TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm thrilled with the recent delivery report. Over 100k Model S/X for the year. 1550 Model 3s delivered... as expected if you were following VINs and deliveries. And Model 3 ramping to around 1000/week run rate in last few days of quarter. Also as I expected, Tesla pushed their 5000/week guidance to end of Q2... which makes a lot more sense. Gives them breathing room to focus on quality.

Similar with me. Not exactly thrilled, but in line with my expectations.
I'm tempted to go all in (about 140% TSLA) tomorrow, if we hit low $300.
This is first time I'm tempted to leverage like this since Dec 2016..

 

[ggies07]

The reality is always harder to achieve than Elon thinks it will be....

Yes, but as Chamath Palihapitiya says....."building revolutionary things is hard....ok, you don't just walk in and invent the iPhone.....you gotta think about this in years and when you boil it down to quarters in doesn't work"

So what they pushed 5,000/w to another quarter. The dude and the company are driving this transition. So go ahead shorts, squawk all you want about quarter numbers or weekly numbers.

Chamath Palihapitiya says Elon Musk is the 'most important entrepreneur of our generation'

 

[Mike Smith]

I agree with #2 and #3 but how do we know they are past the point of revealing all production problems?

Maybe not all, but the vast majority. 95% of problems will show up the first time you try to make a new car on a new production line. All the problems after that are just to do with how to speed things up without affecting quality.

 

[TMSE]

Sorry, was in a personal training session. Here is the entire note:

Delayed Model 3 Ramp Still 2x Our Forecast: We Buy the Dip

4Q deliveries suggest revenue 10% above our forecast. Tesla officially delayed its 5k / week Model 3 milestone by another quarter. This will surely disappoint some bulls, but implies a 2Q delivery rate possibly 2x our forecast. Reiterate EW, but would buy on weakness.

Key thoughts following Tesla’s 4Q production and delivery update and outlook:

• Tesla posted Model S, Model X and Model 3 4Q delivery numbers above our forecast for each model line. Model S volume increased roughly 20% YoY (MS at +7.5%). Model X volume jumped nearly 40% (MS at +29%). Model 3 volume came in at 1,550 units vs. our 1,000 forecast.
• Model 3 production rate exiting 4Q17 easily 50% above our pace of delivery forecast for 1Q. Our 1Q Model 3 delivery forecast of 8k units implies a pace of less than 700 per week. Tesla reported that it produced 793 Model 3s in the last 7 days of 2017 and in the last few days hit a rate of over 1k per week. Both are well ahead of the weekly delivery rate implied in our 1Q forecast. In other words, Tesla appears to be currently producing the Model 3 at a pace is well ahead of the pace implied in our earnings model.
• Tesla officially pushed out its target of 5,000 Model 3 per week by a full quarter to the end of 2Q18. This should not at all be a surprise to the market, in our opinion. While we do not forecast exit production levels in any individual quarter for any individual model, we believe the 2,500 target of weekly Model 3 production by end of 1Q is roughly 2x our forecast. For 2Q18, we forecast 24k Model 3 deliveries for the entire quarter for an average of 2k per week. Tesla expects to exit 2Q at 5k per week.
• Our current forecasts do not imply reaching 5k Model 3 production per week at any time in 2H18... yet their revised forecast has them starting out the quarter at that pace. We forecast 32,400 (2,700 per week) and 45,600 (3,800 per week) Model 3 deliveries in 3Q and 4Q respectively.

We continue to view Tesla as a high risk investment. The upside to our $379 price target should be seen from the perspective of elevated risk. While there isa ton of attention around the ramp of Model 3 in early 2018, we continue to believe the greater risk to the stock involves encroachment from tech firms with adjacent data monetization opportunities in the mobility ecosystem. We expect Tesla shares to be extremely volatile in 2018, divided into two stages: (1) The alleviation of production bottlenecks with strong cash inflow, and (2) mounting concerns over the sustainability of the competitive moat.

Thanks @mulder1231 ! Realistic and opportunistic investors see this as a good delivery report.

