TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Leo9]

One of the first you learn in university is never to even create a chard without written metrics on the x and y axis. Regardless if its correct or manipulated its worthless for a reader if you post it like you did.

Well, I agree. I didn't see that the chart was cut, sorry about that.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Picked up 3 more shares earlier at 255. I'm super small time but still hold the most I ever have (24).

I should do you all a favor and post what my limit buy number is, so you can all grab the bottom that day approximately $5 bucks below it!

 

[Drax7]

The Fed is basically jaw boning the interest rate market to slow down
The real economy, so that they will have less tightening to do to avert
Inflation.

It’s their old playbook. The Phillips curve which was supposedly dead
Is mostly what they follow. Low unemployment equates with inflation and hence growth is
Bad.

Growth is bad , hence the stock market is fearful of growth. If productivity
Offsets inflation, then growth is good.

This mumbo jumbo Usually comes to an end when the fed signals its backing off.

 

[30seconds]

So in 30 months Tesla went from revealing the Model 3 to volume production resulting in quarterly revenues growing from $1.6B to ~$5.6B and likely cash flow positive. Plus sight to grown revenue another 20%+ with continued ramp of the 3.

With the anticipated announcement of the Y in the first part of next year we are looking at the company growing revenue by an additional $4 to $5B per quarter in 2021. And that is if Tesla does not improve on production timing or output from the 3 to the Y.

I'm expecting that the China GF starts to produce Model 3 in Q4 2020 and the Y in mid 2021. I also expect that the China GF to have a larger output than Fremont bringing the company's production to 1m/ year.

Not many companies with the ability to add $20-$25B in revenue over the next couple of years

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Will pick up 10 more if we go to 248 again, to bring down my average. Will have a total of 110 then and dry powder for 30-40 more.

 

[dmunjal]

The Fed is basically jaw boning the interest rate market to slow down
The real economy, so that they will have less tightening to do to avert
Inflation.

It’s their old playbook. The Phillips curve which was supposedly dead
Is mostly what they follow. Low unemployment equates with inflation and hence growth is
Bad.

Growth is bad , hence the stock market is fearful of growth. If productivity
Offsets inflation, then growth is good.

This mumbo jumbo Usually comes to an end when the fed signals its backing off.

They're also raising rates enough to give them dry powder when and if a recession comes.

 

[Unpilot]

So in 30 months Tesla went from revealing the Model 3 to volume production resulting in quarterly revenues growing from $1.6B to ~$5.6B and likely cash flow positive. Plus sight to grown revenue another 20%+ with continued ramp of the 3.

With the anticipated announcement of the Y in the first part of next year we are looking at the company growing revenue by an additional $4 to $5B per quarter in 2021. And that is if Tesla does not improve on production timing or output from the 3 to the Y.

I'm expecting that the China GF starts to produce Model 3 in Q4 2020 and the Y in mid 2021. I also expect that the China GF to have a larger output than Fremont bringing the company's production to 1m/ year.

Not many companies with the ability to add $20-$25B in revenue over the next couple of years

Yep the future is bright even with all the smoke screens that get thrown up on a daily basis.

 

[tivoboy]

Do you have any particular insight as to how macros are going to trend between here and ER? Just assuming that they'll continue following whatever line they've been on in the past couple days isn't necessarily a wise approach

My bet is macros will trend down, but will certainly be volatility. Election coming. Saudi showdown, rising energy and materials costs and rising domestic yields, and earnings season has begun.

 

[ebyard]

Waiting for my broker to sort my W-8BEN form so I can pick up some stock. Great to know the IRS now has my details

 

[tivoboy]

Slides without dates and values usually are intended to spread FUD. I do not know how you manipulated that chard but this is what I see:

View attachment 342476

Looks quite different to yours right?!

Strong long term support at 241 - 251 over the last 18 months. In the past this has been a great buying level and opportunity and with fundamentals stronger than ever its hard to imagine that this does not apply today too.

If you expect it to fall below then you may experience the unexpected.

Run this chart back to May 2017.

 

[larmor]

So in 30 months Tesla went from revealing the Model 3 to volume production resulting in quarterly revenues growing from $1.6B to ~$5.6B and likely cash flow positive. Plus sight to grown revenue another 20%+ with continued ramp of the 3.

With the anticipated announcement of the Y in the first part of next year we are looking at the company growing revenue by an additional $4 to $5B per quarter in 2021. And that is if Tesla does not improve on production timing or output from the 3 to the Y.

I'm expecting that the China GF starts to produce Model 3 in Q4 2020 and the Y in mid 2021. I also expect that the China GF to have a larger output than Fremont bringing the company's production to 1m/ year.

Not many companies with the ability to add $20-$25B in revenue over the next couple of years

But if a company puts out negative press and colludes with others to do the same on one paradigm-shifting company they can use that as a gateway to make money off of that company... Just saying...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Run this chart back to May 2017.

That chart does go back to May 2017... it says that right on the bottom...

 

[tivoboy]

That chart does go back to May 2017... it says that right on the bottom...

