TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[anon]

It seems the latest firmware is rolling out much faster than usual, from reports on the Model S TMC forum. This firmware has significantly more frequent AP nags.

If I remember correctly, Tesla released a big AP update with a much faster rollout than usual around the time of the NHTSA report into the first fatal crash, as that update increased the frequency of AP nags. I am therefore wondering if NHTSA's report on the latest fatal crash is imminent.

If so, it might be like last time - they might find that Tesla autopilot is partly to blame for not nagging enough, but perhaps might conclude that it is ok again now that Tesla has updated it. This will probably make for negative headlines though.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It seems the latest firmware is rolling out much faster than usual, from reports on the Model S TMC forum. This firmware has significantly more frequent AP nags.

If I remember correctly, Tesla released a big AP update with a much faster rollout than usual around the time of the NHTSA report into the first fatal crash, as that update increased the frequency of AP nags. I am therefore wondering if NHTSA's report on the latest fatal crash is imminent.

If so, it might be like last time - they might find that Tesla autopilot is partly to blame for not nagging enough, but perhaps might conclude that it is ok again now that Tesla has updated it. This will probably make for negative headlines though.

I thought NTSB is investigating the MountainView crash, not NHTSA. NTSB just released a preliminary report with facts but no conclusion last week and said that a full report could take a year.

Also NHTSA is the agency that actually has power to regulate. NTSB can only issue guidelines/recommendations but can't actually make anyone do anything.

 

[anon]

Both NHTSA and NTSB are investigating.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Both NHTSA and NTSB are investigating.

Link? I can't find any info on NHTSA investigating this.

 

[anon]

Link? I can't find any info on NHTSA investigating this.

NHTSA sending team to investigate fatal Tesla crash

 

[AZRI11]

Here's some consolation for Tesla short sellers and weak longs:

Love boat for the long and strong.

 

[mltv]

I like to look at quarterly and monthly $TSLA chart over a 100 year time frame which compresses the chart and gives me a bird eye perspective on where the stock is headed. I must say it looks extremely bullish. now zoom in to 50 year time frame and you'll see a quarterly bullish engulfing candle with super high volume in that this is on track of being the highest volume candle in the last 17 quarters!
daily chart it is already walking the Bollinger similar to what $AMD did last month leading me to believe that a 30% rise in SP at a minimum is in store for $TSLA over the next month so I'm looking at $400 plus easy on the conservative side
the singular inescapable conclusion is that $TSLA is about to have an inevitable Bollinger breakout which would be not for the squeamish/faint of heart. it shall take SP into stratospheric uncharted territory with a resounding and unequivocal decimation of short sellers' position. Elon was very serious when he warned the short sellers.
I am 160% leveraged on my stock position and 300% leveraged on my calls and fully intend to remain so for the foreseeable future
a common mistake that investors make is underestimating the power of a strongly trending high beta momentum stock and selling too early and regret at leisure.
the rich are not like you and me.
similarly, high beta momentum liquid glamours like $TSLA are not like your average common stock. these are rare finds and demand respect and forbearance. I therefore advocate considerable caution in selling too soon lest woe, regret and lamentation descend upon the hasty trader.
seller be beware
I rest my case

Funny I sold my AMD shares on 3/26 at $10.26/share, to buy TSLA and NVDA. I got tired of that dog keep going down when there really so much going for it. I guess the bears got me - pretty much demoralized me.

 

[bdy0627]

A weak long wouldn't have his entire life's savings in TSLA call options, sit around and watch the SP crash 140 dollars without selling.

I'm just trying to be smarter about this. Sell into strength. Never sell due to weakness.

There is something to be said for selling high (er) and buying low (er). Obviously, you will get lots of opinions about how to do this here, and you get what you pay for. Ultimately, do what feels right to you in terms of leverage. How high/low is up to each individual. I'm very happy with the profits TSLA has given over the last few months. I'm way up from where I was 9 months ago and I'm investing some of those profits into the company's product (model X) for my wife. I'm definitely not selling my core stock or LEAPs. I'm very happy to see it go up from here and have no problem with a drop either.

