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Insta-pop to stock price of 1.5% the last minute or so. Shorts covering? Hmm The ER suspense is killing me!
MartinAustin
Active Member
nice to see the stock price moving up. eventually the all but certain reality of success of the Model 3 ramp will have its gravitational pull on the stock price.
maybe we see some of that today (maybe we already are), maybe not. with each coming event of Model 3 ramp updates, the odds of that pull taking hold and gaining momentum increases. known additional upcoming events with Model 3 ramp comments expected:
annual meeting- June 5th
Q2 production numbers- early July
Q2 earnings report- early August
maybe we see some of that today (maybe we already are), maybe not. with each coming event of Model 3 ramp updates, the odds of that pull taking hold and gaining momentum increases. known additional upcoming events with Model 3 ramp comments expected:
annual meeting- June 5th
Q2 production numbers- early July
Q2 earnings report- early August
330k shares in 5 minutes per Yahoo. Looks like market likes that Fed is not changing interest rates.
dhrivnak
Active Member
dhrivnak
Active Member
bdy0627
Active Member
TSLA shot up nicely with the market after the Fed news. Overall, it's not acting like a stock headed for a selloff on a terrible ER. But it's hard to say since some shorts will likely cover today just in case. Perhaps it was all priced in and then some. Hope so. I'm selling some of my May calls on this pop.
Tesla has popped many times before an ER only to be decimated afterwards, pre ER movements in the hours prior have never been an indicator in my experience. I'm still hopeful, but I've sold the last of my September calls on this pop. Hoping to regret it in a few hours.
For other OEMs, InsideEvs aggregates their reports. Tesla does not supply monthly numbers,so InsideEvs sets the the last month of the quarter so that their quarter total matches Tesla's published numbers (see footnote on table). There is no way to verify if their monthly breakdown is correct (unless you are Tesla)
Reciprocity
Active Member
You try typing that much on cellphone and not make a mistake!
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Yeah, thanks to this pop I'm shorting calls against my long calls to make spreads. I don't need infinite profit potential and the extra cash can be used to BTFD.
Motor Mouth
Member
I only recently joined the forums, so take my comments with a grain of salt for the inexperience. I have, however, held TSLA since 2012, with the last time I added being when it fell below 200. Apologies for those who feel different, but I'm inclined to add if the price drops near 250 again after ER. I don't know that I "hope" for that, but it would be the only catalyst for me to add. Again, bear in mind that I pretty much just buy and hold, so it takes an extraordinary opportunity for me to buy at all (and I never sell). I simply see the current drag on the SP as missing the main point. Model 3 will be a success and this will probably be clear by the next reporting period. Anecdotally, I took delivery earlier in the month. I had a couple weeks of that feeling that everybody was looking at me because I have a new car that they haven't seen, or haven't seen much, before. That was until last Friday when one of my neighbors in the next block got his/hers. I think deliveries are finally really starting to roll and it will be only in hindsight that 2 or 3 months from now public sentiment will swing wildly to the positive when seeing a M3 on the road is commonplace rather than unique. After all, the business is to sell (and ultimately deliver) cars that people want. I think this may be the last opportunity to buy (at least at my cheapo budget level) before average Joe realizes that he might actually be able to afford this car rather than just hating the "rich" dudes he sees driving them. If it goes to 250 I'm a buyer again (after years of watching).
I think most of us are realists. The extreme cheerleaders are gone. The rest of us expect disappointment until the Master Plan is implemented fully. We’ll be happy when the profits roll in and the stock price is heading to Mars.
Forget the shorts, I hope this climb is due to the ER leaking early
Obvious capping at $305 for about half an hour at 2pm ET. Volume up. Someone knows something and someone else doesn't want to hear it.
pz1975
Active Member
If this spike keeps going, I will definitely be selling OTM weekly calls before close against my LEAPS.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
InsideEV apparently did the same thing for MX in Q1 2016. They originally published the report on Apr 1st, then updated on Apr 4th after Tesla announced that they sold 2400 MX in Q1. Their final numbers for Jan, Feb, and March are 270, 270, 1860, adding up to 2400 exactly. The identical 270 numbers for Jan and Feb look very hand-wavy, and 1860 is clearly just subtracting Jan and Feb from the 2400 total.
I would argue that InsideEV seems to have some way to tracking sales when a model is in steady state, maybe by correlating with world-wide sales such as Norway which have daily registration counts. But in the case of initial ramp of a model that is only happening in the US, I don't see what additional data that they would have that none here TMC have looked at. Maybe they have some depth in their analysis using the similar data that we've looked at for Jan/Feb numbers, but the way they cop out in their March estimate undercuts their credibility.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
No keaks so far. Or it is leaked but we are exactly where the market expect. Model 3 at 5k = $350. Model3 6 months late = $300.
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