TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

BTW, fourth quarter 2017 production and deliveries numbers were revealed after the market close on January 3. January 1 was the last day of a three-day market holiday weekend, as was today, April 1. So I would not get too worried, if we have to wait until after the market close on Tuesday for the report.

However, if they have some good news that they hope can stop the slide of the SP, then they will probably release that ASAP.
OTOH, if the numbers are not too good, then they are not in a hurry to release them. So I'd guess if we don't see anything by Monday night, then the numbers are not too good.
Just my $.02...

 

[BornToFly]

It's now essentially the "quiet" period before the quarterly production and deliveries report.

The quarterly production and delivery report is not an Earnings Report. My understanding is that this was something they started to fight the FUD as the quarter ended. Why does everyone keep saying there is a "quiet period" on this?

 

[Waiting4M3]

However, if they have some good news that they hope can stop the slide of the SP, then they will probably release that ASAP.
OTOH, if the numbers are not too good, then they are not in a hurry to release them. So I'd guess if we don't see anything by Monday night, then the numbers are not too good.
Just my $.02...

I agree, if they don't have to "extrapolate" I think we'll likely hear the #s tomorrow.

 

[Curt Renz]

However, if they have some good news that they hope can stop the slide of the SP, then they will probably release that ASAP.
OTOH, if the numbers are not too good, then they are not in a hurry to release them. So I'd guess if we don't see anything by Monday night, then the numbers are not too good.
Just my $.02...

It seems that the timing of the report would be most dependent on the ability of the accounting team to assemble accurate data, not only from the factory but also from the widespread stores processing deliveries. This from personnel who have just returned from a holiday weekend. Again, I would not develop negative inferences, if the report is not made public until late on Tuesday.

 

[Curt Renz]

The quarterly production and delivery report is not an Earnings Report. My understanding is that this was something they started to fight the FUD as the quarter ended. Why does everyone keep saying there is a "quiet period" on this?

In 2005 the rules became somewhat relaxed regarding quiet periods for earnings reports. Note that I put quotes around "quiet" in my earlier post. Nevertheless most companies still prudently act as though the rule is in full force, so as not to upset the market. The other automakers do not comment in advance about their monthly sales figures out of similar concern. Tesla could be following their lead, although on a quarterly rather than monthly basis.

 

[Richard007]

3 model 3’s in one day. Mill Valley, CA. Here’s an amazing black one:

 

[RobStark]

VW is partially owned by the German state and employs too many people in Germany for it to go bankrupt.

The German State of Lower Saxony owns 20.2% of the voting shares in VW AG. 80% of the vote is required for major decisions.

 

[MattFishbach]

Here's a data point for Monday: After 7 days of ownership with my Model 3: zero problems of any sort, and 670 miles driven (equivalent of 35,000 miles/year). Yes, the car really is that fun to drive. By far the best vehicle I've ever owned.

 

[Hogfighter]

Here's a data point for Monday: After 7 days of ownership with my Model 3: zero problems of any sort, and 670 miles driven (equivalent of 35,000 miles/year). Yes, the car really is that fun to drive. By far the best vehicle I've ever owned.

Congratulations on your new sled!

3 posts since 2013? And I thought I was a good lurker...

 

[bambam4171]

Speaking about VW, you can’t forget the latest promise of an e-tron. A EV so fantastic that it needs the body and radiator of a Q5.

Audi confirms all-electric e-tron Quattro SUV ‘starting price of €80,000’ ($99,000)

Well they have been announcing an E-Tron for 9 years now. Audi E-tron electric concept at 2009 Frankfurt motor show

Talk about "Ankündigungsweltmeister"

Translation:
Now I really need to say a few words about Tesla: With all respect, there are some world champions of big announcements in this world—I don’t want to name names. There are companies that barely sell 80,000 cars a year. Then there are companies like Volkswagen that sell 11 million cars this year, and produce a profit of 13 or 14 billion euro. If I am correctly informed, Tesla each quarter destroys millions of dollars in the three digits, and it willy-nilly fires its workers. Social responsibility? Please. We should not not get carried away and compare apples with oranges.