 

[GBleck]

Funny I sold my AMD shares on 3/26 at $10.26/share, to buy TSLA and NVDA. I got tired of that dog keep going down when there really so much going for it. I guess the bears got me - pretty much demoralized me.

Ha! Beat you. Sold at 10.22 on 3/26. Meh. Prefer NVDA and Tesla long term more anyway.

 

[SteveG3]

I can see the validity in that, it just feels half hearted. At the end of the day, the question to ask is: Will we see sub-330 again? I just think that there's a good chance we will.

I think the question is are we at fair value, above, or below.

To my view we’ve gone from 40-50% below fair value in April and May to about 35% below fair value now. Selling core shares here makes no more sense to me now than it did in 2013 when we went from $45 to $90 in a few weeks because I thought the stock was still quite undervalued despite the stock price’s rise seeming dizzying. Didn’t sell a single core share.

Trading shares are another story. I add in staggered steps when I think we are deep in a swoon and unwind those positions on a rebound. I don’t try to predict such a swoon... I see that as betting on black or red, but, I keep trading share dry powder available for when the roulette wheel offers me silly cheap prices (including very modest use of margin at times).

I’m now out of the trading shares I’d added from $321 down to the $250s over the past few months... ready to reload or enjoy being done with this round of steep discounts.

 

[sundaymorning]

My take on today’s stock price:

Today’s increase in stock price was largely due to Elon’s comment on Full Self Driving capabilities being release in August. Let’s revisit what Elon has been saying lately about AP prior to last weekend: once AP data is collected for deep learning are completed, then the Tesla’s Neural Net system will make very fast improvements to AP. The slowest part to Tesla developing FSD capability is of course data collection, which by now has likely resulted in hundreds of millions or even billions of miles driven on AP. I used to think that level 3 might take 2 more years to accomplish, but it appears that Tesla has written its own software so that their neural net system, with the help of AI, is able to read the millions/billions of data and create its own algorithm to develop FSD capabilities. What this means is that Tesla engineers have figured out a way for AI to code algorithms for FSD. This news is huge and shows how far ahead Tesla’s moat really is. Due to their data, Tesla could very well be ahead of the entire field of AP/Autonomous contenders. Afterall, even Google doesn’t have the same number of fleets on the road as Tesla (which is why they are spending about $2 billion to acquire Jaguar EVs to install lidar/camera system for deep learning). Google’s learning curve will be expensive and will also take much more time to collect data compared to Tesla, which has over 300,000 cars on the road and growing everyday. Right now my belief is that Google is writing AP software for small incremental advances due to its small fleet, whereas Tesla is using AI to “stack” data from deep learning and as a result producing codes at a very fast pace. I think that if Elon/Tesla can roll out a successful FSD level 3 capability soon, they will prove to the world that this company is way undervalued by at least $10-$20 billion (based on Mobile eye being worth $15 billion 1-2 years ago).

The FSD capability should not be under estimated, it’s a huge moat if it can work, even for Highway on ramp offramp.. for this reason I am very excited to see what hey roll out in August/September. Stay tuned.

 

[mltv]

Ha! Beat you. Sold at 10.22 on 3/26. Meh. Prefer NVDA and Tesla long term more anyway.

True. AMD gainnings is mostly due to INTC did nothing of note for years.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I guess my cover is blown. The Koch brothers had a baby, together, and I am that baby.

The immaculate incomprehension. (see what I did there all you Steeler fans?) LOL!

Dan

 

[TradingInvest]

Funny I sold my AMD shares on 3/26 at $10.26/share, to buy TSLA and NVDA. I got tired of that dog keep going down when there really so much going for it. I guess the bears got me - pretty much demoralized me.

I have seen this on several stocks in the past. Don't be fooled by the bears. Many of them are paid bashers, they don't even have a position. Their job is to make you sell or reduce. They don't really have a valid argument, they just keep arguing anyway, until the weak hands all sold, and strong hands reduced significantly. Sometimes there are stock promoters too, they promote those worthless stocks, don't be fooled by them either.

