TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Amazing that you can have a day with such good Model 3 news, positive macros, and a negative TSLA day. But I shouldn't be surprised at how nonsensical this stock has been lately.

No matter. It will all begin reacting sensibly in very short order...

They are just postponing the inevitable.

 

[DFibRL8R]

I understand the need to crash cars for testing but why use the sport wheels for FFS?

I'm paying for that!

Not helping the bottom line here.

The wheels look fine, tires didn't even puncture! You should make NHTSA an offer to pick 'em up on the cheap.

 

[MXWing]

The wheels look fine, tires didn't even puncture! You should make NHTSA an offer to pick 'em up on the cheap.

I do wonder what happens to those vehicles after testing...

But I noticed the tests can’t possible be accurate. Driver should have had head turned to the back of the car to yell at the kids.

Hands should have been underneath the wheel pushing up to try and apply pressure to get that stupid EAP nag to go away. Right thumb should have been pressed down on the button to try and tell Slacker to play "Let it go by Idina Menzel" for the nth time - but it wont because Slacker is a POS and I hope the contract expires soon so we can have Spotify.

Passenger should have had head turned to yell and nag at the driver.

Not sure if that’s typical. It is for me.

 

[Ratanpara]

I Think Tesla need to close above 300 to vanish short signal.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I understand the need to crash cars for testing but why use the sport wheels for FFS?

I'm paying for that!

Not helping the bottom line here.

SHORTSVILLE TIMES

18” Aero Wheels Incapable of Achieving Crash Test Speeds

 

[shootformoon]

View attachment 336695I Think Tesla need to close above 300 to vanish short signal.

Funny, Americanbulls recommends to short the only innovative american car company.

 

[RobStark]

I do wonder what happens to those vehicles after testing...

They get sold at Salvage auctions.

Usually to junk yards to sell for parts.

Or crazy guys that want to rebuild them in their back yards to make them road worthy again.

 

[ggr]

uhhh Let's hope you are wrong. Otherwise, after hitting $375 on the day Q3 production and delivery numbers come out it will plummet back to $200 by 10/5. Have you looked at TLRY today? OUCH!

It's still up over 15% from tuesday close.

I think the moral is that when you see that kind of ridiculous jump up, like in the case of a short squeeze, sell gradually on the way up. It will collapse back down, but usually not to the level it started at.

Edit: TLRY almost exactly doubled to the peak on Wednesday, and is now 15.2% up from Tuesday close. The corresponding numbers for TSLA would be $574 and $330 approximately. I'll take it.

 

[oneday]

SHORTSVILLE TIMES

18” Aero Wheels Incapable of Achieving Crash Test Speeds

SHORTSVILLE TIMES

Tesla has such little demand they don’t know what else to do with their cars but destroy them.

 

[X Fan]

Anyone see this tweet?

 

[winfield100]

And you thought all SA authors were bearish. $1 billion sounds bullish to me.

there is a hysterically funny comment that you left out from the article
"...Tesla’s Q3 delivery numbers will be better than many expect and I fear that up to $650 million of unexpected regulatory credits will give rise to paroxysms of ecstasy among Tesla longs who will undoubtedly bid the stock price to unsustainable nosebleed highs..."

 

[Mokuzai]

• Your trip took ~16 hours,

• Fremont to Seattle is 825 miles,

I’m in Seattle now but those counts were from Valencia to Sacramento at the beginning of the trip so those trucks were headed south towards LA.

It took about 7 hours to make that trip with 2 charging stops at 30 mins each.

Also sorry I’m way behind on this thread from nonstop driving and charging/napping.

 

[elasalle]

Observation
TSLA puffs weed SP down
TLRY sells tonnes of weed SP spikes like crazy ...

 

[Artful Dodger]

It will all begin reacting sensibly in very short order...

I think that's unlikely. That would imply the groups trying to destroy Tesla stop believing they can do so by cutting off Tesla's access to capital. Two big events will have to happen before these groups give up on their thesis:

1. Tesla pays off it's 2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1 bonds with cash generated from operations ('not just refi-ing' as Elon stated is his intention)
2. Tesla begins production at GF3/Shanghai without accessing the capital markets (possibly 2021 H1)

When these two events make it undeniable that Tesla has successfully slipped the leash of Wall Street, then the SP will start to reflect its intrinsic value based on revenue. By then I expect Tesla will be a $250B company.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

I think that's unlikely. That would imply the groups trying to destroy Tesla stop believing they can do so by cutting off Tesla's access to capital. Two big events will have to happen before these groups give up on their thesis:

1. Tesla pays off it's 2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1 bonds with cash generated from operations ('not just refi-ing' as Elon stated is his intention)
2. Tesla begins production at GF3/Shanghai without accessing the capital markets (possibly 2021 H1)

When these two events make it undeniable that Tesla has successfully slipped the leash of Wall Street, then the SP will start to reflect its intrinsic value based on revenue. By then I expect Tesla will be a $250B company.

