Buddyroe
Active Member
I'm assuming you didn't read the several posts above mine making fun of EM's projections - or maybe you just didn't understand them.
And I'll ask you the same thing - do you currently own a Tesla?
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I'm assuming you didn't read the several posts above mine making fun of EM's projections - or maybe you just didn't understand them.
And I'll ask you the same thing - do you currently own a Tesla?
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think you read far too much into those ribbings of Musk. The dude sucks at estimates. Like, really badly.
Doesn't mean I want anyone else at the helm, nor that I doubt the future of the company. I've just come to accept that my Tesla Time to Earth Time conversion equation needed some more work. Given the dour mood around here today, memes seemed appropriate.
Now back to our regularly-scheduled, somewhat more on-topic ramblings. Asia markets are not promising for a Friday improvement, nor is the fact that a government shutdown of non-zero duration is assured.
Best of luck to all, and godspeed.
Krugerrand
Meow
Bullpucky! There are several other possible reasons;
Better pay/compensation
Less hours allowing for more family time
Lower stress
Friendlier boss environment
Always wanted to be a COO as a career choice
Etc.,
Krugerrand
Meow
Was Grohmann even in play when that task was given out originally ?? Recall that there have been issues at Grohmann so even if the timeline is right for them to have been given the task they had to finish held contracts, then the union issues, the departure of the owner due to conflict with Tesla...
Tesla was supposed to be free cash flow positive also in 2015 and 2016. Forward looking statements are forward looking statements.
You can do this yourself by selling your shares. Vote with your wallet.
It is funny to see how quickly folks moods change with the stock price. If the stock price was up today folks would be cheering.
The company is growing at a clip of 30-50% per year. This is extremely impressive.
Runarbt
Active Member
imo this sp drop i pure macro and oportunistic shorts driven. ER was solid. a beat with strong guidance.
as in the past sp drop for 2-4 days after ER, almost always. bad macro makes they dive larger. will turn around soon.
my 2019 calls still hurt.. i never learn and hang on..
not when it's 30% to 50% of nothing... I'll be "extremely impressed" when the grow 10% at 1m cars/yr... while you guys are upset because they were supposed to grow 30% to 50% forever.
Hornsdale battery in Australia was on time and is an amazing succes.
I guess the bulk of us here are well used to Elon's over-optimistic deadlines, but for the ones desperate to get an M3, who aren't well versed with Elon-Time, it might indeed be very frustrating. I guess many of us here are well-heeled enough to already own MS/X, so we're not so invested in the M3 from that perspective, with some notable exceptions, of course...
Regarding whether a COO would help things going forward? I'm not so sure about that. Why? Well if there was a strong COO in place then I could imagine we'd still be tracking the original M3 planning which was bringing to market in 2019, or something like that? So from that perspective, anyone dampening Elon's wild ambitions might swing it too much the other way and decrese Tesla's agility. I, for one, see it all as growing-pains, and I expect them to screw-up every schedule for the foreseeable future. That's the nature of the beast and it's a risk I accept. Of course I'm long, so it's less stressful, must be pretty bad for options traders, but on the other hand, big opportunities for the day-traders, no?
If Tesla did decide to take on a COO then maybe they could poach that Cook guy from Apple. He was a very good COO and worked well under crazy Steve Jobs - in any case, he's not a very good CEO...
Regarding whether a COO would help things going forward? I'm not so sure about that. Why? Well if there was a strong COO in place then I could imagine we'd still be tracking the original M3 planning which was bringing to market in 2019, or something like that? So from that perspective, anyone dampening Elon's wild ambitions might swing it too much the other way and decrese Tesla's agility. I, for one, see it all as growing-pains, and I expect them to screw-up every schedule for the foreseeable future. That's the nature of the beast and it's a risk I accept. Of course I'm long, so it's less stressful, must be pretty bad for options traders, but on the other hand, big opportunities for the day-traders, no?
If Tesla did decide to take on a COO then maybe they could poach that Cook guy from Apple. He was a very good COO and worked well under crazy Steve Jobs - in any case, he's not a very good CEO...
While some reservations may be cancelled because it all takes sooo long, let’s think about the millions that haven’t made a reservation yet. I regularly have conversations with my collegues. They are all in a situation where they get a nice new leased company car every 4 years. While the conversations in the past were about how feasible it is to drive electric, the conversation has shifted to what they will need when their next car is electric (how to get reimbursed for the electricity they use at home or on public chargers). With a new car every 4 years, half of them may actually (be able to) get a Model 3 as their next company car. The comments are now in the line of ‘let’s hope Tesla get their production problems solved by the time I have to choose a new car’ and ‘is there anything else electric we may get if we can’t get a Model 3 yet (no, not really)’. ‘Please not a diesel again’.
When I got my Model S 2 years ago they couldn’t believe me when I said some of them were driving their last ICE car(if not, they were certainly driving their last but one ICE car), with the increased production of Model 3 they start to see I was right.
When I got my Model S 2 years ago they couldn’t believe me when I said some of them were driving their last ICE car(if not, they were certainly driving their last but one ICE car), with the increased production of Model 3 they start to see I was right.
This is probably the worst possible environment to say this, but... Elon is not doing this for traders¹ (options, day, momentum, everyone). They are willing to literally gamble based on the swing of a number (stock price) very loosely² correlated to the growth of a company that's trying to disrupt 3-4 major industries at once.