 

[sundaymorning]

More news like these will eventually up Tesla awareness:

Germany Orders Daimler to Recall 774,000 Diesels in Europe

German ministry says 774,000 Mercedes cars contain unauthorized software

Germany hits Mercedes with mass diesel recall (Update)

These guys are playing innocent till the very end:

Unlike VW, which admitted duping official emissions tests and faces costs of some 26 billion euros ($31 billion) in fines, buybacks and recalls globally, Daimler has rejected wrongdoing.

 

[Papafox]

I like to look at quarterly and monthly $TSLA chart over a 100 year time frame which compresses the chart and gives me a bird eye perspective on where the stock is headed. I must say it looks extremely bullish. now zoom in to 50 year time frame and you'll see a quarterly bullish engulfing candle with super high volume in that this is on track of being the highest volume candle in the last 17 quarters!
daily chart it is already walking the Bollinger similar to what $AMD did last month leading me to believe that a 30% rise in SP at a minimum is in store for $TSLA over the next month so I'm looking at $400 plus easy on the conservative side
the singular inescapable conclusion is that $TSLA is about to have an inevitable Bollinger breakout which would be not for the squeamish/faint of heart. it shall take SP into stratospheric uncharted territory with a resounding and unequivocal decimation of short sellers' position. Elon was very serious when he warned the short sellers.
I am 160% leveraged on my stock position and 300% leveraged on my calls and fully intend to remain so for the foreseeable future
a common mistake that investors make is underestimating the power of a strongly trending high beta momentum stock and selling too early and regret at leisure.
the rich are not like you and me.
similarly, high beta momentum liquid glamours like $TSLA are not like your average common stock. these are rare finds and demand respect and forbearance. I therefore advocate considerable caution in selling too soon lest woe, regret and lamentation descend upon the hasty trader.
seller be beware
I rest my case

Hang in there TT007. A million here, half a million there, after a while it adds up to some real money!

 

[Jayjs20]

Do you think there is a good chance we will see $320 before we see $350? I think we will see $350 1st, and may consider deleveraging there, converting some LEAP to shares

Not a clue. The only thing I know for sure is that it's impossible to predict short term movement and it's impossible to predict the highest peak or lowest dip. As someone who's doubled, then halfed his money 3 times in the last 6 months, I'm just happy to be back in 'doubled' status.

 

[bdy0627]

Not a clue. The only thing I know for sure is that it's impossible to predict short term movement and it's impossible to predict the highest peak or lowest dip. As someone who's doubled, then halfed his money 3 times in the last 6 months, I'm just happy to be back in 'doubled' status.

I agree, though I would add that IMO it's actually much easier to predict where the stock will likely go after it drops 20%+ compared with after it climbs 20%+. In either case, it's probably not wise to ignore the odds of a pullback/reversal reasonably soon. Sentiment and technical analysis can be helpful guides, but history also often repeats. Historically, we've had 55 climbs of more than 10% since 2012. 35 of the climbs (64%) reversed after a gain of 25% and 39 (71%) by 30%. That leaves a reasonably high number of climbs that gained more than 30%, and several have climbed 90%+ before reversing. Our last big climb without a significant reversal was 61% in early 2017. We are due for another one like that if not bigger, but I'm not personally comfortable betting on it at this point with my trading shares/calls. They've done their job getting to this point with relatively low to moderate risk. Now it's time for my core position to pull its weight. To be honest, it hasn't done all that much for me for quite some time. That core holding is there precisely for the fairly rare long climbs that happen but that you can't predict. That's where you get the long term growth of the stock, which again is what the core holding is for.

Edit: Forgot to mention, this climb is currently at 22.3% with the high of $334 today up from the low of $273 on 5/22.

 

[SPadival]

333

There used to be a short who obsessed over the share price ending number 3 (or was it 6?). He would have wet his pants today.

 

[pz1975]

There used to be a short who obsessed over the share price ending number 3 (or was it 6?). He would have wet his pants today.

It was 6 but I think it was just an elaborate troll job.