I sold puts. The time decay is on my side. That said, after I did that, implied volatility blew up. So I sold more puts, but I do have to wait longer to be "in the green" on my old options. IV is back down again, but not to where it was when I sold the first lot.
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Options are truly complicated. I think I understand them enough to use my current strategy (which is mostly "sell puts when IV is high and wait for expiration"), but Jonathan Hewitt seems to be the person on this board who understands options best.
Can I just say that I really disagree with this viewpoint? Generally, stocks move relative to where they were yesterday. Clearly that's too simplistic in general, but if there's news today that makes the price rise 3%, I'd rather that it rose 3% without having gone down the day before. For me it's ever onward, ever upward...
Yes, your claim seems to be that if they were stupid and duplicitous, they wouldn't admit it. I have to agree. Of course the other explanation would be that they aren't stupid and duplicitous, and they mean what they have always said: it isn't negotiable.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
That would only be relevant if said porn actress was on the design team for Model 3. Then she would damn well for sure be under an NDA! LOL!
Dan
jhm
Well-Known Member
I wish they would give a break down of who has NDAs and which ones involve porn stars. It would be very helpful and I am wondering what they gain by keeping it secret.
Do you see how easy baseless insinuations are? That is why I am mocking your response.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Yes, and if the porn stars are indeed sitting on a pile of TSLA stock as you said, then I want photos.
I'm not aware that they have ever promised that they would detail any such waiver, so I don't think they would be duplicitous (although I may have missed the statement). And I certainly don't think it would be stupid. Lots of companies give incentives to certain customers but not to others in the correct circumstances.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah, it's not worth wasting much more time on a max $40mm of semi deposits.
If the market stays like this, there may be bigger issues anyhow. I think it was Buffett who said, "When the tide goes out, you get to see who was swimming naked".
If you have the bulls on ignore then we are going to end up in a 2 way conversation!I have bulls on ignore too.. I could see only your reply ..
Want to know what kind of people work at Reveal, the company obsessed with non-union-company injuries that completely ignore union-company injuries?
r/teslamotors - The organization "Reveal" and it's top people have gone from falsifying information regrading Tesla's safety record to now pushing a conspiracy theory that Elon Musk is an anti-semitic white supremacist...
r/teslamotors - The organization "Reveal" and it's top people have gone from falsifying information regrading Tesla's safety record to now pushing a conspiracy theory that Elon Musk is an anti-semitic white supremacist...
Ridiculous. It's sad to see how the vicious prejudice against Jews and against the successful persists through the ages. And I have never seen one shred of evidence to suggest that Musk is white supremacist. Too many white South Africans get tarred with this brush.
On reflection I should have realized this was happening after the December press conference (which probably was their plan B).
Firstly you have to remember that this TMC forums are a rich source of information, the level of knowledge of the people here is second-to-none. This thread in particular has often been used as the source of news stories. So it would make perfect sense to plant some contrarian comments here in order to FUD generate headlines.
Of course I agree with you on the physic aspects, but I do think the quick turn-around time would be useful. If you consider in small city I live in, Brussels, 1 million inhabitants, we have, I would guess 50 different bus routes (we have a Metro and tram system too). Looking at the real-time maps right now I see some route have 9 buses running, some 5, some, others just one (they are short routes), others 5. Let's assume 250 buses in total.
Now what's the average fuel consumption - quick scout around the Internet would imply around 2km/L for inner-city and I would estimate that each route is averaging 15kms and takes 45 minutes to complete (based on my experience of using). So that would imply in a day 6:00-00:00, 18 hours, with 15 minutes rest, it's 18x15x2=540L of diesel - I assume the bus has a huge tank and can hold this capacity without the need to return to depot. Maybe they can't go all day without fuel, maybe they cycle one out of the route and add one in every hour, I don't know.
But then, what capacity battery would be required to complete a day's work? I'm guessing it would be the same as the semi, which we don't know, but extrapolating from the consumption/km I think it's going to need around 700kWh. Now imagine the infrastructure needed to charge 250 buses in 6 hours, all in parallel. That's quite immense, not only from installing such super/mega-chargers, but on energy-drain. OK, would be distributed around several depots, but it's going to be challenging.
Given the above, I think FCH would be more practical. Not for general public use though, that's a no-go, totally.
Sorry for the long post, so early in the morning...
Today was an important day for TSLA trading because I believe it indicates that the shorts have lost momentum and there's likely not enough time to recover that momentum prior to good news about Model 3 production ramping higher.
As recently as late March, 2018, TSLA was trading at just a penny under $360. The descent to below $250, more than a $110 loss, was aggravated by delays in Model 3 production ramping, compounded by a truly amazing amount of FUD, short sellers increasing their holdings to the 40M shares mark, and lots of manipulations with short percentage of trading remaining about 60% of all selling during that time period. Some conservative investors became spooked by the massive effort by shorts and some don't want to jump back into the game until TSLA has effectively shaken off this dip and is trading back in the 300s. Fortunately, those days may be fast approaching.
