tempted to convert next time it hits 310.

 

[jhm]

I agree with that and thence my belief that IF some deposits were waived the fact would not be disclosed.

Then, you are then arguing about something that cannot be falsified, but only confirmed with a violation of confidentiality. Thus, it is a not-empirical waste of time to speculate about and in this instance would have no bearing on the value of reservations. You might as well be speculating about whether Elon has an NDA with a porn actress who is content to sit on a pile of Tesla stock. Such a belief would could never falsified, but only confirmed in the case of breach of confidentiality. So if you want to stay on the good side of empirical thinking, you're better off assuming that no undisclosed reservations are free and Elon does not have an NDA with a porn actress.

Karl Popper - Wikipedia

 

[Mader Levap]

One need not exlude the other. What does it cost to post a message here?

If it is not bot, then a lot. And bots are easily detected by humans (so far, future is bleak in this regard) so on heavily moderated forum like this one they have snowman's chances in hell.

If someone paid let's say $500 an hour for the job there would be many takers, don't you think?

There won't be anyone paying 500$/hour to troll here in first place. Same 500$ will be spend elsewhere, where it will have greater effect.

On the other side, what is it worth to Big Oil, Big Auto, Big Bank, Big Media etc to impede Tesla even a little, even for a time? And as long as they pay, why not duplicate the "product" on those other channels you seem to know more about?

I have impression (maybe wrong, but this is how your insistence looks for me) that you really want opposing opinions to be paid, and thus easy to dismiss.

I don't even understand why you feel need for that, they are easily dismissable on their own merits already. Example?

I personally think "Tesla will have problems with demand [implying bankwuptcy any year now] because new reservations are picked up slower than they are converted or removed, nevermind that by that logic traditional carmakers would be bankrupt already since they have exactly zero reservations and no new ones coming" was best one lately.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Then, you are then arguing about something that cannot be falsified, but only confirmed with a violation of confidentiality. Thus, it is a not-empirical waste of time to speculate about and in this instance would have no bearing on the value of reservations. You might as well be speculating about whether Elon has an NDA with a porn actress who is content to sit on a pile of Tesla stock. Such a belief would could never falsified, but only confirmed in the case of breach of confidentiality. So if you want to stay on the good side of empirical thinking, you're better off assuming that no undisclosed reservations are free and Elon does not have an NDA with a porn actress.

Karl Popper - Wikipedia

You're right that a lot of this is speculation. I wish they would disclose the reservations breakdown. It would be very helpful and I am wondering what they gain by keeping it secret.

 

[wipster]

I don't know, I don't think they are teaching the kids in my local school district enough about polution. Most of them are driving jacked up diesel pickups that take great pleasure in rolling coal on me.

Yep, that's what I was afraid of...

 

[Curt Renz]

Today's close:

-4.1% Fiat Chrysler
-2.4% General Motors
-0.6% Ford
+1.8% Tesla

 

[Lessmog]

Well, pavel, it appears you know the going price better than me ... goodnight.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Pollution....
Pollution will become as socially unacceptable as smoking or drink-driving is today.

Yes!

 

[Waiting4M3]

They're leasing them, not buying.

I personally think that FCH is a good solution for vehicles with very regular and fixed routes, this way you can have re-filling facilities at a limited number of depots - so for town busses I think there's a decent use-case for them.

Regard trucks on regular roads, then I feel batteries are far superior due to the charging flexibility.

In a case of a very regular and fixed routes, where hydrogen refilling facilities could be built, wouldn't EV charging facility also be possible? for cheaper cost and less permitting issues?

The physics 1st principle advantage of hydrogen is lower weight for same energy, and faster refilling time.

The lower weight advantage only shows up when you have very long distance driving. As Tesla has already reached 500 mi, FC vehicles will need to go at 1000 mi to differentiate based on this advantage.

Faster refilling time reduces idle time. Again idle time only comes into play when round the clock operation is needed, otherwise one can always recharge/refill when the vehicle is off-duty.

I think town buses don't seem to fit either of these criteria.

 

[Waiting4M3]

<snip>
Finally ask yourself who does profit from Hydrogen? Its the Oil&Gas and car Industry again. They could stick to the old paradigm of expensive complex vehicles with explosive gas and complex drive train that needs maintenance.

I called it dead at start years ago and did not find a reason why that has changed.

It did struck me that Toyota did/does stick with it that long.

Technical feasibility aside, if Toyota and oil/gas industry really had the best interest of the planet/environment/people in mind and wanted to make FCV work ASAP, and they tried as hard as Elon had with Tesla/SpaceX, they would've been much further alone. But instead they want to use FCV as a hedge/PR tool for as long as possible, while continuing to profit from ICE cars and gas.

