TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

$TSLA Doing exactly what $AMD did over the last 2 months which means SP headed to $450 to $500 over the next couple months

It means exactly nothing.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

How did Tesla change their VIN practices? I'm looking at the VINs being reported as assigned to buyers and they look really low. Have they changed the timing of when they give them out?

They changed it few weeks ago, so that VIN is assigned shortly before delivery. There was discussion around that. I speculate that has lead to lesser interest in reporting it, so I've written off that as an early indicator. I just look at deliveries now, and I didn't see volume pickup. But I didn't see much slowdown either, as VINs would otherwise indicate... I'm guessing 6000+ deliveries per month last two months. I intentionally try to guess low to not be disappointed Troy's website extrapolates quite a bit higher number

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Sentiment is getting strongly positive around here again. That used to be a pretty good contrarian indicator. It's probably not a bad idea to have sold some or even most trading shares/calls at this point. IMO the risk is increasing for a pullback. Because of the current dynamics around the stock, the pullback could be pretty significant. Or, it could just keep on running. There is no way to know. I know I'm more comfortable at this point dialing my leverage back and focusing on my long term holding.

I try to be similarly cautious, but I expect to hit at least 340-345 range, that seems to have been a band where many fights were fought. There will be lots of supply there. Otherwise, momentum (I believe) works now for bulls.
If I had huge leveraged position would I wait for 340? No way! I'd be selling in tranches on the way up

 

[Mike Smith]

They changed it few weeks ago, so that VIN is assigned shortly before delivery. There was discussion around that. I speculate that has lead to lesser interest in reporting it, so I've written off that as an early indicator. I just look at deliveries now, and I didn't see volume pickup. But I didn't see much slowdown either, as VINs would otherwise indicate... I'm guessing 6000+ deliveries per month last two months. I intentionally try to guess low to not be disappointed Troy's website extrapolates quite a bit higher number

Thanks, I wasn't aware of this. Do you remember where it was that this was being discussed?

 

[madodel]

Thanks, I wasn't aware of this. Do you remember where it was that this was being discussed?

It was discussed a bit here a few weeks ago, but you may have missed it in the endless noise.

 

[mershaw2001]

I try to be similarly cautious, but I expect to hit at least 340-345 range, that seems to have been a band where many fights were fought. There will be lots of supply there. Otherwise, momentum (I believe) works now for bulls.
If I had huge leveraged position would I wait for 340? No way! I'd be selling in tranches on the way up

this is my position (100% of margin was used on tsla at 282) and yes, this is what I'm doing. Taking 10% off by selling shares and selling call options for this week and next week out of the money. As mentioned before, it's the fourth day out of the Bollinger band and I think that we will wait at or around this spot for a few days for the BB to catch up to us (absent some unforeseen news).

 

[Waiting4M3]

Thanks, I wasn't aware of this. Do you remember where it was that this was being discussed?

Around May 17 people saw their VIN #s disappear from their Tesla accounts, then it was explained on May 18th in this post

"he did tell me that they have indeed changed the policy. You will no longer see your VIN until you are 7 days from the scheduled delivery date."​

Apparently the VIN is still assigned to a customer once the car goes into production, but it's hidden from the customer. People found out a hack to see the VIN, by pretending to buy a HPWC, and look in their shopping cart. But it appears that Tesla may have caught on to that as well.

Edit:

This is the reason I think if Tesla is stashing a bunch of M3 to delivery in July for US 200k maneuver, we might see a large # of VIN assignments in the last week of June, when Tesla will start scheduling July deliveries.

 

[defc0n]

Hope weak longs won’t regret that they got out at 330 today.

I’m assuming I probably will. Hoping for a modest dip while I get funds in order to hop back in.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sentiment is getting strongly positive around here again. That used to be a pretty good contrarian indicator. It's probably not a bad idea to have sold some or even most trading shares/calls at this point. IMO the risk is increasing for a pullback. Because of the current dynamics around the stock, the pullback could be pretty significant. Or, it could just keep on running. There is no way to know. I know I'm more comfortable at this point dialing my leverage back and focusing on my long term holding.

Weeks of doom and gloom vs a handful of days of cheerio. Hmm...

 

[Curt Renz]

It went up a bit too quick / too fast. Going to wait for another minor pullback and jump back in and switch my TSLA funds to robinhood. I could totally miss more upside, so don't listen to me please.

Sentiment is getting strongly positive around here again. That used to be a pretty good contrarian indicator. It's probably not a bad idea to have sold some or even most trading shares/calls at this point. IMO the risk is increasing for a pullback. Because of the current dynamics around the stock, the pullback could be pretty significant. Or, it could just keep on running. There is no way to know. I know I'm more comfortable at this point dialing my leverage back and focusing on my long term holding.

I bailed. It's gone up a decent amount, and it's way above the BB at the moment. Gonna use this time to transfer my money to robinhood.

I know it was asked earlier. You can transfer over cash and stock, but you can't transfer over options, which is what I have.

Even if Elon confirms 5k at the end of the month, there's plenty of time for people to throw FUD at tsla until then. I've gotten into the habit of always thinking that there are interest looking for a chance to crash the SP. In all likelihood, there are people stockpiling FUD as we speak, waiting for a slow news day to dump it all into the news. Recently, we've had a 10% and a 5% gain. That's plenty, for now.

Hope weak longs won’t regret that they got out at 330 today.

I’m assuming I probably will. Hoping for a modest dip while I get funds in order to hop back in.

still more juice left to squeeze ... staying put .......

