TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

$TSLA short interest $10.19 billion, 35.21 million shares short, 27.61% of float. @Tesla 1.6 million shares sold sort this week, $460 million, moving ahead of $AMZN and behind $AAPL. https://www.s3partners.net/Research/20180914_153100_TSLA20.php?v=1 … https://shortingtesla.com/

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Thats pretty crazy:

The chard looks really healthy, the market still underestimates what the Q3 numbers will/can bring, all FUD did not have any effect, and every day passing people may reconsider. Still shorts are investing as if there is no tomorrow...

I abandoned the view that all shorts intend to make money. Sounds strange but I expect some of the larger manipulators have funds they received approval to lose if they manage to keep the SP under control. They figured thats financially a good deal. One day that will be discovered but it may take decades.

 

[avoigt]

I will caution that I currently believe the bottlenecks on production are not in final assembly, or paint, or body. So they won't be able to maintain 8000/week until they fix bottlenecks further back in the supply chain. That said, I am also certain that those bottlnecks are currently being fixed (and may all be fixed by the end of the month).

Do you have sources to back that up? Its okay to believe but better to know...

 

[lklundin]

I think we will close above 295. But why they try this hard today to cap 296? 4 times today the SP was over 296 but got push down right away. Anyone?

Now that the trading is over for this week, I would appreciate if someone could to try to explain an honest novice question regarding this selling.

If I understand the above post correctly, it implies that some unknown trader is deliberately selling significant amounts of stock within a short time, with the reasonable expectation that this sudden extra supply will cause the SP to drop. It seems to also be an accepted understanding here, that the bulk selling happens while the SP is trending upwards, disrupting that trend.

This trading pattern is thus described to me in a way that implies that it is a deliberate money losing activity (since it should be preferable to not sell the stock while it is trending upwards).

The trader can hardly expect to be able to resupply (i.e. buy back the same stock) within the same time frame because that extra demand would cause the price to go back up, thus negating the whole (implied) premise of the bulk selling.

So there must be a trader out there, who in advance and in small portions (to not cause the SP to increase) buys up a significant amount of stock, just to be ready to dump it, right when it seems like a good idea to hold on to it.

Or is it a trader with some serious collateral that short sells the large amounts of stock, causing the SP to fall, after which they can hope to buy it back at the new lower price (but running the risk of not managing that and instead having to cover at a loss)?

Since stock trading is all about making money, who would engage in such a seemingly suboptimal trading scheme?

I will speculate myself, that it could be someone who is willing to risk sacrificing money while trading TSLA, in order to win (or avoid losing more) in a different arena, maybe a different stock that stands to incur greater losses should the TSLA SP increase too much.

Any actually informed guesses (unlike my own) to this conspicuous selling would be appreciated.

Thanks.

 

[dandurston]

The chard looks really healthy....

Glad to hear your garden is doing well.

 

[hobbes]

I will caution that I currently believe the bottlenecks on production are not in final assembly, or paint, or body. So they won't be able to maintain 8000/week until they fix bottlenecks further back in the supply chain. That said, I am also certain that those bottlnecks are currently being fixed (and may all be fixed by the end of the month).

Why would they limit paint options if that wasn´t (going to be?) one bottleneck?

If they have had problems sourcing some parts, maybe they slowed down production somewhat deliberately (slowdown described in electrek article) so they could make a push at quarter end and claim 6000/week at that time. If they now see that resolved, maybe they were figuring paint was going to be the next bottleneck and took care of that ahead of time. Just reading tea leaves though.

 

[Nate the Great]

Thats pretty crazy:

The chard looks really healthy, the market still underestimates what the Q3 numbers will/can bring, all FUD did not have any effect, and every day passing people may reconsider. Still shorts are investing as if there is no tomorrow...

I abandoned the view that all short intend to make money. Sounds strange but I expect some of the larger manipulators have funds they received approval to lose if they manage to keep the SP under control. They figured thats financially a good deal. One day that will be discovered but it may take decades.

I wonder how much of this is a bear trap?

Especially the smoking part, EM (not an idiot).

 

[defc0n]

Thats pretty crazy:

This is great news. Not a guarantee of things to come in the near term, but it certainly doesn’t help the bear case.

Hoping Tesla knocks it out of the park the next few weeks for production & deliveries.

 

[hobbes]

$TSLA short interest $10.19 billion, 35.21 million shares short, 27.61% of float. @Tesla 1.6 million shares sold sort this week, $460 million, moving ahead of $AMZN and behind $AAPL. https://www.s3partners.net/Research/20180914_153100_TSLA20.php?v=1 … https://shortingtesla.com/

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Worth reading the whole article, not just the tweet:

Large long shareholders such as Baillie Gifford, Capital Group, Jennison Associates and Harbor Capital are not only holding onto their positions but, according to Bloomberg, increasing them.

 

[dondy]

Why would they limit paint options if that wasn´t (going to be?) one bottleneck?

If they have had problems sourcing some parts, maybe they slowed down production somewhat deliberately (slowdown described in electrek article) so they could make a push at quarter end and claim 6000/week at that time. If they now see that resolved, maybe they were figuring paint was going to be the next bottleneck and took care of that ahead of time. Just reading tea leaves though.

Paint shop is a natural bottleneck, you need space for cabins, you need space for ovens etc.
You can do separated paint hops for every color but I don't think Tesla has space for it.
Every switch of the cabin to new color is time, a lot of extra paint, and extra work time.
I expect they dropped least used paint colors to optimize workload of the paint-shop.