So they are responsible of their own fortune or misfortune.
I'm sorry it sucks (it does).
¹ I see long term investors as different breed, in this case.
² I hope someone can appreciate the correct use of "loose" in this sentence ;-)
After reading so much negativity on Elon and his projections on this forum, I have to chime in. I gave up on realistic expectations from Elon a while back. You cannot be a realistic person and start rocket and car companies. You have to be inherently super optimistic to go through the kind of *sugar* EM and his team have to go through (that too for so many years). The last thing I want is EM to get realistic because any realistic/sane person would not want to go through the troubles of challenging the auto industry single handedly. Stay calm, its unfair to judge companies like Tesla on a quarterly basis (inspite of what projections they make).
I still remember in late 2015 I thought there was 0 chance of M3 coming before 2020 and here we are thinking if we can get to 2500/wk or not. Also, MS+MX hit 2k/wk last year, 6 yrs after 1st Model S. M3 hitting 2k/wk after 6 months of launch is still good.
I am more concerned about how ppl will perceive the touch controls on M3. Read/saw lots of reviews complaining about that. If ppl like the car, we will sell a ton of them at ASP of $45k. Key is, ppl need to like the car
I still remember in late 2015 I thought there was 0 chance of M3 coming before 2020 and here we are thinking if we can get to 2500/wk or not. Also, MS+MX hit 2k/wk last year, 6 yrs after 1st Model S. M3 hitting 2k/wk after 6 months of launch is still good.
I am more concerned about how ppl will perceive the touch controls on M3. Read/saw lots of reviews complaining about that. If ppl like the car, we will sell a ton of them at ASP of $45k. Key is, ppl need to like the car
In about 6 to7 weeks (begin april), we should see production rate above 2000cars/week or more (2.5K/week) according to the conference call.
We've waited so long for mass production... Buy the dip
We've waited so long for mass production... Buy the dip
Spot on. Tesla and Space X (and the Boring Co. for that matter) would not be where they are today without the vision and optimism of Musk. If we had a pencil pushing, bean-counting CEO, Tesla would have two car models right now (imo) instead of a great looking, high-performing fleet of vehicles currently available and growing. Tesla would be a niche, cool car company for car enthusiasts and green customers who had some discretionary income with nowhere near the impact that Tesla is having right now. Musk has pushed perhaps the most entrenched, well-capitalized, least innovative and lobby-laden industries into changing their whole approach to business - i.e. auto manufacturers/dealers and the fossil fuel industry.
I drive a Tesla and own the stock (like many others here) and I am used to the optimistic projections of Musk and have come to accept and embrace them. I understand how a new Tesla shareholder or Model 3 reservation holder would be confused or even angry with the missed projections, but trust me, it is worth the wait!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Ridiculous statement.
If you really think that I don't know what owners/investors think after my 10+ years on this forum I'm not sure I can convince you otherwise.
Check my comment history, and the hundreds of threads to which I'm subscribed.
See my previous responses. I know quite well both the joys and frustrations of owning Tesla products not through my own experience but through those of literally thousands of others. I pay attention, you should try it.
Great, but I don't necessarily do the same. I dislike Apple products and their general product philosophy but I've owned the stock for years.
Because innovative companies often try new things that never actually make it to market. Even stodgy old auto companies routinely show off cars that never get built. Tesla does far better than most in that respect but it doesn't mean that everything they try will work.
Simply put you didn't do enough research into Tesla before you invested, if you had you'd have known that they almost never meet projections and that not every single thing they are working on will necessarily turn out as intended. That's what happens when you push the envelope and that's the type of company Tesla clearly is.
On the call, did it feel like the Y is more economically viable, sans credit, than the 3?
(thought I heard "over a million" on the Y, but not on the 3.)
There is a frontal area vs battery cost crossover thing going on. Tesla might see the ability to afford a compact SUV frontal area sized battery pack in the future.
Many like to tout the average selling price of a light vehicle in the US as $35K. [ $36,270 Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book ]
That light vehicle transaction price is being pulled up by vehicles that cost more than $50K and pulled down by vehicles that cost less than $20K.
The large market value proposition of a $50,000 car is as a truck. The model 3 is not a truck and does not do what a truck does, so at the $50K price point, the market for a model 3 is smaller.
The model 3 is like only a very few of the vehicles on the attached $50K list.
Did the Tesla conference call reflect this understanding?
Is Tesla acting to help a broader audience understand this as well?
(thought I heard "over a million" on the Y, but not on the 3.)
There is a frontal area vs battery cost crossover thing going on. Tesla might see the ability to afford a compact SUV frontal area sized battery pack in the future.
Many like to tout the average selling price of a light vehicle in the US as $35K. [ $36,270 Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book ]
That light vehicle transaction price is being pulled up by vehicles that cost more than $50K and pulled down by vehicles that cost less than $20K.
The large market value proposition of a $50,000 car is as a truck. The model 3 is not a truck and does not do what a truck does, so at the $50K price point, the market for a model 3 is smaller.
The model 3 is like only a very few of the vehicles on the attached $50K list.
Did the Tesla conference call reflect this understanding?
Is Tesla acting to help a broader audience understand this as well?
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