Cheers!

What I wrote was shorthand for “soon it’s gonna go up when it should go up”.

i.e. when Q3 info comes out, price will go up as it should. It feels to me like positive Q3 results will overwhelm stupid FUD tactics that are temporarily effective for a day.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What I wrote was shorthand for “soon it’s gonna go up when it should go up”.

i.e. when Q3 info comes out, price will go up as it should. It feels to me like positive Q3 results will overwhelm stupid FUD tactics that are temporarily effective for a day.

I don't even think there were any FUD tactics that did anything today. It looked to me like purely times enormous sell orders to drive the price down.

 

[Joe F]

Also sorry I’m way behind on this thread from nonstop driving and charging/napping.

Napping? AutoPilot Buddy, orange, or water bottle? IMWTK!

 

[dmckinstry]

Passenger should have had head turned to yell and nag at the driver.

Not sure if that’s typical. It is for me.

Me too. Actually she doesn't yell. Just talks to herself and flinches in fear about possible situations that I've seen several seconds earlier that can be avoided just by taking my foot off the accelerator.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What I wrote was shorthand for “soon it’s gonna go up when it should go up”.

i.e. when Q3 info comes out, price will go up as it should. It feels to me like positive Q3 results will overwhelm stupid FUD tactics that are temporarily effective for a day.

Did you watch TSLA from July 2-4? Before market open on Mon Jul 2, Elon tweeted Tesla had produced over 5,000 Model 3s in the past 7 days, thus achieving their goal for end-of-Q2 production rate. TSLA opened up nearly $20 vs Friday's close, and rose to $364.78 in early trading.

Then a Wall St analyst released a note to clients saying 'it can't last'. And it didn't, at least not the SP, which plunged $30 in 3 hrs, finally bottoming out at $296.22 on Thu, Jul 5. That's a $70 haircut based on some idiot's opinion, which is readily available for purchase on Wall St, fact-lite, and greedily consumed. Here's an after-action report:

CNBC.com Jul 2, 2018 -- Tesla drops after analyst says its production rate is not 'sustainable'

So here we are now, 78 days later, and TSLA was $298.33 at close today. Next, after proving Model 3 is sustainable with production numbers out around Oct 1st, I expect the SP will pop. Then some obscure, uninformed analyst will yell 'fire in the theatre' and all the bears will crash for the exits. Just like last time, rince, repeat. SSDQ. That's how W/S makes money on the churn. Tesla can't be free of these barnacles soon enough.

Cheers!

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Did you watch TSLA from July 2-4? Before market open on Mon Jul 2, Elon tweeted Tesla had produced over 5,000 Model 3s in the past 7 days, thus achieving their goal for end-of-Q2 production rate. TSLA opened up nearly $20 vs Friday's close, and rose to $364.78 in early trading.

Then a Wall St analyst released a note to clients saying 'it can't last'. And it didn't, at least not the SP, which plunged $30 in 3 hrs, finally bottoming out at $296.22 on Thu, Jul 5. That's a $70 haircut based on some idiot's opinion, which is readily available for purchase on Wall St, fact-lite, and greedily consumed. Here's an after-action report:

CNBC.com Jul 2, 2018 -- Tesla drops after analyst says its production rate is not 'sustainable'

View attachment 336722
So here we are now, 78 days later, and TSLA was $298.33 at close today. Next, after proving Model 3 is sustainable with production numbers out around Oct 1st, I expect the SP will pop. Then some obscure, uninformed analyst will yell 'fire in the theatre' and all the bears will crash for the exits. Just like last time, rince, repeat. SSDQ. That's how W/S makes money on the churn. Tesla can't be free of these barnacles soon enough.

Cheers!

I agree that could happen after the deliveries report, though the “uninformed” analyst will be arguing that it won’t be profitable, rather than arguing that it can’t last. So, I anticipate a spike on strong deliveries, but likely followed by a fade. Trade ‘em accordingly.

I see less danger of that after the Q3 ER in November. Bears will argue that it’s a one-off and unsustainable, which will temper the spike somewhat, I don’t think they’ll be able to stop it. I think it’ll be a very good day for longs, as long as they aren’t expecting a squeeze.