TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

In correlation with the general market bounceback, TSLA is starting its bounceback as well (of course magnified).

 

[Waiting4M3]

Depends on what they did. If they caused the system to mislabel incoming inventory, then that will be a pain to back correct due to the need to manually update the ground truth data/ physical inventory.

From the description that sounds likely. If they have a week of parts in stock, I would say as a WAG that they can check/correct the inventory in a few days, just grab a few thousand bar code readers, and put those thousands of shift workers on M3 line to work.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Why do I get the feeling he's just shaking down these Chinese elites for family emoluments?

Sorry about making a political statement here, but these tariff tantrums make no economic or even political sense. They are truly bad for Tesla.

It’s called negotiation. And if you are apologizing for making a political statement, maybe you shouldn’t be making one? Self control? There are other threads for that...

 

[mongo]

From the description that sounds likely. If they have a week of parts in stock, I would say as a WAG that they can check/correct the inventory in a few days, just grab a few thousand bar code readers, and put those thousands of shift workers on M3 line to work.

Oh sure, it's solvable, (Side note: I liked the Jurassic Park book much than the movie better due to just grepping for "white rabbit")
Real pain is an OEM without OTA and having the system put the wrong calibrations into the BCM...
Or two similar parts that are 'almost' interchangeable, like today's stock price and Thursdays.

 

[ruralectric]

Fidelity share lending rate down an 8th % to 1.375% today.

 

[Paracelsus]

It is difficult to appreciate how finely balanced the negative and positive pressures on the stock are at the moment. The email discussing sabotage sent the stock price unnecessarily negative IMO. And while shorts are hoping for more 'sabotage news', the stock could just as easily close positive with a singe tweet from Elon stating that all issues resulting from that sabotage effort have been remedied and the Model 3 production ramp is back on schedule.

 

[avoigt]

My comment on the Stock movement today: nothing changed

 

[Yggdrasill]

It is difficult to appreciate how finely balanced the negative and positive pressures on the stock are at the moment. The email discussing sabotage sent the stock price unnecessarily negative IMO. And while shorts are hoping for more 'sabotage news', the stock could just as easily close positive with a singe tweet from Elon stating that all issues resulting from that sabotage effort have been remedied and the Model 3 production ramp is back on schedule.

Why assume the sabotage had any impact on Model 3 production? The consequences are completely undisclosed. They could be limited to Tesla Energy, Model S/X, etc.

 

[hoang51]

In correlation with the general market bounceback, TSLA is starting its bounceback as well (of course magnified).

It's a nice bounce back up, but I'll still try and hold out buying back in cheaper shares... Sigh. Just gotta stick to my plan...

 

[Cosmacelf]

It’s the macro guys. Tesla is a high beta stock. Many other high beta stocks got hit just as hard if not harder. My prediction is that this trade war will continue to randomly beat on stocks for the next 3-6 months, and then start shooting up as solutions are found. Buy on weakness. DO NOT SELL. That’s some free advice, take it for what’s it worth (zero).

Btw everyone is calling the new manufacturing line enclosure a “tent”. It isn’t a tent. It is a Sprung structure, and is used worldwide when buildings are needed in a hurry. While this one isn’t, yet, they can be environmentally sealed. https://www.army-technology.com/contractors/field/sprung-structures2/

I guarantee you that every CEO worth a darn is admiring Elon’s ability to push Tesla, a 30,000 employee company, to move this fast. And do it while riffing 9% deadweight. Startups don’t even move this quickly...

 

[Paracelsus]

Why assume the sabotage had any impact on Model 3 production? The consequences are completely undisclosed. They could be limited to Tesla Energy, Model S/X, etc.

I am in full agreement with your thoughts. My comment was based on reading numerous attacks on Elon/TSLA on LinkedIn this morning regarding the note and linking it to M3 production and a Q2 miss as I posted earlier today. I am simply suggesting that the pendulum would quickly swing back the other way once the vile froth they are spewing is wiped-up by Elon simply tweeting 144 characters or less. For all of the reasons to dislike Twitter, I think it is important to realize that Elon has helped make Tesla successful with its use because it allows him a voice without edit.

 

[corduroy]

My strategy is to hold, buy more on dips, and only sell at a SP of $1,000 or above.

 

[DragonWatch]

Life is like bumper-cars. Sometimes you get bumped slightly, sometimes hard, and sometimes you get blindsided. The opposite is also true, you can gently bump someone, sometimes you can slam them, and on the extreme you can blindside them hard. Lucky me, I have never seen a fossil fuel bumper car

Elon/Tesla/SpaceX/Boring and flame tosser stands out in the middle of the arena with a bold red flag and says go left The business world is brutal, if not extremely brutal. While we do not see the bodies left on the battlefield, there are casualties everyday in the business world. Flags on the battlefield have a long tradition as the rally point, or a sign that we are still driving forward.

Elon’s red flag may look tattered to the weak, but it is still red and as long as he has electricity I am right there with him Never thought I would say an environmental flag was red, but hey

Here in rests my business lesson, speaking from a military point of view

 

[EngRyan]

To me the easiest way to look at the sabotage given what we know is the guy was just self serving. He could have put the wrong code in with a different user name so he could later "find it" and save the day to try and get a promotion. And then the third party stuff is he was looking too hard to prove to other companies how good he is and sending more than he should trying to get a new job. In which case Model 3 line is the one I would guess as it has the most changes and fixes going on at the moment and would be a good "save the day hero" candidate.

Never attribute to malice what you can attribute to stupidity. - Someone, ish

 

[EnzoXYZ]

It’s the macro guys. Tesla is a high beta stock. Many other high beta stocks got hit just as hard if not harder. My prediction is that this trade war will continue to randomly beat on stocks for the next 3-6 months, and then start shooting up as solutions are found. Buy on weakness. DO NOT SELL. That’s some free advice, take it for what’s it worth (zero).

Btw everyone is calling the new manufacturing line enclosure a “tent”. It isn’t a tent. It is a Sprung structure, and is used worldwide when buildings are needed in a hurry. While this one isn’t, yet, they can be environmentally sealed. https://www.army-technology.com/contractors/field/sprung-structures2/

I guarantee you that every CEO worth a darn is admiring Elon’s ability to push Tesla, a 30,000 employee company, to move this fast. And do it while riffing 9% deadweight. Startups don’t even move this quickly...

Agree.

I think there is a slightly increased concern on making the 5K/week which is amplified by the macros leading today’s price action.

Until we meet the 5K/week number we will have attacks to increase the fear and drive out weak longs.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

247... 347... what's the difference I'm getting so mixed up these days

Yeah, wake me up when it's $547. LOL!

Dan

 

[jhm]

It’s called negotiation.

How do you expect this "negotiation" will impact Tesla?

 

[RobStark]

I guarantee you that every CEO worth a darn is admiring Elon’s ability to push Tesla, a 30,000 employee company, to move this fast. And do it while riffing 9% deadweight. Startups don’t even move this quickly...

~43.5k after the RIF.

 

[Tslynk67]

I do hope all this sabre-rattling from Trump doesn't jeopardise the Tesla China GF deal. I don't think it will because the Chinese leadership are extremely competent and smart, they won't cut-off their nose to spite their face...

 

[Irishjugg]

I think most places would have hourly or daily disk backup that would include the code, and on longer time frame, off-site backup onto tapes. I imagine it wouldn't be too hard to restore the code that was damaged.

This is true, however just blanket "go back to last Tuesday" would also remove large amounts of positive changes.

Sadly this type of thing takes a while to work out, specifically since it said the guy used other people's accounts to do it.