TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

it seems if you hold a short position, you can wait until you cover until after deal goes through

I'm... not clear on how that would work, even just on a logical level. If you're a short, who, exactly, are you going to buy the shares needed to cover from *after* the deal closes? After it closes, there are no public shares in existence and private shares can only be traded during "liquidity events" every 6 months.

 

[phil0909]

Martin Tripp (remember the 'saboteur' and 'hacker'?) is tweeting up a storm this afternoon. He's posting VINs of Teslas with allegedly damaged batteries and inventories of tens of millions of dollars worth of scrapped parts, with MOS reports and photos of scrap and vast quantities of storage containers.

Wonder how that will all turn out...

 

[Moderatefan]

I'm... not clear on how that would work, even just on a logical level. If you're a short, who, exactly, are you going to buy the shares needed to cover from *after* the deal closes? After it closes, there are no public shares in existence and private shares can only be traded during "liquidity events" every 6 months.

You just ask Elon nicely to sell his... he's got enough to cover all shorts and he's a nice guy.
He can then use this $1000/share proceeds to buy out those who don't roll in and want $420.
No funding needed for the deal to close other than shorts money, everybody wins.

 

[Jayjs20]

I'm... not clear on how that would work, even just on a logical level. If you're a short, who, exactly, are you going to buy the shares needed to cover from *after* the deal closes? After it closes, there are no public shares in existence and private shares can only be traded during "liquidity events" every 6 months.

What my friend MarcusMaximus means is, shorts should wait for as long as possible before covering. It'll be ok, Tesla is going to 0 anyways. If shorts start to cover, then the environmentalist win.

 

[PaulusdB]

I'm... not clear on how that would work, even just on a logical level. If you're a short, who, exactly, are you going to buy the shares needed to cover from *after* the deal closes? After it closes, there are no public shares in existence and private shares can only be traded during "liquidity events" every 6 months.

Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good bear trap.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

So essentially, I strongly feel. ..
1. deal gets approved, and stock goes to 420.
2. deal does not approved, and stock goes to 300.
3. No squeeze.

I'm curious what the thinking is on why it would go down to less than it was before the take private announcement if the deal does not get approved?

I ask because it's less than that now. Perhaps the opposite would be true at this point - deal does not get approved and stock rockets back up.

 

[phil0909]

I'm curious what the thinking is on why it would go down to less than it was before the take private announcement if the deal does not get approved?

I ask because it's less than that now. Perhaps the opposite would be true at this point - deal does not get approved and stock rockets back up.

Presumably deterioriation in Tesla's fundamentals and/or macroeconomic factors. Not everything is about the private buyout.

 

[renim]

It’s interesting legacy media outlets put on a hedge fund manager that has a significant investment in coal, allegedly 50% of fund, to bash Elon and Tesla without a disclosure of this fact.

It’s like not disclosing your guest who says Coca Cola is a fraud, has 50% fund stake in Pepsi.

Tesla Energy is a competitor of coal as is the rest of solar and energy storage industry.

Solar is the fastest growing new energy capacity builder in the USA. Coal is going in the opposite direction.

But yet networks don’t see it fit to announce this as their audience is forced to listen to this long coal investor attack on Tesla.

really?

perhaps not in California, but globally Tesla is great for coal.
take China for example, when tesla sells 100,000 EVs there and they are 65% powered by coal, and use say 25kwh per 100km, and 15,000km per year each, thats 243,750,000 kWh of coal power used each year for those Teslas, its mostly local coal, as opposed to an even greater amount of imported oil that it displaces. (100,000*0.65*(25/100)*15,000)

 

[notacoalminer]

I'm curious what the thinking is on why it would go down to less than it was before the take private announcement if the deal does not get approved?

I ask because it's less than that now. Perhaps the opposite would be true at this point - deal does not get approved and stock rockets back up.

Loss of confidence.
Unnecessary turmoil that wears down even the most ardent supporters.
News of a distasteful partner, to put it mildly, with which some of us do not want to be associated, and with potentially malevolent intentions.
Fatigue.
A sense of loss of purpose.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

really?

perhaps not in California, but globally Tesla is great for coal.
take China for example, when tesla sells 100,000 EVs there and they are 65% powered by coal, and use say 25kwh per 100km, and 15,000km per year each, thats 243,750,000 kWh of coal power used each year for those Teslas, its mostly local coal, as opposed to an even greater amount of imported oil that it displaces. (100,000*0.65*(25/100)*15,000)

Their cars might be(temporarily, at least). Their energy division is disastrous for coal.

 

[Ratanpara]

I beleive it was @Reciprocity who first called things pretty correctly, so props for that.

Elon, in fact did not "set a floor" at 425. He set the ceiling. He capped shorts losses. Funny, I never felt by holding LEAPS, I was taking too high a risk. While several are below 420, lots were in the 450-500 range . Between Tesla's growth, and ability to roll, it seemed rather safe.

As I missed the initial announcement day, I held my LEAPS, in hopes of a squeeze. Just sold them all for 50-80 per cent losses. That just plain sucks for a company that is "going to be profitable in Q3 and Q4".

IF, and that is a capitalized IF, the deal goes through, my other leaps below 420 should rebound, as with some shares.

There will be no squeeze. There is no one who "wants in" that will not buy at 330. There is no major fund that wont sell for 426 if the stock goes up, creating that aforementioned ceiling. Also (discussed with a hedge fund manager acquaintance ) it seems if you hold a short position, you can wait until you cover until after deal goes through, thereby him noting " he would never pay above 420". Why do I believe him...well simply, I do not have a three level hot tub, or even a hottub for that matter, he does, and its awesome.