Shorts have lost momentum because:
* Model 3 has been ramping up well in May
* Short interest has peaked and there's little reason for it to climb higher
* $275 has proven to be a solid support number, tested several times in the past couple of weeks
* With time likely just about out before sources reveal even higher Model 3 production rates, the potential dip from here looks really mild ($10?) but the upside looks huge ($150+?).
Bottom line: it's time for the smart shorts to leave (if they haven't already) and once the epic short holdings start to unwind, that unwinding by itself will be a powerful catalyst for further stock price appreciation, never mind the good news that gets the whole climb cranked up in the first place.
I'm optimistic. Nonetheless, certain events could further the interests of the longs or the shorts, depending how they turn out. For example, the over the air upgrade to Model 3 braking should indeed provide substantial (20 ft?) reductions in stopping distance for repeated rapid-stop events (allowing time for brakes to cool, etc.). If Consumer Reports finds some type of flaw, though, we could see some weakness until Tesla corrects that problem. I don't expect it, but it could change the short-term momentum. Some horrible autopilot-related accident could change the momentum, and a major negative macro event could too. Most important of all is Model 3 ramping. We longs aren't out of the woods yet, but the cards certainly favor our position at this point. I'm willing to bet on it (oops, I already have).
Just as a reminder, the easiest way to lose money as a TSLA long is becoming too confident in the timing or extent of the next run-up and buying the wrong call options or overextending yourself with margin buying. Buy some lottery tickets if you like, but be sensible with your primary investment in this company. Surprises are so common they are the norm, but ultimately this baby is going to fly so please don't spectate from the sidelines and wish you had taken advantage of the Spring of 2018 dip and please don't invest recklessly.
As recently as late March, 2018, TSLA was trading at just a penny under $360. The descent to below $250, more than a $110 loss, was aggravated by delays in Model 3 production ramping, compounded by a truly amazing amount of FUD, short sellers increasing their holdings to the 40M shares mark, and lots of manipulations with short percentage of trading remaining about 60% of all selling during that time period. Some conservative investors became spooked by the massive effort by shorts and some don't want to jump back into the game until TSLA has effectively shaken off this dip and is trading back in the 300s. Fortunately, those days may be fast approaching.
Shorts have lost momentum because:
* Model 3 has been ramping up well in May
* Short interest has peaked and there's little reason for it to climb higher
* $275 has proven to be a solid support number, tested several times in the past couple of weeks
* With time likely just about out before sources reveal even higher Model 3 production rates, the potential dip from here looks really mild ($10?) but the upside looks huge ($150+?).
Bottom line: it's time for the smart shorts to leave (if they haven't already) and once the epic short holdings start to unwind, that unwinding by itself will be a powerful catalyst for further stock price appreciation, never mind the good news that gets the whole climb cranked up in the first place.
I'm optimistic. Nonetheless, certain events could further the interests of the longs or the shorts, depending how they turn out. For example, the over the air upgrade to Model 3 braking should indeed provide substantial (20 ft?) reductions in stopping distance for repeated rapid-stop events (allowing time for brakes to cool, etc.). If Consumer Reports finds some type of flaw, though, we could see some weakness until Tesla corrects that problem. I don't expect it, but it could change the short-term momentum. Some horrible autopilot-related accident could change the momentum, and a major negative macro event could too. Most important of all is Model 3 ramping. We longs aren't out of the woods yet, but the cards certainly favor our position at this point. I'm willing to bet on it (oops, I already have).
Just as a reminder, the easiest way to lose money as a TSLA long is becoming too confident in the timing or extent of the next run-up and buying the wrong call options or overextending yourself with margin buying. Buy some lottery tickets if you like, but be sensible with your primary investment in this company. Surprises are so common they are the norm, but ultimately this baby is going to fly so please don't spectate from the sidelines and wish you had taken advantage of the Spring of 2018 dip and please don't invest recklessly.
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I always thought Tesla owners were smart people, but I think that was a rather naïve opinion... WTF is wrong with these people?
UPDATE 1-Tesla hits parked California police vehicle; driver blames 'Autopilot'
Police in Utah said data from Tesla showed that the driver enabled Autopilot about 1 minute and 22 seconds before the crash. The report said she took her hands off the steering wheel within two seconds of engaging the system and then did not touch the steering wheel for the next 80 seconds, until the crash happened.
UPDATE 1-Tesla hits parked California police vehicle; driver blames 'Autopilot'
Police in Utah said data from Tesla showed that the driver enabled Autopilot about 1 minute and 22 seconds before the crash. The report said she took her hands off the steering wheel within two seconds of engaging the system and then did not touch the steering wheel for the next 80 seconds, until the crash happened.
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