TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

Maybe not.

Well, I just needed it under 310$ not to be called away.. ;-).. (another 9K in the bank.)

 

[Cattledog]

Well, after today, no dry powder. And I'm gonna upgrade my AWD Model 3 to an AWD Model 3 P. All in.

 

[tivoboy]

Did you buy 300 puts for EOD or short some shares?

Anyone can talk out of their ass with no consequence.

Still long 300 from a 263 entry a few months back. I've sold c calls 3x now and hit the $ mark each time. I was pretty sure that last week Id get called away THIS week, but here we are under 310$ (280 stk + 31$ option value) so it ain't happening. adjusted share price under 175. ;-)

And if you've followed my posts about price action I've been right each time. So there's that.

 

[lunitiks]

 

[Ratanpara]

This is just a amplified drama by media, otherwise if you listen to last conference call he expressed same feeling worned out etc. Best quality of Elon is he makes extremely rational decisions under pressure, Tesla pumping out over 5 K M3 thanks to Elon’s hard-work. He just need vacation.

 

[generalenthu]

Worst pnl day ever, thanks to the exposure added after the going private tweet. At least a couple of leaks on the going private work would help. Anyone other than Saudis and silver lake yet??

 

[Ludalicious]

Do you think you have the ability to -unlike everyone else - automatically know when you've hit the bottom? As a general rule, if you think you're deep in the "muck muck", you're pretty darned close and should be buying..

I really like Elon but lets look at the facts. As of Aug 1 the stock was worth about the same as today with Muck Muck. Now if nothing has changed figure wise Just how much value would one put on Mr Elon. I predict it's dipping into the mid-low 2's. That's the current value I see the company worth after Elon get's spanked.

 

[Causalien]

I hope you new shorts stay when the price rise. You guys always disappear when it does go up so we never get to enjoy rubbing it in your faces. Hence can never take you guys seriously.

 

[MXWing]

Still long 300 from a 263 entry a few months back. I've sold c calls 3x now and hit the $ mark each time. I was pretty sure that last week Id get called away THIS week, but here we are under 310$ (280 stk + 31$ option value) so it ain't happening. adjusted share price under 175. ;-)

Good for you, but the originally quoted post was meaningless.

You called people bagholders and you called sub 300. If you backed it up by selling 300 calls or buying 300 puts it would of actually meant something.

 

[Causalien]

Still long 300 from a 263 entry a few months back. I've sold c calls 3x now and hit the $ mark each time. I was pretty sure that last week Id get called away THIS week, but here we are under 310$ (280 stk + 31$ option value) so it ain't happening. adjusted share price under 175. ;-)

And if you've followed my posts about price action I've been right each time. So there's that.

Please link to your post where you actually made the move if you want to become the next oracle. It's simpler for you to take 1 minute to search your own history than everyone wasting their time.

 

[SGordB]

@tentonine
The gist of the article seemed to be saying Musk is not well, and considering tsla is a cult stock with Musk being the leader, that probably explains it even though most of it is not new and probably overly dramatic. The one thing that concerned me (aside from worrying about this kids) was the mention of concerns about shorts and the worst is yet to come. If tsla really is going to be profitable this quarter, Musk would have a pretty good handle on that by now, so why would he be worried about shorts if they are about to post profits? So hopefully all that talk about being profitable is not going to turn into an "oops we spoke too soon" sort of thing.

My reaction, too. I was taken aback that he would still be worrying about shorts destroying Tesla on the heels of “profitable from now on.” That said, is there anything a heavily short-biased media can’t spin into existentially threatening FUD no matter how much more Tesla achieves? On this very point, at least pundit has argued that profitability will surely torpedo Tesla’s valuation, imposing a traditional car company PE on it.

 

[EVMeister]

I really like Elon but lets look at the facts... Muck Muck..

Muck Muck. What is that anyway... The noise a filthy chicken makes?

 

[tivoboy]

Please link to your post where you actually made the move if you want to become the next oracle. It's simpler for you to take 1 minute to search your own history than everyone wasting their time.

If I have the time I might for you, but frankly i really don't care too much if at all. It's in the thread here. I'm just putting the information out there along the way. One can either look & listen or not. It's up to them.

I know my long term hit rate, nobody would believe it so I'm not even going to post it.

update: here's the link with the cc sell info.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

my order summaries are on stocktwits.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Got killed today .... argh .... not sure what's worse:

The drubbing WS gave me or having to endure listening to that jackass Bob Lutz on CNBC ....

I take that back ... listening to Bob Lutz was worse.

Cheers to the longs .... better days ahead.

 

[EV forever]

Regarding today’s sell:

I’m in the camp that believes today’s price action is driven by fear and irrationality. No matter if the Saudi deal falls apart or not, the fundamentals of Tesla’s goal remain intact.