 

[BornToFly]

Similar with me. Not exactly thrilled, but in line with my expectations.
I'm tempted to go all in (about 140% TSLA) tomorrow, if we hit low $300.
This is first time I'm tempted to leverage like this since Dec 2016..

Personally, I bought stock the last two days. I'm not selling anything tomorrow, but if there is a dip, I'm not buying tomorrow. If it drops, we have no way to know how far down it is going to go, and for how many days/weeks. If it eventually drops to a clear bottom, I'll bite, but not before....

 

[Richgoogol]

Tesla is still struggling with Model 3 production
“But none of that appeared to quell all investors' fears. Tesla's shares sank more than 7% at one point during after hours trading.”
What pot are these journalists smoking lately? Show me the drop of 7% please.

 

[theschnell]

Similar with me. Not exactly thrilled, but in line with my expectations.
I'm tempted to go all in (about 140% TSLA) tomorrow, if we hit low $300.
This is first time I'm tempted to leverage like this since Dec 2016..

Based on your last experience, does this mean we should consider lightening up?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Based on your last experience, does this mean we should consider lightening up?

Too soon?

 

[Curt Renz]

Gene Munster's reaction to the Tesla production/deliveries report: Model 3 Miss as Expected, Production Ramp Encouraging | Loup Ventures

 

[BornToFly]

Gene Munster's reaction to the Tesla production/deliveries report: Model 3 Miss as Expected, Production Ramp Encouraging | Loup Ventures

Wow, they find the report encouraging, and only predict 5k/week in 2019? Now that is really pessimistic in my opinion.

 

[Time]

I'm back again!

I have to say that I am relieved and think the barrage of downgrades will come fast and furious tomorrow. Expect a big drop and a bad week. But I am truly relieved this number is out, guidance has been lowered, and we have better things to look forward to, mainly the Q3 to Q4 increase in customer deposits.

Luckily, I have some cash on the sidelines if it drops far enough. I'm still assuming $280 is possible.

But I'm just glad this crap is done and over with for now. The anticipation was killing me.

This was not nearly as bad as I was expecting. The S & X numbers were impressive for a products that are claimed to be "plateauing" every 3 months by the same dumb misguided analysts.

Looking forward to announcements regarding new markets as well so the S & X numbers continue. Lots of wealth out in the world, Tesla needs to tap into that as soon as possible.

Relieved!

 

[bdy0627]

Bummed about the backpedaling again on guidance, but that's just because I have calls expiring in March and June. I have been drinking way too much koolaid I guess. So, the 5,000/week production was originally pushed back from end of Q4 2017 to end of Q1 2018, and that was given with a high degree of confidence as of 2 months ago. Now it has been pushed back another 3 months to the end of Q2 2018, presumably again with a high degree of confidence. What the heck happened over the last couple of months to change the guidance? My question is, is end of Q2 finally realistic for 5,000/week? Or, is that still optimistic? I believed in the guidance when they said there was confidence in 5,000/week by end of Q1. Well, that was pretty wrong, wasn't it? How is one to truly filter guidance from Tesla? My guess is that no matter what is said, just always assume it is extremely optimistic guidance. This would apply to the latest ramp guidance as well it would seem. Is it more likely then that 5,000/week will come by Sep. 2018? Do others familiar with Tesla guidance think 5,000/week by June 2018 is very likely at this point? Or, is it still optimistic as per the track record? I'm gaining more respect for Adam Jonas' forecasts regarding Tesla.

