i asked about the bonds in the other forum. you’ll probably see the alert as it ws your post i replied. is there a comprehensive post or series of posts that i can refer to on that? even maybe the best web site? just trying to play the lowest comm denom on that topic, so i can kinda get that around to my friends. thanks!!!
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i asked about the bonds in the other forum. you’ll probably see the alert as it ws your post i replied. is there a comprehensive post or series of posts that i can refer to on that? even maybe the best web site? just trying to play the lowest comm denom on that topic, so i can kinda get that around to my friends. thanks!!!
elon’s not even 50 yet
i agree. i hope we’re wrong. it’s fish in a barrel when volume is low... algos rule. a quick run up to pull in suckers and then a downdraft.
but, let’s see what else EM has up his sleeve. while i’m ecstatic that 5000 has been notched, im not sure it’s cause for immediate spike. in reality it should appease the market, but were not playing by our rules, the house is clearly against us. th next couple weeks could be much more like playing a rigged electronic poker machine, than say, at a hold’em table with 5 friends you know
i think the point is, this is a scenario in which it’s much more comfortable to have been in early, the security of being able to just watch it unfold, and enjoy the ride.
short term plays, being forced to trade on the release of data, bc of your higher price points...well some people live for that too!
i’m kinda in both camps. so i can see the enthusiasm from everyone’s (in TMC) point of view. but i sleep much better the higher my confidence level goes.
luckily (well, more accurately, was more a constant cultivation and maintenance of several positions for months on end, pain pleasure pain pleasure lol) i have some low price points on the shortest term stuff coming up. i’d like to keep at least 75% of my current unrealized PnL on those positions. the longer term stuff, and my stock...not too worried about. just some perspective is all.
i’ll tell you one thing though...helluva progress on that tesla team!!! can’t effing wait for my car!!!
It's hard to predict anything for certain because macro has a way of providing top cover for shorts that should have already been dead to rights.
I liken shorts to bamboo trees. Chop them down but they don't actually die. They keep growing back and sow enough uncertainty and doubt for finishing blows to be delivered.
It's going to take SUSTAINED good news to crack ATH resistance levels. What it will take to bankrupt short positions that go long would be something along the lines of
1 - 10K Model 3 Production
2 - Positive margins on 35K Model 3 cars
3 - Sales not impacted by dwindling tax credits
Being a cautious optimist, the 5000+ production at 60,000 ASP at least means 300,000,000 in revenue so running out of cash this year should not happen. Thats a big victory, but not a deathblow to shorts.
10,000 target was described a couple of months ago as turned into a much larger window as much as 6 or 9 months later than the original target (can’t remember precisely) or possibly still hitting the original target. Elon suggested it would be in the aftermath of hitting 5K/week that Tesla will assess what pathways are open to getting to 10K/week and how to balance speed vs. cash efficiency (basically working with existing equipment to eek out/modify more from it vs buying new equipment) in going from 5K to 10K in choosing a path.
what’s more, beyond a few weeks, let’s alone a few hours, obviously being of no consequence in hitting this goal, Elon said about the end of June, multiple times.
agreed, i said a few days ago i’d be thrilled just getting back to 370-375 for the time being.
when tsla goes rangebound we usually see ~$25 spread in that period. if it was able to range between 355 and 380 until q3 unfolds that would be huge in my opinion.
again, we’re playing against the house, so our rules don’t apply...
but even if no other announcements, i think the markets going to catch on to the fact that the conversion rate of awd to P is pretty decent after that price reduction, which means Q3 good, which means q4 better (yes they will exhaust the bulk of the higher margin vehicles, but also assume increased ramp and butters sold). TE penning project after project obv won’t hurt
either
macro obv wildcard, but even staying above the 335 level would be good in a bad environment. we def don’t want to see that 305-330 range again.
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They sort have been with the model 3 and the graph comparing to it's competitors.
Or Judith Miller & the Iraq war. Or the totally dishonest headline on the recount of the Presidential election in 2000 (Gore won, but you wouldn't know it from the headline).
Or the NYT reporting on tetraethyl lead in the *1920s* -- the New York World had the accurate reporting on *that* story, while the NYT was making excuses for the lead peddlers. The World was the newspaper of Joseph Pulitzer.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm eager to see a swift race take shape. At 1000 EVs per day, Tesla looks to take a decisive lead. Let's see who tries to challenge that lead. I expect the top challengers will come from China. As Tesla and Chinese companies step up the pace of the race, other major auto makers may fall well behind. They may never be able to match the pace and so lose massive market share in the long run. The race is just starting.
Anybody know what "factory gate" means? Is it in reference to like out of the factory gate and into the parking lot for delivery?