Sorry, meant March 2017. March 1, 2017.

 

[Krugerrand]

Totally off-topic, but my new T-shirt arrived today

View attachment 342445

Copycat.

 

[X Fan]

So in 30 months Tesla went from revealing the Model 3 to volume production resulting in quarterly revenues growing from $1.6B to ~$5.6B and likely cash flow positive. Plus sight to grown revenue another 20%+ with continued ramp of the 3.

With the anticipated announcement of the Y in the first part of next year we are looking at the company growing revenue by an additional $4 to $5B per quarter in 2021. And that is if Tesla does not improve on production timing or output from the 3 to the Y.

I'm expecting that the China GF starts to produce Model 3 in Q4 2020 and the Y in mid 2021. I also expect that the China GF to have a larger output than Fremont bringing the company's production to 1m/ year.

Not many companies with the ability to add $20-$25B in revenue over the next couple of years

FWIW: there are macro risks that we should consider.

I worry that that we're due for a global market dip (and as always the economists will call the dip 6 months after it happens) and of course that will impact Automobile sales.

Also, in the US, the American buyer is continuing to extend the loan period, finance higher amounts and as a byproduct the average monthly loan amount is increasing.....higher interest rates will exacerbate that increase.

So, ignoring balance sheet needs, those two risks could derail our bullish sentiment.

Average New Vehicle Cost is $36,000+ And Loan Delinquencies Are Up

An excerpt from the article:
"Data from credit agency Experian in 2017 shows that the average loan term for a new car in the U.S. was 68 months. That was an all-time high, and is expected to climb when the data is updated this year. The average amount financed was $30,032, the first time that amount has gone over $30,000. That amount is also expected to climb this year. The average monthly loan was $503, the first time the amount has gone over $500. That, too, is a trend expected to continue to rise."

btw: I should add.....with average new vehicle cost at $36K, the base Model 3 is priced right at the average.

Thus, presuming Tesla can manufacture in quantity/lower cost to manufacture than one of the short arguments that Tesla doesn't have more to run with the Model 3 is nonsense.

 

[traxila]

Yeah, a lot of people sitting on their hands. Buyer's strike for sure.

Think everyone wants a screaming buy at this point. It already is....but keeps going down.

Macros still digesting additional rate hikes in addition to everything else.

2.44% yield on 6 month T Bill. Nice alternative for the wary. State and local tax free.

Have to admit, this point tired of buying on the way down. Still trying to manage positions I took post tweet which I would have never taken. Will buy more at some point but can't really say when.

 

[ezevphl]

I haven't seen this mentioned here yet. Israel is requiring all new cars to be EVs in just over a decade.
Israel will ban sale of new gasoline or diesel vehicles in 2030
I know larger countries have bans in place, but most of those include allowing hybrids as far as I know.
This is a total ban that includes commercial trucks. (which could be EV or CNG)

I believe there was something in the news about Musk visiting Israel earlier in the year too.

 

[GBleck]

It’s possible that algos and the uninformed are picking this up as a negative for Tesla, but anyone who’s done more than 10 minutes of homework should recognize it as a positive or at least a neutral.

Not sure his algorithmic trading so much as it’s institutional investors trading market segment for “auto manufacturing” or “US auto manufacturing”. Over a 3-6 month period Tesla tracks F and GM fairly close with a few spikes up or down then regressing back to the average.

 

[Krugerrand]

Drove up then down the almost 8 miles of the Mount Washington Auto Road in New Hampshire yesterday, a 6288 foot elevation. Winds were 50 to 60 MPH with higher gusts at higher elevations. Drive was a ton of fun, until visibility dropped to almost nothing once in the clouds. Couldn’t manage more than about 10 to 15 MPH with slower traffic ahead, not that I would have gone faster due to the extreme conditions.

While extreme conditions are rare for normal driving, the Tesla showed its strength on the way back down. Passing all of the ICE vehicles that were ridding their brakes as they had to pull off at the multiple turnouts to cool their brakes, was something that I was very happy to have been driving an EV with regen braking. That, and not having to worry about engine overheating and stopping at the few places we passed that had water to replenish engine coolant.

Once out of the clouds, it was a blast to drive, and even a big Model S handled it with ease. Would love to have the road to myself, and even better in a Model 3! Just not in almost zero visibility next time.

No real market action, sorry, other than I put in a buy limit order pre market at $250 on Monday and had my phone go off on the drive up from home when it hit. Sadly the other lower bids I had set did not. Where are the shorts when you need them? Oh, and not the shorts I almost needed to change when the car in front of me disappeared, and it was about 20 feet ahead, and all I could think of was the phrase “first you say it, then you do it!”

Yes, mountain driving is how you convince the people with the pickles up their butts. If that kind of a driving experience doesn’t bring them out of their ICEs forever coma, then too stupid to live.

The S IS fun on a mountain but the 3 is ??? Not sure a word exists to describe that level of fun.

 

[Leo9]

AMZN, MSFT almost -4% wow, pure fear in the market!