 

[NZ10K]

Bummed about the backpedaling again on guidance, but that's just because I have calls expiring in March and June. I have been drinking way too much koolaid I guess. So, the 5,000/week production was originally pushed back from end of Q4 2017 to end of Q1 2018, and that was given with a high degree of confidence as of 2 months ago. Now it has been pushed back another 3 months to the end of Q2 2018, presumably again with a high degree of confidence. What the heck happened over the last couple of months to change the guidance? My question is, is end of Q2 finally realistic for 5,000/week? Or, is that still optimistic? I believed in the guidance when they said there was confidence in 5,000/week by end of Q1. Well, that was pretty wrong, wasn't it? How is one to truly filter guidance from Tesla? My guess is that no matter what is said, just always assume it is extremely optimistic guidance. This would apply to the latest ramp guidance as well it would seem. Is it more likely then that 5,000/week will come by Sep. 2018? Do others familiar with Tesla guidance think 5,000/week by June 2018 is very likely at this point? Or, is it still optimistic as per the track record? I'm gaining more respect for Adam Jonas' forecasts regarding Tesla.

I wouldn't count on hhe end of Q2 target date at all. I'm inclining to believe that mostly likely they might be able to achieve the 5000/week by end of 2018. the 10K/week goal will likely never be reached. I have reasons for that, but I'm tired of typing.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm back again!

I have to say that I am relieved and think the barrage of downgrades will come fast and furious tomorrow. Expect a big drop and a bad week. But I am truly relieved this number is out, guidance has been lowered, and we have better things to look forward to, mainly the Q3 to Q4 increase in customer deposits.

Great! More completely obvious "talk down the stock" posts disguised as "rooting for Tesla!"

I find it so interesting that the negative nancies with low post counts suddenly "appear" when shorts think they have the opportunity to pounce and push the stock down.

I for one am not fooled.

At least myusername participates regularly, even though I ignore his drivel.

 

[aznt1217]

For a company that supposedly couldn't make 20k Cars a year, making 1,000 a week isn't too shabby. The shorts who claim that there is no demand can't use the argument that we can't make cars quickly enough (which they are now). Oh BTW Model S and Model X beat delivery forecasts...? I love how this is left out

 

[ZeApelido]

Reading the tea leaves, seems like they will reach 1000 / week in a month or so.

 

[Time]

For a company that supposedly couldn't make 20k Cars a year, making 1,000 a week isn't too shabby. The shorts who claim that there is no demand can't use the argument that we can't make cars quickly enough (which they are now). Oh BTW Model S and Model X beat delivery forecasts...? I love how this is left out

Yeah. But just wait, some dumb analyst will claim "saturated market" for them again. Like they've done every quarter for the past 2 years...yet the deliveries keep growing lol.

Reading the tea leaves, seems like they will reach 1000 / week in a month or so.

They've reached that already. They exited at a 1000 per week rate, even though they didn't make 1000 during the last week. Heck, even if you ignore that, the 800 during the last week is EXTREMELY promising and positive. That is basically equal to the S and X lines after just a few months.

 

[Time]

Great! More completely obvious "talk down the stock" posts disguised as "rooting for Tesla!"

I find it so interesting that the negative nancies with low post counts suddenly "appear" when shorts think they have the opportunity to pounce and push the stock down.

I for one am not fooled.

At least myusername participates regularly, even though I ignore his drivel.

I'm really not a short seller. Read my earlier posts, from back in December of 2016...I was a lot more optimistic then. I've just been recently pessimistic and disillusioned with the Nasdaq gains while we've been flat. I was also upset with analysts expectations being too high.

Analyst downgrades and getting bad news out of the way are a way to flush the dumb money out and create bottoms. That's all I meant.

 

[dc_h]

Wow, they find the report encouraging, and only predict 5k/week in 2019? Now that is really pessimistic in my opinion.

The good thing is that the guys that actually follow Tesla, not talk about it between their 3rd scotch, but knew the expected deliver numbers, think this was bullish. They follow the stock and know Elon is Elon. S/X sales were amazing. Deposits are going to be amazing. Tesla will be profitable the second half or quarter, whatever. When 10 billion in shorts head for the door, the only reason to care is option timing.

 

[mongo]

from back in December of 2016...I was a lot more optimistic then. I've just been recently pessimistic and disillusioned with the Nasdaq gains while we've been flat.

So ignore the recent hovering action, unless you want to switch from long term investing to market timing....

12 month returns:
NASDAQ: 30%
TSLA: 46%