Just imagine if Elon had actually preferred FCV technology, how quickly he would build refilling infrastructures, create hydrogen production process/facility that can mass produce at low cost. He wouldn't tip-toe in and wait for economy of scale to come to him. He would do everything he could to create the economy of scale to drive down the cost.

 

[wipster]

Just imagine if Elon had actually preferred FCV technology, how quickly he would build refilling infrastructures, create hydrogen production process/facility that can mass produce at low cost. He wouldn't tip-toe in and wait for economy of scale to come to him. He would do everything he could to create the economy of scale to drive down the cost.

Thank goodness he had more sense than that...

 

[Reciprocity]

Unfortunately I am not getting paid. But if anyone is feeling generous, I am certainly open to it.

Then you are in the desperately underwater camp. Got it. Good to know.

 

[bdy0627]

I've bought a bunch of call options throughout this dip, thinking they'll jump quick once we recover. The plan was to wait until maybe 320-330, then convert them to J20s. I have a healthy number of J20s from previous buys. But given the number of times it's bounced off the ceiling of around 310, it's getting increasingly frustrating as time goes on to the point where I'm tempted to convert next time it hits 310.

Yes, perhaps consider selling some of the shorter dated options with a substantial bounce into the low $300s. Sell enough that if the stock dips again, you'll have pocketed some profits and have dry powder to add on the dip. But, don't sell so many that you end up frustrated if the stock takes off. What works well for me is generally to do things in 4 or even 5 tranches when I am buying and selling. That keeps me from being overly frustrated either way. I sold stock and bought calls on the dip as well. I've already sold some calls on some of the bounces, but I still have quite a few. I've found for me, it works best to hold calls I am using for trading for just a few weeks to capture even a modest climb, and then convert back to a comfortable ratio of shares to LEAPs. Obviously though, there are lots of strategies. Generally, the longer you hold calls, the more it favors the dealer (MM).

 

[2virgule5]

Just imagine if Elon had actually preferred FCV technology, how quickly he would build refilling infrastructures, create hydrogen production process/facility that can mass produce at low cost. He wouldn't tip-toe in and wait for economy of scale to come to him. He would do everything he could to create the economy of scale to drive down the cost.

Think of all the fires/explosions headlines!!!

 

[neroden]

Petroleum based cars would never be approved today!

Hilariously, they were banned in Britain by law very early on -- a law which banned all cars which generated exhaust -- but judges created a loophole by allowing for cars where the "smoke" was invisible. Out of sight, out of mind, I guess.

 

[neroden]

InsideEvs does U.S. only though, so it won’t include Canadian.

Q2 really depends on whether or not Tesla is avoiding 200k.

@Troy is convinced they’ve already hit that, and he has crunched the numbers. Everyone else seems to think they’re waiting for Q3.

I would be surprised if Tesla had already hit 200K. The mass deliveries to Canada seem to imply an effort to wait for Q3. Did Troy remember that the first year of Roadster production doesn't count towards the 200K?

 

[neroden]

I'm a monthly parker next to the fabulous Fox Theater. When there is an event, the price to park usually goes up for daily parkers and I stand a good chance of finding a parking spot. But sometimes management does not anticipate an even and does not raise the daily rate. When that happens to lot fills up quickly, and I have no place to park in spite of have paid for monthly parking. I have learned the hard way that the parking price is really important to making sure that there are available parking spots. The daily parking price makes my monthly pass more valuable.

So why does this matter to Tesla reservation holders? What is the value of a reservation? It simply holds your place in line against against others who might crowd you out. If Tesla were to offer free reservations to some, but not others, it would devalue reservations for anyone considering one. If those how came before you were given free reservations, then the line is already longer than it would have been had all reservation holders had to pay. The longer the line is ahead of you, the less value your reservation holds. Moreover, you might be inclined to think that if other people got free reservations, perhaps you deserve a free reservation too. The thing that makes the reservation worth the deposit is that you know that the deposit is required of all other reservation holders. If the reservation is not worth the deposit, then you wait and allow all others who are willing to make the deposit to jump a head of you.

At some point you may see that your competitors are getting rigs that give them a 25c/mile cost advantage over you, you may appreciate that getting a reservation is worth the cost. So when Tesla does start building Semis, the value of a reservation could go back up as to back log grows. Tesla will want to be able to command a $20k deposit on reservations at that time too.

I suspect Musk understands this quite well and would not countenance a policy that would undermine the value of reservation. Sorry, bears, there's no such thing as free parking next to the Fox Theater.

... except for Fox Theater employees.

Tesla gets to jump the queue for Tesla Semis, and this is certainly an advantage for Tesla...