It may have added a little to a more positive or neutral sentiment we have today but usually there is not the one reasons but a variety that comes together.

I also experienced some shorts on other boards that are extremely aggressive today and more irrational than I have seen for a while. Thats always a positive indication that this people are pretty desperate..... Good for longs.

Here's some consolation for Tesla short sellers and weak longs:

 

[TrendTrader007]

I like to look at quarterly and monthly $TSLA chart over a 100 year time frame which compresses the chart and gives me a bird eye perspective on where the stock is headed. I must say it looks extremely bullish. now zoom in to 50 year time frame and you'll see a quarterly bullish engulfing candle with super high volume in that this is on track of being the highest volume candle in the last 17 quarters!
daily chart it is already walking the Bollinger similar to what $AMD did last month leading me to believe that a 30% rise in SP at a minimum is in store for $TSLA over the next month so I'm looking at $400 plus easy on the conservative side
the singular inescapable conclusion is that $TSLA is about to have an inevitable Bollinger breakout which would be not for the squeamish/faint of heart. it shall take SP into stratospheric uncharted territory with a resounding and unequivocal decimation of short sellers' position. Elon was very serious when he warned the short sellers.
I am 160% leveraged on my stock position and 300% leveraged on my calls and fully intend to remain so for the foreseeable future
a common mistake that investors make is underestimating the power of a strongly trending high beta momentum stock and selling too early and regret at leisure.
the rich are not like you and me.
similarly, high beta momentum liquid glamours like $TSLA are not like your average common stock. these are rare finds and demand respect and forbearance. I therefore advocate considerable caution in selling too soon lest woe, regret and lamentation descend upon the hasty trader.
seller be beware
I rest my case

 

[Jayjs20]

Here's some consolation for Tesla short sellers and weak longs:

A weak long wouldn't have his entire life's savings in TSLA call options, sit around and watch the SP crash 140 dollars without selling.

I'm just trying to be smarter about this. Sell into strength. Never sell due to weakness.

 

[Navin]

A weak long wouldn't have his entire life's savings in TSLA call options, sit around and watch the SP crash 140 dollars without selling.

I'm just trying to be smarter about this. Sell into strength. Never sell due to weakness.

FUD

 

[Jayjs20]

FUD

I guess my cover is blown. The Koch brothers had a baby, together, and I am that baby.

 

[MikeC]

A weak long wouldn't have his entire life's savings in TSLA call options, sit around and watch the SP crash 140 dollars without selling.

I'm just trying to be smarter about this. Sell into strength. Never sell due to weakness.

Makes sense to deleverage some calls now, for sure. But why not find middle ground and convert the calls to shares and then transfer? Or transfer half at a time? Just so you don’t completely miss any big upside move.

 

[mongo]

I like to look at quarterly and monthly $TSLA chart over a 100 year time frame which compresses the chart and gives me a bird eye perspective on where the stock is headed. I must say it looks extremely bullish. now zoom in to 50 year time frame and you'll see a quarterly bullish engulfing candle with super high volume in that this is on track of being the highest volume candle in the last 17 quarters!
daily chart it is already walking the Bollinger similar to what $AMD did last month leading me to believe that a 30% rise in SP at a minimum is in store for $TSLA over the next month so I'm looking at $400 plus easy on the conservative side
the singular inescapable conclusion is that $TSLA is about to have an inevitable Bollinger breakout which would be not for the squeamish/faint of heart. it shall take SP into stratospheric uncharted territory with a resounding and unequivocal decimation of short sellers' position. Elon was very serious when he warned the short sellers.
I am 160% leveraged on my stock position and 300% leveraged on my calls and fully intend to remain so for the foreseeable future
a common mistake that investors make is underestimating the power of a strongly trending high beta momentum stock and selling too early and regret at leisure.
the rich are not like you and me.
similarly, high beta momentum liquid glamours like $TSLA are not like your average common stock. these are rare finds and demand respect and forbearance. I therefore advocate considerable caution in selling too soon lest woe, regret and lamentation descend upon the hasty trader.
seller be beware
I rest my case

Watson? Alpha Sub-Zero? FSD?
Who is behind the keyboard?

 

[K_Dizzle]

Makes sense to deleverage some calls now, for sure. But why not find middle ground and convert the calls to shares and then transfer? Or transfer half at a time? Just so you don’t completely miss any big upside move.

That’s exaclty what I did, I had a huge Position in $400 Jan 2020 calls which I converted into shares after a 70% fun. I wrote $400 Jan 2019 covered calls against my share positio . If it goes above that in six months I’ll be happy either way. We’ve been in this range for a long time and I don’t see shorts letting it go without a fight. That being said I’d be very happy if the SP hit $500 this Jan.

 

[Jayjs20]

Makes sense to deleverage some calls now, for sure. But why not find middle ground and convert the calls to shares and then transfer? Or transfer half at a time? Just so you don’t completely miss any big upside move.

I can see the validity in that, it just feels half hearted. At the end of the day, the question to ask is: Will we see sub-330 again? I just think that there's a good chance we will.

 

[Todd Burch]

I like to look at quarterly and monthly $TSLA chart over a 100 year time frame which compresses the chart and gives me a bird eye perspective on where the stock is headed.

When I look at TSLA on a 100 year timeframe I see a tiny line, and the rest of the graph is empty.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I can see the validity in that, it just feels half hearted. At the end of the day, the question to ask is: Will we see sub-330 again? I just think that there's a good chance we will.

Do you think there is a good chance we will see $320 before we see $350? I think we will see $350 1st, and may consider deleveraging there, converting some LEAP to shares