1,000 a day is big though, it's amazing what people can do when they work together.
Don't forget it's a marathon not a sprint and it's not too late for many of the automakers/oil producers to change direction. Wouldn't be surprised if Petro China or Aramco end up in batteries.
1,000 a day is big though, it's amazing what people can do when they work together.
Is that an environmental, safety, or quality restraint that is being manually over-ridden?
Nothing like that. It was a short gumming up the works. Now that they squashed it, things will run smoother.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
This is really great time for them all to go and read Bezos. If they don't disrupt themselves, someone else is gonna do it. Oil companies have money, brand and locations they can use to great effect. BP(or anyone else) can probably bring 5B to the table and announce that they want to build next GF with Tesla licensed technology. Tesla is first mover, but doesn't have money. First mover with money can get pretty sweet partnership deals and establish leading market position in a jiffy. Buy the best spot at the table. But they probably won't do it, as mindset of management is not there. Until they start really hurting and have mgmt. replaced...
jhm
Well-Known Member
Indeed, I'm talking about a race that ends in gas and diesel powered vehicle being eliminated from the market, about a 15 to 20 year cycle. Those who grab share in the EV market will be in the best position to hold that share as ICE is eliminated from the market.
Indeed. Monday could be a whipsaw session amid lingering question of M3 deliveries in Q2.i agree. i hope we’re wrong. it’s fish in a barrel when volume is low... algos rule. a quick run up to pull in suckers and then a downdraft.
but, let’s see what else EM has up his sleeve. while i’m ecstatic that 5000 has been notched, im not sure it’s cause for immediate spike. in reality it should appease the market, but were not playing by our rules, the house is clearly against us. th next couple weeks could be much more like playing a rigged electronic poker machine, than say, at a hold’em table with 5 friends you know
i think the point is, this is a scenario in which it’s much more comfortable to have been in early, the security of being able to just watch it unfold, and enjoy the ride.
short term plays, being forced to trade on the release of data, bc of your higher price points...well some people live for that too!
i’m kinda in both camps. so i can see the enthusiasm from everyone’s (in TMC) point of view. but i sleep much better the higher my confidence level goes.
luckily (well, more accurately, was more a constant cultivation and maintenance of several positions for months on end, pain pleasure pain pleasure lol) i have some low price points on the shortest term stuff coming up. i’d like to keep at least 75% of my current unrealized PnL on those positions. the longer term stuff, and my stock...not too worried about. just some perspective is all.
i’ll tell you one thing though...helluva progress on that tesla team!!! can’t effing wait for my car!!!
Now if we get even one unit greater than 30k confirmed, new buyers will flood in and shorts will stomp and claw over each other to get out. I have a hunch figures may post monday afternoon. If numbers are good, shorts will stampede on Tuesday to keep possitions from further exploding
on the 4th (when markets are closed though not quelled..)While I agree that getting a GA line up and running in 2 months or less should be easy for the Shanghai GF, they still need to build out environmentally controlled buildings for cell production, get the cell production equipment in place and spun up etc, plus also build out "paint booth". There's also all the logistics issues to worry about (building parts warehouses, etc). The actual stamping, BIW, and GA lines shouldn't be too hard to get going in a matter of months though, since copy and pasting them is a lot easier (they could probably all be built in sprung structures without any problems and don't require nearly as much environmental controls as cell production or paint booth).
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The ability to print a thousand reasonably priced vehicles a day was the last major automotive hurdle, I would be shocked if we don't see a fresh ATH this week. Time to start thinking about selling the auto piece to AAPL.
Personally I'm not all that impressed, the Chinese will soon be printing a more boring version of these by the tens of thousands daily(hopefully in partnership with TSLA). I want to see TSLA take over as utility for a major metropolitan area in the US. 100% renewables with grid Powerpack storage and aggregated decentralized Powerwalls. Let's goooooo!
Then Mars obviously.....
Personally I'm not all that impressed, the Chinese will soon be printing a more boring version of these by the tens of thousands daily(hopefully in partnership with TSLA). I want to see TSLA take over as utility for a major metropolitan area in the US. 100% renewables with grid Powerpack storage and aggregated decentralized Powerwalls. Let's goooooo!
Then Mars obviously.....
Ulmo
Active Member
The funny part is that is usually exactly when it is too late, thus all the destructive behavior whenever these things happen. The established players could easily position themselves for the future, but refuse to do so, preferring instead to go down.
To their credit, they're spending a lot dipping their toes in. Maybe at some point they can ______ (fill in the blank).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
elon’s not even 50 yet
And none of his girlfriends have celebrated a 35th birthday yet.
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