EVNow
Well-Known Member
I like the idea of setting up in Canada a bit better. I doubt we'll have any kind of prolonged tariff war with Canada. They might also be more willing to financially help Tesla buy the plant.
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Good day today, substantially outperforming the indices. That said, today was a huge up day for growth stocks and Tesla was only the fourth best performer in a list of 12 stocks I track, which was surprising.Speaks to more of a rotation going on under the broader indexes back to growth rather than any TSLA specific news / activity.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Of topic: When I see a potential new avatar for old (not in years) friend, @Krugerrand I just have to post it. This one can be used for all those times you have to repeat yourself:
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Because you can't hug your children with nuclear arms?
Necessary for cost/time effective interplanetary travel as well as interstellar missions. There's no way SpaceX haven't already explored the idea, although I can see why it wouldn't be talked about.
Could be that ...but I saw that news early today...so not really new.
I think tech is feeling the effects of 10% tariff threat on iPhone made soon after the close.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Okay, but what's up then? Never seen this before w/o news:
EDIT: Okay, just heard the iPhone/Tarrifs news. Thx.
It's more about China Tariffs.. OI said he would put them on Jan1, without a deal.
Krugerrand said: ↑
"You believed that? "
Could the Y ramp be yet another bet the company near disaster? The possibility can't be ruled out. However there are many good reasons that Y ramp problems (of course there will be plenty) are very unlikely to threaten the company's solvency.
First, instead of operating cash from only S and X (and cash reserves) supporting the build out of manufacturing lines designed to triple annual production, the Y ramp's build cash will be supported by cash generated each quarter by S, X and 3 sales. Even if the Y ramp bled cash at the same rate as 3, that could be sustained for as long as needed.
Second, the Grohman acquisition integration with Tesla engineering is much, much further along now than it was in 2017.
The single biggest mistake in the 3 ramp was using an outside firm to build key portions of the battery pack lines. I don't imagine that lesson is going to be forgotten anytime soon. Tesla generally recognizes major mistakes and learns from them. Finding the next sweet spot between robotic tasks and ones people can still do better is another lesson. We can be certain they will again over reach on some automation, but they will have plans in place to correct more rapidly. Musk will set unrealistic targets as always, but the delays should be less and the financial risks from those delays will be less threatening.
"You believed that? "
Could the Y ramp be yet another bet the company near disaster? The possibility can't be ruled out. However there are many good reasons that Y ramp problems (of course there will be plenty) are very unlikely to threaten the company's solvency.
First, instead of operating cash from only S and X (and cash reserves) supporting the build out of manufacturing lines designed to triple annual production, the Y ramp's build cash will be supported by cash generated each quarter by S, X and 3 sales. Even if the Y ramp bled cash at the same rate as 3, that could be sustained for as long as needed.
Second, the Grohman acquisition integration with Tesla engineering is much, much further along now than it was in 2017.
The single biggest mistake in the 3 ramp was using an outside firm to build key portions of the battery pack lines. I don't imagine that lesson is going to be forgotten anytime soon. Tesla generally recognizes major mistakes and learns from them. Finding the next sweet spot between robotic tasks and ones people can still do better is another lesson. We can be certain they will again over reach on some automation, but they will have plans in place to correct more rapidly. Musk will set unrealistic targets as always, but the delays should be less and the financial risks from those delays will be less threatening.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
I think our odds of saving Earth are about one in three. I put our odds of a Mars colonisation surviving without Earth support at about one in three hundred. Happy to see the project continue, a) because it's a 'unifier', something to help us realise we are all earthlings and b) because stretching technology to the limits can deliver surprisingly useful tech that nobody entertained at the outset. But the idea of going to Mars to create a backup of ourselves is nuts. Ditto for other interstellar missions. Happy to be proven wrong - but look around - so many problems to solve right here that are currently getting the better of us - a hundred times harder in space.
You mean besides the fact that Elon said he would never do that again? The only reason the Model 3 ramp was a problem was that the S&X profits weren't enough to fund it, so they had to raise cash to get the Model 3 going. The Model 3 is making enough cash that it can fund the Model Y, even if they hit ramp issues. They just have to pace themselves to the amount of money the Model 3 is generating. The only issue would be if Model 3 demand fell off a cliff worldwide. (While possible is highly unlikely.)
Actually they overcame that fairly quickly. The biggest issue, in my opinion, was over-automating, which took much longer to overcome, and even required making a second GA line.
This is what people said after the model X fiasco, but Tesla found new areas (factory automation) to try and disrupt before figuring out the optimal approach.
I am sure they'll try to do something very different with the Y, like automating the harnesses or some other part of design / production, that will massively differentiate Tesla either on the product front or more likely on the manufacturing capability front. There will be a lot of long-term advantages from this, but not before inflicting some 'learnings' on the stakeholder group.
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