We all know Q3 delivery guidance will be 50-55k, which will make us slightly profitable, so what’s the worry? To me, the strength of Tesla’s future doesn’t hinge on the Saudi deal, but rather our ability to produce 5k-6k Model 3s per week. With vin registration being registered at breakneck speed, this drop feels very temporary and emotionally driven. Tesla’s future at this point in time is stronger than it has ever been and we all know a 70 point turnaround in Tesla SP can be as simple as waiting 2-4 weeks. Times like these separate the rookies from the veterans, in the end experience will win the day and inexperience will teach many a hard lesson.

Agree wholeheartedly. I am still very much a rookie on Tesla, just investing as a long since 2014. But I did add more today towards the end of the day. 305.5 feels really cheap

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Got killed today .... argh .... not sure what's worse:

The drubbing WS gave me or having to endure listening to that jackass Bob Lutz on CNBC ....

I take that back ... listening to Bob Lutz was worse.

Cheers to the longs .... better days ahead.

It would serve us all well to remember who Bob Lutz is and what he has done to help/hurt Tesla. Somewhere here on the web is his past quotes, I will try to find them so we can see how this seasoned commentary stacks up.
But, I'm VERY confident, his track record could border on a pinocchio.
Here is a 3 second search:
Bob Lutz slams Tesla’s future prospects, says if you like electric cars ‘buy one while they’re still available’

Tesla just rolled out 2 new vehicles, but an ex-top GM exec thinks its 'going out of business'

Bob Lutz Tesla comments - Yahoo Video Search Results

Bob Lutz Tesla comments - Yahoo Search Results

Why can't people search this p-- poor commentators BS??

 

[MXWing]

If I have the time I might for you, but frankly i really don't care too much if at all. It's in the thread here. I'm just putting the information out there along the way. One can either look & listen or not. It's up to them.

I know my long term hit rate, nobody would believe it so I'm not even going to post it.

update: here's the link with the cc sell info.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

my order summaries are on stocktwits.

Thanks, very impressive you predicted a NYT interview with Elon Musk at the end of July that would be published in time for August monthly expiration.

What do you think happens next?

 

[Johan]

Way to many armchair quarterbacks are coming out of the woodwork ATM with too many opinions of what Elon Musk should have done, shouldn't have done, said, tweeted, that he should have said more, less, something else, exactly the same but sooner, or later, that he shouldn't work 120 hour weeks, that maybe he should work harder. Lots of people get hung up on the short term drops and spikes in share price (understandable of you're day trading or doing option plays). But everyone: This is exactly why taking Tesla private is the correct thing to do. Now the nitty-gritty details of how to do that optimally are known to exactly no one, including Mr. Musk. There are just too many moving parts, the stock market is too complex for anyone, including any of us or Elon, to predict short term. All explanations hinge on confirmation bias and self fulfilling prophecies. Add to that an unprecedented short interest over many years (unprecedented for a large cap stock) and a level of vitriolic resistance to what Tesla is trying to accomplish and add to that a well funded, influential FUD-producing monster machine working day and night in order to relentlessly beat down on Tesla and Elon - no holds barred and with a blatant disregard for any notion of truth (it's like living in a postmodernistic dystopic bubble where the concept of objective truth is non-existent). It's distracting, energy draining and over time hurts Tesla, it's employees, Elon himself and Tesla's mission.

I have no idea how this will end investment wise for us all but the recent past makes me really sympathize with Elon and Tesla and I completely understand where his desire to give the short sellers a final third degree burn that will give them some permanent scars stems from.

End rant.

 

[neroden]

One thing that still seems a mystery is the low Q3 guidance of Model 3 production of 50-55k - which suggests a manufacturing rate of 3,850-4,230/week - well below 5k/week sustained.

Is this:

• Due to the Panasonic cell manufacturing bottleneck at the Gigafactory?
• ---->Due to a planned shotdown in Q3 for upgrades, which would lower the rate?<---
• Or is it simply conservative guidance they expect to beat? (Which would be a first for Tesla, so color me sceptical ...)

We're halfway through Q3. They only hit 5k/week sustained recently. Even a short shutdown would get us to 55K.

 

[KarenRei]

It would serve us all well to remember who Bob Lutz is and what he has done to help/hurt Tesla. Somewhere here on the web is his past quotes, I will try to find them so we can see how this seasoned commentary stacks up.
But, I'm VERY confident, his track record could border on a pinocchio.
Here is a 3 second search:
Bob Lutz slams Tesla’s future prospects, says if you like electric cars ‘buy one while they’re still available’

Tesla just rolled out 2 new vehicles, but an ex-top GM exec thinks its 'going out of business'

Why can't people search this p-- poor commentators BS??

I've mentioned it before, but: whenever I see "Lutz", my mind automatically jumps to "Putz". This is, after all, the guy who stated that his reasoning for the initial (ultimately totally wrong) pricing for the Volt was, "Batteries are expensive, motors are cheap, so we'll just take the cost to make a gas car, tack on the cost of the battery, and that's what the car should cost".

Huh? Did he never bother to look at how expensive "reasonably powerful" EV motors and inverters were back then? They were crazy expensive. The prices have since gone way down, but the fact that he went off on announcing car pricing without even bothering to look up what any EV amateur at the time could have told him... it just amazes me.