So essentially, I strongly feel. ..
1. deal gets approved, and stock goes to 420.
2. deal does not approved, and stock goes to 300.
3. No squeeze.

Deep in my imagination, I like to feel that this is all part of some crazy hatched plan, and the stock will shoot up when revealed... but my gut tells me Elon acted impulsively.

So I sit here with my cognitive dissonance amplified. Tesla's master plan was to help save the world, and now they are making at least questionable decisions on future partners to do that with. (Pro-government Saudi Twitter account shares image of plane flying toward CN Tower amid spat with Canada | The Star) The first time in five years I questioned Elon's decision making ability was after his 'pedo' twitter comment. Now he called for the "short burn of the century", and not only that but when questioned about it , stood by his comments. Yet he inadvertently completely and utterly extinguished any possibility of that happening by capping short's losses. To make matters worse, he hurt some longs (yes I realize lots here think those who hold LEAPS are not true longs, and just gamblers) , and will be forcing out others (use whatever term you want, but intentional or not it is fact that some have to go). All for what? To not file a quarterly report? Is it that hard not to listen to FUD? To drive out shorts? which would of been driven out anyhow if your words hold true of profitable quarters ahead? Seems like Elon knows something we do not. Maybe he thinks he cannot keep his promises of profitability? Maybe he is tired and getting burnt out? Either way, while before I had 100 per cent trust in Tesla and its CEO, now I do not.

I think you are overly worried, Wall Street runs on quarterly earnings, to me Tesla current quarter guidance is too conservative, 50-55 K Model 3, they will do better then that, there are some evidence they getting close to 6K/weekly production, I think they will have blow out quarter, how do you think musk came up with 420.00 price ?, stock will be around 420 after having two good quarters in a row based on fundamentals.

 

[Moderatefan]

deal does not get approved and stock rockets back up.

And all it takes is 1 tweet - Am considering to reconsider taking Tesla private.

Isn't it amazing how simple these things are?

 

[tslagreen]

Loss of confidence.
Unnecessary turmoil that wears down even the most ardent supporters.
News of a distasteful partner, to put it mildly, with which some of us do not want to be associated, and with potentially malevolent intentions.
Fatigue.
A sense of loss of purpose.

Your post sounds more like a blog for disaffected spouses in a bad marriage - or maybe a bear searching for some lonesome cubs or weak longs.

 

[gringotuanis]

I'm curious what the thinking is on why it would go down to less than it was before the take private announcement if the deal does not get approved?

I ask because it's less than that now. Perhaps the opposite would be true at this point - deal does not get approved and stock rockets back up.

Then it will all depend on Q3 and profitability and the focus will shift back.

 

[gringotuanis]

If I have one wish, it's that Berkshire takes a piece. I don't care much for Warren / Charlie, but It will blow the minds of so many short sellers that call themselves value oriented, that the ensuing pandemonium would be hilarious.

This would be hilarious......... but Buffett wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole unless it drops significantly! He buys stuff with super low PE ratios.

 

[SinghCo]

Martin Tripp (remember the 'saboteur' and 'hacker'?) is tweeting up a storm this afternoon. He's posting VINs of Teslas with allegedly damaged batteries and inventories of tens of millions of dollars worth of scrapped parts, with MOS reports and photos of scrap and vast quantities of storage containers.

Wonder how that will all turn out...

This really bothers me. I've been a process engineer before and there can be scrap

Martin Tripp (remember the 'saboteur' and 'hacker'?) is tweeting up a storm this afternoon. He's posting VINs of Teslas with allegedly damaged batteries and inventories of tens of millions of dollars worth of scrapped parts, with MOS reports and photos of scrap and vast quantities of storage containers.

Wonder how that will all turn out...

I've been a process engineer and scraps is usual part of business. Especially on first runs, a lot of automation (not calibrated), etc... This kind of publicity convinces me going private is better so there is non of this short peddling.

 

[gringotuanis]

Your post sounds more like a blog for disaffected spouses in a bad marriage - or maybe a bear searching for some lonesome cubs or weak longs.

Well Musk definitely screwed up here. He likes to make his own life difficult I think. After awhile you wonder if he learns to keep his fingers in his pockets and off his phone.

 

[omarsultan]

perhaps not in California, but globally Tesla is great for coal.
take China for example, when tesla sells 100,000 EVs there and they are 65% powered by coal

That needs a bit of context. Current grid mix is 58% coal and the growth going forward is almost exclusively in renewables:

Sources:
World Energy Outlook 2017 China : Key Findings
Chinese coal-fired electricity generation expected to flatten as mix shifts to renewables - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

[jelloslug]

Martin Tripp (remember the 'saboteur' and 'hacker'?) is tweeting up a storm this afternoon. He's posting VINs of Teslas with allegedly damaged batteries and inventories of tens of millions of dollars worth of scrapped parts, with MOS reports and photos of scrap and vast quantities of storage containers.

Wonder how that will all turn out...

To me, it sounds like his "whistle blower" attempt fell flat.

 

[brian45011]

So if for some reason if/when Tesla goes private all one's TSLA shares in an IRA must be converted by first being "sold" and then the private shares "bought" within that IRA, the cash never leaving the account, why would that be a taxable event?

It's not. The issue is whether the IRA custodian allows non-publicly traded shares as an IRA holding.