TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

One thing that I notice in the last few days is - what appears to be a support level one day falls the next. We saw that with 320, 310, 300, 290 and now we are at 280. Any reason 280 would hold while the others didn't ?

 

[bdy0627]

Feels like the bottom today (or maybe the MMD tomorrow).

Same thoughts here. If there is a MMD tomorrow, that's buy time for anyone with any dry powder left. It may just start green and stay that way though.

 

[Navin]

FWIW - I’ve been investing / trading in Tesla for the past 2.5 years. Mostly Calls / Shares with the occasional Puts. Trade on both fundamentals and technicals. Today - I bought more than at any one point in time. Feels like today was the bottom. Could dip a bit tomorrow am but should close out the Day green.

 

[bdy0627]

Elon going on Joe Rogan tomorrow. Any predictions on if he'll say something to crash our stock prices some more?

No more bear traps please, Elon. We've had so many lately I've lost count.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

One thing that I notice in the last few days is - what appears to be a support level one day falls the next. We saw that with 320, 310, 300, 290 and now we are at 280. Any reason 280 would hold while the others didn't ?

Well I guess that depends on what Elon says on Joe Rogan tomorrow doesn't it?
I can't believe I am invested in a company where I'm constantly worried about what the CEO is going to tweet or say next. It's slightly worse than having that guy from The Apprentice as President of the United States and wondering which random dictator he's going to threaten next on Twitter.

 

[Revhappy2]

One thing that I notice in the last few days is - what appears to be a support level one day falls the next. We saw that with 320, 310, 300, 290 and now we are at 280. Any reason 280 would hold while the others didn't ?

I dont think support exists at every $10 intervals. More likely that it exists at $20 intervals. So 320, 300, 280 and next 250.

 

[Xpert]

On market action ish...at this level I'd like to add to my position a bit but part of me is worried Elon might...pull an Elon on Joe Rogan Thursday evening. Thoughts?

Tsla is on the cusp of long term profitability, significant margin increase, good production ramp progress, and potentially doubling production/revenue/profit with china factory in just 2 years. Not to mention potential upside/catalysts with battery, solar, semi, autonomous driving.

When folks freak out about Elon’s next inspiring interview, it is definitely time to load up (buy the news!) I plan to convert a ton of shares back to LEAPS tomorrow at the usual opening dip. IMO Worst case tlsa drops to $250, upside might be $500 in a year, the odds seem pretty good to me.

 

[neroden]

I believe the old lease units would be carried at their current book value until sold.

You would be wrong. Do you know the old accounting principle "lesser of cost or market"?

 

[neroden]

Random idea, what if they take these used vehicles and put them into their loaner fleet? Does that change the accounting? With the amount of model 3s being delivered, even with the same warranty rate as S & X, they are going to need a lot more loaners. Using used loaners is more cost effective than taking the depreciation hit using new vehicles I'd imagine. Just an idea, no real accounting background to speak of haha

Oh, that would work. I would love to see some indication of it; every service center has had a loaner shortage. I'd love it if they'd use old vehicles as loaners so that the loaners would stop getting sold out from under them.

I don't think they're doing this but I do think they should.

I want to be able to get a Tesla loaner *every* time my car is in the shop, and never have to deal with an Enterprise gasser. And the only way this will be possible is if they use old cars for loaners; when they use new cars, they get sold out from under them very fast.

 

[imherkimer]

On market action ish...at this level I'd like to add to my position a bit but part of me is worried Elon might...pull an Elon on Joe Rogan Thursday evening. Thoughts?

If you are worried about that then don’t invest in Tesla. Ever.

 

[KSilver2000]

Well I guess that depends on what Elon says on Joe Rogan tomorrow doesn't it?
I can't believe I am invested in a company where I'm constantly worried about what the CEO is going to tweet or say next. It's slightly worse than having that guy from The Apprentice as President of the United States and wondering which random dictator he's going to threaten next on Twitter.

+100

I feel like a broken record when I say that I truly wish Musk would stay off of Twitter.

 

[ggr]

Don't forget CPO cars are no longer put back to near original condition and they also do not get the $7,500 FITC. Tesla already has a list of 5-10k mile new 2017s and 2018's. Why would anyone take a CPO unit for about the same price without the FITC? A CPO car is still a used car.

I would guess they will leave the lease returns on the books and take the new sale now. But when they dispose of the early lease returns that first year depreciation hit could be tough. The lessors may also want their expected profit from the 3 yr cash flow, but I have never dug into the Tesla lease arrangements.

In other words, "I have no clue, but I'll post this anyway."

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rogan's podcasts are like three hours long-the odds that Elon will say something that folks looking for a negative headline can grasp onto asymptotically approach 100%.

Yeah, no kidding. Should I load up on Sep 18 $235 Calls? /S

But seriously, FUDmuckers can Kilo-Mike-Alpha, and Tesla $4K in 2025

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Buckminster]

Neroden - this is the first post I feel compelled to "like". I don't have the button yet! Thank you so much for cheering me up - great thinking as always.

I'm still trying to figure out under what circumstances Tesla would make a profit by getting the leased cars returned early. Market value for the cars is easy enough to figure out; what's less easy to figure out is what the current value of the value of the remaining term of the lease + the car being returned at the end of the lease was to Tesla.

It's possible that Tesla feels that the cars are going to be worth more now than the remaining lease payments + the value at the end of the lease.

Or -- I think I might have figured it out. Under the leasing standards, the leasing revenue isn't recognized all at once, but is stretched out over the lease lifetime (vaguely related to the cash payments). Reclaiming the car and *selling it* (not re-leasing it) realizes the revenue *in Q3* rather than over the next year. It's revenue pullforward, as well as cash-positive.

I wonder if Tesla is only doing this with direct leases, because that would make sense.

On third-party leases or sold-off-to-third-party leases, Tesla gets all their money upfront and recognizes the revenue upfront, which is clearly what's wanted. Tesla really doesn't want to be in the direct lease financing business *at all*, from an accounting perspective (similar to the reasons why they don't want SolarCity to lease solar panels). Maybe the old direct leases aren't packagable/resaleable (too few, terms too inconsistent).

So there's my hypothesis. Just a hypothesis at this point, though. Not fully comfortable with it.

 

[Revhappy2]

I dont think support exists at every $10 intervals. More likely that it exists at $20 intervals. So 320, 300, 280 and next 250.

Somebody on twitter is making fun of me

 

[MartinAustin]

So Elon re-tweeted to InsideEVs' numbers... giving them some juicy publicity.

Should we regard their guesswork as pretty accurate then?

(or just positions #1, #2 and #3, which isn't saying much)

 

[Xpert]

So Elon re-tweeted to InsideEVs' numbers... giving them some juicy publicity.

Should we regard their guesswork as pretty accurate then?

(or just positions #1, #2 and #3, which isn't saying much)

Most likely just the positions.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Look at me I'm e-famous on some bear's Twitter
When do I get my own TV show guys

 

[AudubonB]

Being utterly ignorant of the gentleman, I just read the entire wiki bio of Joe Rogan.

Thus having done the appropriate due diligence, and therefore qualified to ask the following...would someone PLEASE tell me why you - and more importantly, quite a number of other TMC forum members - are so excited about the upcoming podcast? Is there any reason to expect anything questions of substance; any insightful probings?

 

[Matias]

I can think of a million reasons why they aren’t buying/making any buying known..
.

Please tell couple of them.