 

[tivoboy]

Thats pretty crazy:

The chard looks really healthy, the market still underestimates what the Q3 numbers will/can bring, all FUD did not have any effect, and every day passing people may reconsider. Still shorts are investing as if there is no tomorrow...

I abandoned the view that all shorts intend to make money. Sounds strange but I expect some of the larger manipulators have funds they received approval to lose if they manage to keep the SP under control. They figured thats financially a good deal. One day that will be discovered but it may take decades.

Do you have this chart that goes back to February 2018?

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA is now 4% higher than $281, which was the closing price prior to the Joe Rogan Experience interview.

Actually only took 2 days of trading to close higher than $281. I felt like it was a bigger trauma than that!

I think investors can safely put that episode behind them. (and consign it to the Legend Bin) Hopefully Elon enters a quiet period between now and the Q3 deliveries announcement

 

[avoigt]

No, that's 2,300 cars of all types in 2 days. That's a rate of 8,050 cars per week. We know S/X productIon is steady near 2,000 per week, so that's about 6000 Model 3s in a week, or about 850 per day, which is OUTSTANDING progress on production, AND EXACTLY ON GUIDANCE! Now let's see how long that burst can be sustained.

No wonder Elon feels comfortable enough now with production to move on the next biggest problem, which is delivery and customer communications.

GO ELON!

You guys are right, I misread his sentence about the 2,300

Just listened to Freds Podcast:

Last week: 4,400 M3, Total: 6,900 S3X
Last 2 days: 2,300 S3X

 

[MarcusMaximus]

You guys are right, I misread his sentence about the 2,300

Just listened to Freds Podcast:

Last week: 4,400 M3, Total: 6,900 S3X
Last 2 days: 2,300 S3X

That’s a lot of S3X!

 

[capster]

Now that the trading is over for this week, I would appreciate if someone could to try to explain an honest novice question regarding this selling.

If I understand the above post correctly, it implies that some unknown trader is deliberately selling significant amounts of stock within a short time, with the reasonable expectation that this sudden extra supply will cause the SP to drop. It seems to also be an accepted understanding here, that the bulk selling happens while the SP is trending upwards, disrupting that trend.

This trading pattern is thus described to me in a way that implies that it is a deliberate money losing activity (since it should be preferable to not sell the stock while it is trending upwards).

The trader can hardly expect to be able to resupply (i.e. buy back the same stock) within the same time frame because that extra demand would cause the price to go back up, thus negating the whole (implied) premise of the bulk selling.

So there must be a trader out there, who in advance and in small portions (to not cause the SP to increase) buys up a significant amount of stock, just to be ready to dump it, right when it seems like a good idea to hold on to it.

Or is it a trader with some serious collateral that short sells the large amounts of stock, causing the SP to fall, after which they can hope to buy it back at the new lower price (but running the risk of not managing that and instead having to cover at a loss)?

Since stock trading is all about making money, who would engage in such a seemingly suboptimal trading scheme?

I will speculate myself, that it could be someone who is willing to risk sacrificing money while trading TSLA, in order to win (or avoid losing more) in a different arena, maybe a different stock that stands to incur greater losses should the TSLA SP increase too much.

Any actually informed guesses (unlike my own) to this conspicuous selling would be appreciated.

Thanks.

There are “irrational” actors on both the bull and bear side — irrational in the sense that they are not strictly looking at Tesla/TSLA in isolation. Both sides are using their money to try to shape the future. Rather than offer an advice, I’d merely suggest that you consider the consequences of this supposition.

BTW, I’m long — very and firmly.

 

[Motor Mouth]

TSLA is now 4% higher than $281, which was the closing price prior to the Joe Rogan Experience interview.

Actually only took 2 days of trading to close higher than $281. I felt like it was a bigger trauma than that!

I think investors can safely put that episode behind them. (and consign it to the Legend Bin) Hopefully Elon enters a quiet period between now and the Q3 deliveries announcement

It's possible that "episode" was - despite a bit of hoopla - a non-event for those with an investment horizon of more than 10 days.

 

[avoigt]

Do you have this chart that goes back to February 2018?

I don't but you can search in Ihors Twitter Account and should find that info.

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) | Twitter

 

[donauker]

Paint shop is a natural bottleneck, you need space for cabins, you need space for ovens etc.
You can do separated paint hops for every color but I don't think Tesla has space for it.
Every switch of the cabin to new color is time, a lot of extra paint, and extra work time.
I expect they dropped least used paint colors to optimize workload of the paint-shop.

But they didn't actually drop the colors they just called them "limited edition" and raised the price of them. Following quote is from their notification email.

Starting Friday, Metallic Silver and Obsidian Black Metallic will only be offered as off-menu, limited edition colors at $2,000.

 

[Krugerrand]

Probably end today

BTW, I’m long — very and firmly.

TMI

 

[MarcusMaximus]

But they didn't actually drop the colors they just called them "limited edition" and raised the price of them. Following quote is from their notification email.

“This will be effective on Thursday, September 13, 2018, after which Metallic Silver and Obsidian Black Metallic will be offered only as limited edition colors via special request at a cost of $2,000 only until Friday, September 21, 2018”

Seems even with the $2k, only available until next Friday.

 

[MP3Mike]

But they didn't actually drop the colors they just called them "limited edition" and raised the price of them. Following quote is from their notification email.

It probably means that once they process the current orders for those colors, in the next 2-4 weeks, that they will probably only make cars in those colors every month or two. (Or they will want until they have a big enough batch to make it worth the effort of changing the paint color out.)