 

[SteveG3]

Well they have been announcing an E-Tron for 9 years now. Audi E-tron electric concept at 2009 Frankfurt motor show

Talk about "Ankündigungsweltmeister"

Translation:
Now I really need to say a few words about Tesla: With all respect, there are some world champions of big announcements in this world—I don’t want to name names. There are companies that barely sell 80,000 cars a year. Then there are companies like Volkswagen that sell 11 million cars this year, and produce a profit of 13 or 14 billion euro. If I am correctly informed, Tesla each quarter destroys millions of dollars in the three digits, and it willy-nilly fires its workers. Social responsibility? Please. We should not not get carried away and compare apples with oranges.

perhaps they could advance to “Elon time”

 

[NicoV]

That is likely true. It's now essentially the "quiet" period before the quarterly production and deliveries report. This being April Fool's day, it may have provided Elon with a clever opportunity to imply confidence in the quickening of the Model 3 ramp, while jokingly appearing to speak quite negatively. He may have felt the need to jump in today to overcome the somewhat difficult news that came out since the market close on Thursday. He's no dummy.

BTW, fourth quarter 2017 production and deliveries numbers were revealed after the market close on January 3. January 1 was the last day of a three-day market holiday weekend, as was today, April 1. So I would not get too worried, if we have to wait until after the market close on Tuesday for the report.

Curt, I fear that the SEC may not find Elon’s tweets humourous. I don’t even remember CEO’s of major public companies making April fools jokes, and certainly not about the financial health of the company. Are we not at risk of SEC sanctions here?

 

[Mrr82]

From this website, sale of VW products doesn't appear to be affected by Dieselgate...
View attachment 291087

Some quick math shows that’s a decent decrease from 2014 (last full year before scandal) to 2017. Not sure what math you’re using.

 

[MartinAustin]

Monday morning pre-market trading opens about three bucks down at $256.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

A perfect response to the "cash crunch" nonsense purposefully spread by FUDsters and even some bulls who are not financially literate:

Why I have zero concerns about Tesla running out of cash

I certainly agree that cashflow is crucial, but it's not the only crucial issue.

Let's say that Tesla raises lots of cash from a friendly lender, or Model Y deposits, or by stretching supplier terms still further. That still leaves them with the solvency problem. At the current rate of loss they will be insolvent (liabilities exceed assets) in 1.5 - 2.5 years. Insolvency triggers acceleration of all debts and leases. Tesla has about $25 billion of liabilities. Approximately $13 billion would become immediately due and payable upon insolvency.

Tesla doesn't need just cash - it needs the right kind of cash - equity.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I certainly agree that cashflow is crucial, but it's not the only crucial issue.

Let's say that Tesla raises lots of cash from a friendly lender, or Model Y deposits, or by stretching supplier terms still further. That still leaves them with the solvency problem. At the current rate of loss they will be insolvent (liabilities exceed assets) in 1.5 - 2.5 years. Insolvency triggers acceleration of all debts and leases. Tesla has about $25 billion of liabilities. Approximately $13 billion would become immediately due and payable upon insolvency.

Tesla doesn't need just cash - it needs the right kind of cash - equity.

Tesla already declared bankwuptcy; didn’t you hear?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Curt, I fear that the SEC may not find Elon’s tweets humourous. I don’t even remember CEO’s of major public companies making April fools jokes, and certainly not about the financial health of the company. Are we not at risk of SEC sanctions here?

No, SEC will not sanction Tesla’s because of an April Fool’s joke.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It seems that the timing of the report would be most dependent on the ability of the accounting team to assemble accurate data, not only from the factory but also from the widespread stores processing deliveries. This from personnel who have just returned from a holiday weekend. Again, I would not develop negative inferences, if the report is not made public until late on Tuesday.

Why would the accounting team be the lead on a sales report? And call me cray cray, but I doubt whoever is responsible for compiling this report was chilling in Bali at quarter-end, while Franz was delivering cars.

 

[Reciprocity]

Speaking about VW, you can’t forget the latest promise of an e-tron. A EV so fantastic that it needs the body and radiator of a Q5.

Audi confirms all-electric e-tron Quattro SUV ‘starting price of €80,000’ ($99,000)

Smaller, less range for the price and I'm sure lower performance. $99k does include vat, so it is cheaper then a base model x in Europe due to import duties, tough probably much closer in the US because we charge much less in duties to import the Audi here. Basically every dimensions is smaller by 6" except width which is 12" smaller. Let's see how many thousands/y they make. 1,2, 10 maybe.

 

[HG Wells]

WOW the premarket has TSLA down almost 8 points !

Could people be thinking Elon was not joking?

Personally I think today is the final day of TSLA's spring sale.
Looking to pick up a few closeouts.

Not advice in any way, shape, or form.